Ben Coley is going for a red card in the Premier League clash between Chelsea and Manchester United.
Super Sunday
Tottenham v Crystal Palace (1200 GMT, BT Sport 1)
Show me a Spurs fan who doesn’t 100 per cent expect a 1-0 Crystal Palace victory (Zaha 78) in this one, and I’ll show you a liar.
It’s facetious, but not entirely baseless. There is, inevitably, a sense of ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ about this following the dizzying high of Wednesday night’s stunning 3-1 victory over the European champions at Wembley. Obvious parallels have been drawn between this victory and the glory, glory nights against the Milan sides in 2010/11, and it’s therefore perhaps worth noting that the 3-1 victory over Inter was followed by a 4-2 defeat at Bolton and the 1-0 win over AC Milan in the San Siro by a 3-1 loss at Blackpool.
With Crystal Palace, and Wilfried Zaha in particular, showing signs of life recently, the potential "brought crashing back to earth" narrative is an easy construct. Not least because Wednesday’s victory came at a cost: both Hugo Lloris and Toby Alderweireld miss out here.
But 2017 Spurs, it almost goes without saying, are a very different beast to 2010 Spurs. Michel Vorm and Davinson Sanchez are perfectly adequate replacements for the missing duo, while Dele Alli’s return to his captivating, mischievous best – as predicted after the Manchester United defeat by Mauricio Pochettino – is well timed.
Double-figure quotes about the away win here are admittedly eye-catching, but any sober assessment of a team with no away points or goals this season against a team third in the table and coming off one of the greatest wins in their history can only go one way. Palace’s away form in all competitions this season reads LLLLLL, with one goal scored and 16 conceded.
The big concern for Palace is not so much their own lack of goals – although that is undoubtedly a worry – but their inability to keep them out. They’ve shipped nine in Manchester already this season, and another four in Bristol.
If Spurs are anything like as sharp as in midweek, they’ll surely get the job done.
As for punting opportunities at slightly better odds than the 3/10 quotes for the hosts, there looks to be a spot of value to be found on all Spurs’ likeliest goalscorers against that porous Palace defence. Christian Eriksen has scored in seven of his last 14 games for club and country (and got the winner at Palace last season) yet is north of 2/1 anytime in places (and as short as 11/10 elsewhere).
Alli is odds-against to get on the scoresheet having netted in his last three at Wembley. And Harry Kane is a best of 15/8 to score two or more goals – something he’s done every time he’s got on the scoresheet for Spurs this season (six in 13 in all comps, four in nine in the Premier League).
Dave Tickner's prediction: Tottenham 3-0 Crystal Palace - Sky Bet odds 15/2
Manchester City v Arsenal (1415 GMT, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)
Short of their Champions League trips to Barcelona and perhaps Munich, Arsenal are just not a club who you can back at anything even close to 13/2. It's a remarkable price, in many respects, and there's potential for it to get bigger still come kick-off at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday.
The reason is pretty obvious: while Arsenal trudge miserably through their Europa League group and seem to stumble every other week domestically, Manchester City are flying. They dispensed with an outstanding Napoli side away from home a day before Sunday's opponents, albeit much-changed, drew 0-0 with Red Star Belgrade. They've won every meaningful game since a bizarre 1-1 draw with Everton in August.
City are, it goes without saying, the best team in the Premier League. They boast its best player, Kevin De Bruyne, and while Harry Kane deserves to be called the best striker, Jesus and Sergio Aguero might just represent the best strike force. With Raheem Sterling scoring for fun, Leroy Sane improving by the week and David Silva as fluid a conductor as he ever has been, their only flaws are in defence and even they are not particularly serious.
Hope for Arsenal lies in their being Arsenal. When they won this fixture 2-0 in January 2015, it was City's first defeat in 14 games; last season's FA Cup semi-final victory came on the heels of their own cowardly displays against the likes of Crystal Palace and West Ham. This year, they've been thumped 4-0 on Merseyside, but they've won 5-2 as well. The disparity between the Gunners at their best and at their worst is massive.
