West Brom v Brighton
West Brom fought valiantly with 10 men against Burnley last weekend, looking the better side throughout despite Semi Ajayi’s early red card – indeed their efforts were reflected in the expected goals: BUR 0.63 – 1.42 WBA.
They probably would have settled for a point before that clash - and certainly after Ajayi was dismissed - but it was ultimately a missed opportunity to secure an important win against fellow relegation candidates.
Truthfully, their chances of maintaining their Premier League status now seem incredibly slim. It’s not a surprise to see the club rooted to the bottom of Infogol’s expected league table based on expected points (xP), either.
Their performances have fell short of the required standard all season and their underlying numbers, averaging 0.86 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.94 expected goals against (xGA) per game, explain their current predicament – they’re woeful.
No team has a worse overall process than the Baggies, and Brighton will surely view them as the perfect opportunity to bounce back from their head-scratching Crystal Palace defeat (xG: BRI 3.03 – 0.27 CRY).
Once again, Brighton dominated that game without emerging with anything to show for it, a staggering trend that they continue to fall victim to at The Amex this season.
They’re playing away here, though, and they beat Liverpool at Anfield relatively recently, demonstrating they are more than capable travelers.
Graham Potter’s side have created an average of 1.09 xGF per game when on the road this term, and while that’s mediocre attacking output, it’s worth remembering they’re up against the league’s worst defence according to expected goals.
Brighton have consistently shown they have enough quality to fashion an abundance of opportunities and they should find joy against this poor West Brom side.
The even money available with several firms for BRIGHTON TO WIN seems fair considering their strong numbers this campaign, and they can win the three points, compounding West Brom’s misery.
Score prediction: West Brom 0-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
West Brom v Brighton best bets
- 1pt Brighton to win at Evens (General)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT on 25/02/21
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