There's a crucial game at the bottom of the Premier League as West Brom host Fulham on Saturday afternoon. Joe Rindl has a preview and a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt e.w Matheus Pereira to score first at 9/1 (bet365) (paying 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
West Brom v Fulham
- 15:00 GMT on BBC One & BBC iPlayer
- Match odds: Home 11/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 5/4
If ever there was a game that would fall into the must-win bracket, it’s this one. Eighteenth-placed Fulham - with 13 points, five off safety - travel to West Brom, two points further back in 19th.
To say both sides could do with a win is an understatement. A 3-2 victory over rivals Wolves and a point away to Liverpool are the only success stories for the Baggies since Sam Allardyce took the reins. It’s a stretch that’s seen four defeats from six in the league.
Meanwhile, no side is currently on a longer winless run in the top flight than Fulham. The Cottagers have amassed three draws and six defeats since their last victory against Leicester in November.
With both sides so out of form it’s hard to predict an outright winner, so I'm steering clear - especially when there is little to no value in any of the outcomes.
It could be worth a play in the overs, though.
West Brom have lost each of their last five home league games, shipping at least three goals each time. Fulham’s clean sheet against Brighton last time out was their first away from home in the league this season. They now have the chance to keep consecutive Premier League shutouts on their travels for the first time since August 2013; don't bank on it.
Since Allardyce was named West Brom boss, Baggies games have included 27 goals across seven matches, an absurd average of 3.86.
But over 2.5 goals is a skinny 13/10, and one more goal takes us to 3/1. That's still not quite enough for this tipster, given Fulham's encouraging defensive displays in recent weeks, but you may disagree.
Matheus Pereira before Jan 9
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) January 19, 2021
😬 19 games: One goal
Matheus Pereira since Jan 9
🔥 Three games: Four goals
🚀 West Ham have conceded for the first time in 2021
💥👇 #WHUWBA #WBApic.twitter.com/zP93eIayDa
Instead, what I think offers real value is backing Matheus Pereira in the goalscorer markets.
He leads West Brom’s goalscoring and assist charts this season and I expect him to make an impact against Scott Parker’s team. The attacking midfielder has been a new man of late, netting four times in January having only scored once this season before the turn of the year.
Pereira has taken direct free-kicks for a while now, but he's also inherited penalty duties. For him to score first is an incredible 9/1 with bet365 - simply too big.
I wouldn't blame you for playing it safe and taking him anytime at 10/3, which in itself is superb. But considering the Brazilian has twice as many goals as the next Albion player in the league this season, I'm happy to back him each-way to get 3/1 on him anytime as well.
If you were looking for Fulham players to back, Bobby Decordova-Reid is a decent shout as the visitors’ leading marksman, priced at 4/1 to break the deadlock.
But Pereira is the value.
Score prediction: West Brom 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
West Brom v Fulham best bets
Matheus Pereira to score first e.w at 9/1
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (28/01/21)
Opta facts
- West Bromwich Albion are winless in their last eight Premier League matches against Fulham (D4 L4), since a 2-1 win in October 2010 under Roberto Di Matteo.
- Three of the last four league meetings between West Brom and Fulham at the Hawthorns have been draws, with Fulham winning the other 2-1 on New Year’s Day 2013.
- West Brom have lost each of their last five home league games, shipping at least three goals each time. In English Football League history, only Rochdale have ever lost more consecutively on home soil while shipping 3+ goals each time, losing seven in a row in Third Division North between February-May 1932.
- Each of the last 21 Premier League goals scored at The Hawthorns has been scored against West Bromwich Albion – it’s the longest run of goals at a stadium scored against a single team in the competition’s history.
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