As such, they might just be worth a bet here. They have a puncher's chance at least and while the Europa League turnaround might be considered an issue, so far that simply hasn't been the case. The aforementioned 5-2 win at Everton came three days after a trip to Belgrade, while they played particularly well in a 0-0 draw with Chelsea following a hard-fought victory over Cologne. That's because Arsene Wenger has made full use of his squad in the Europa League and it's perfectly possible that there are 11 changes to his starting line-up here.
City, on the other hand, were at something approaching full strength in Naples with the exception of Vincent Kompany, who seems likely to miss out again. His calming influence at the back has long been important and while City have kept eight clean sheets in his absence, the likes of Stoke and West Brom have managed to score twice. It seems fair to expect that Arsenal will have their chances.
Now, what's certain is that City will have theirs - the visitors are more than capable of helping their hosts to a convincing win, not that they need help. But consider this: City are shorter (11/2) to beat Arsenal by four clear goals, something they last managed in 1905, than the Gunners are to win the game. However big an impression Pep Guardiola's side have made, that seems an overreaction. Everything has its price, and this one just looks too big.
Ben Coley's prediction: Man City 2-3 Arsenal - Sky Bet odds 40/1
Chelsea v Manchester United (1630 GMT, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)
Even if Manchester City put five past Arsenal and extend their lead at the top of the table, the result will come a little late to affect plans for this game. Otherwise, within lies an interesting question: to what extent, if any, will City's brazen march towards the title alter how pragmatists like Jose Mourinho and, to a lesser extent, Antonio Conte, go about their business?
If this is day one of the season, both men shake hands on a 0-0 draw. Nothing to see here, no harm done. Yet it's a hard sell, for Mourinho especially, to persist with getting away from fixtures like this relatively unscathed if City are winning them. The excellent James Richardson has done the leg work for us here to confirm that in six away games against rivals within the so-called big six, Mourinho's United have scored one goal. While the alarming fact is they've won none of them, the interesting one for punters is that three of the six have ended goalless.
I strongly suspect that Mourinho will take a longer-term view than I do; he'll say we're in the first week of November, and expect City to hit a bump at some stage. After all, it happened last season and at around this time, as Chelsea took control of the division. With that in mind, 0-0 is seriously tempting at 15/2.
The trouble is, Chelsea aren't defending well enough to be absolutely trusted to keep up their side of the bargain. They've managed just one clean sheet in eight games, conceding six across two meetings with Roma and even allowing Crystal Palace to get off the mark for the season three weeks ago. Antonio Conte is under genuine pressure and he probably deserves to be.
All that being said, there's a strong chance that United will be less adventurous than the likes of Burnley and Watford here. Unlike those sides, they very much do have something to lose and that's reflected in their performances in games like these. There's just no way they will come to Mourinho's former stomping ground and attempt to make a statement.
It's 37/40 that one or both teams fail to score - the 'no' option on your BTTS coupon - and that's perfectly fair. It's a bet which would've paid out in each of the previous five meetings of these sides had Diego Costa not popped up to level things in the 90th minute of this fixture two seasons ago, and there's only been one goal in the two games Chelsea have hosted against 'title rivals' this season.
United kept a clean sheet against Spurs and drew 0-0 with Liverpool, their biggest games so far, and they've kept three clean sheets from five away from home. Their preparations for this game will revolve around keeping a fourth and for all that they're going to struggle to mount a serious title challenge this season, they are reliable when it comes to achieving the set target.
Much of this is factored into the prices discussed above. You can argue that 15/2 about no goalscorer is still generous and it probably is, but there's just something nagging away at me - that Chelsea defence, the potential for greater urgency as the season develops - which means I want to search further for the best bet. That search ends with prices in the region of 3/1 that there's a sending off in the match.
Part of the logic is the magnitude of this fixture, amplified by Mourinho's involvement, and it can actually be used to undermine the selection. We've all seen referees acknowledge what's at stake and issue warning after warning, rather than make their mark with an early card which sets us on the path to a winner.
