Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt West Brom to win at 7/2 (General)
1pt Under 1.5 Goals at 13/5 (Paddy Power)
It is probably something of an understatement to say that West Brom were fortunate to come away from the Amex Stadium with all three points against Brighton at the weekend, the Seagulls missing two penalties, an open-net, and falling foul to one of the most bizarre disallowed goals of the season.
Kick-off time: Thursday, 18:00 GMT
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 16/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 17/20
Having said that, Sam Allardyce may feel that his side merely got what they deserved based on their previous performances, drawing 1-1 at home to Manchester United and 0-0 away at Burnley, despite creating better chances than both their opponents in those matches – generating an expected goals for (xGF) total of 2.62 over those matches, while conceding chances equating to just 1.24 xGA.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
There have been definite signs of late that Allardyce is starting to turn things around at The Hawthorns. Whether that proves too little too late will become apparent in the coming months, but the Baggies are in better form now than they arguably have been all season, and they come into this fixture unbeaten in their last three matches.
West Brom’s home form, and in particular their home defence, has cost them dearly this season, conceding a league-high total of 32 goals from their 13 fixtures at The Hawthorns, but that has been addressed by “Big Sam” and his team and West Brom are now unbeaten in their last three matches at home, picking up five points and conceding just three goals.
Unfortunately for West Brom, Everton themselves arrive in the West Midlands with their tails up, supplementing their historic 2-0 defeat of Liverpool at Anfield with a hard-fought victory over Southampton on Monday night.
With Chelsea not kicking off until later in the evening, and West Ham not playing until Monday, a win for Everton would take them into the top four, but inconsistency has been Everton’s biggest foe this season, and on more than one occasion this term the Toffees have followed an impressive run of wins with an unexpected defeat.
This has all the hallmarks of a particularly sticky fixture for Carlo Ancelotti’s men, particularly given the quick turnover they have had to endure, and at the current prices, it could be worth siding with a WEST BROM WIN.
West Brom do look slight value at a general price of 7/2, but there could be another angle into this match.
West Brom have undoubtedly tightened up at the back in recent weeks, conceding just one goal in their last three matches, while Everton haven’t conceded a goal in their last two.
Under 2.5 goals is interesting at 10/11, particularly given it has landed in each of West Brom’s last four matches, and in three of Everton’s last four, but by the same token UNDER 1.5 GOALS also makes appeal, having landed in the Baggies’ last two fixtures and in Everton’s most recent match.
It is also priced up at a much more appetising 13/5 and looks worth chancing given the recent defensive soundness of these two teams.
West Brom v Everton score prediction and best bets
- West Brom to win at 7/2 (General)
- Under 1.5 Goals at 13/5 (Paddy Power)
Score Prediction: West Brom 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT on 02/03/21
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