Anthony Taylor, however, is perhaps more likely to go down the card route. He dished out seven yellows when Chelsea beat Spurs at Wembley, his only big-six game of the season, and that was in fact the only one of the last four Chelsea games he's officiated which passed without a red. There have been six reds in the 14 meetings of these sides since the beginning of the 2012/13 season, Chelsea lead the red-card count of all 20 Premier League sides this season, and the price looks a shade generous.
Ben Coley's prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Man United - Sky Bet odds 9/2
Everton v Watford (1630 GMT)
Everton have lost their last five, are winless in seven, shipped five goals when last playing at Goodison Park and are not much bigger than even-money to beat Watford on Sunday.
I do get it - I'm in the increasingly small camp believing they'll climb away from the bottom of the table, once proper guidance is in place and someone chimes in with a goal or two. But I also get why fans of the club would be more sceptical, and not for a second would I consider backing them here.
Marco Silva's Watford might be set up to work well on the road. Wins at Bournemouth, Southampton and Swansea certainly suggest as much, while they made Chelsea work hard and clawed themselves to a point at West Brom. They are as fast as they are physical and are all singing from the same hymn sheet.
Most pertinently, they score goals - 10 to be precise, spread equally across their five away games. That's a real problem for Everton, who have managed two on the same day just once in the Premier League, when coming from behind to beat Bournemouth, and were sent to the field in France on Thursday without a striker.
This isn't going away, and David Unsworth is almost certainly not the man to find a solution, so prices close to 3/1 about the away win have to be worth considering. A straightforward weights-and-measures assessment of this game tells you that the better side at this moment in time are Watford, who are also more comfortable away from Vicarage Road and boast a full-time, proven manager, foreign though he may well be.
What more is there to say? Form is never the only guide - it ebbs and flows, and prices tend to overreact to it - but take away club names and everything points towards Watford. I daresay they even have the better starting XI right now, even allowing for the absence of suspended captain Troy Deeney.
Another option for those who really do believe in the numbers is to back Watford to score two goals away from home for the sixth game running, a 7/2 shot, or the BTTS 'no' option at 11/10. Both have their merits but I take issue with the idea that Watford have little more than a 25 per cent chance of winning this game, a result which could take them as high as sixth and leave Everton as low as 19th.
Ben Coley's prediction: Everton 0-2 Watford - Sky Bet odds 16/1
Recommended bets: Sunday Premier League
1pt Arsenal to beat Manchester City at 13/2
2pts any player to be sent off in Chelsea v Manchester United at 3/1
1pt Watford to beat Everton at 14/5
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Posted at 1600 BST on 04/11/17.
Saturday
Saturday's previews by David John
Stoke v Leicester (1230 GMT, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)
It was hard not to be impressed with the start Claude Puel made as new manager of the Foxes and his players have quickly bought into a "fresh start" mentality at the King Power Stadium.
The electric Demarai Gray seems to have been the chief recipient under the new regime with Puel getting more out of him in 45 minutes against Everton than the winger had produced in the previous 18 months while there looked to be a bit more spring to the step of both Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy.
Puel has continued to tinker when it comes to team strategy and set-up this week so this remains a work in progress while the Potters will more than likely prove a tougher test at home than the rudderless Toffees.
Manager Mark Hughes certainly got his strategy right last week as they dragged an attractive Watford down to their level and pinched all three points thanks to Darren Fletcher’s smart finish from the edge of the box following a corner.
They won’t be pushed around either judged by the brawl at the end of proceedings at Vicarage Road and I doubt a silly thing like an FA charge will deter the home side particularly when it comes to the physical aspect of this fixture.
This has been a very fiery encounter recently and boiled over massively just before Christmas last year so I would not put anyone off looking at a wager on bookings, cards and even a sending off.
But I prefer to side with Leicester’s positive momentum currently and take them to score the first goal of the game at an odds-against quote with the hosts perhaps hitting back to later to grab a point.
Prediction: Stoke 1-1 Leicester - Sky Bet Odds: 5/1
Huddersfield v West Brom (1500 GMT)
Huddersfield’s increasingly dreadful away record heaps the pressure on them back at the John Smith’s Stadium but the flip-side is nothing but positive following an historic 2-1 victory over Manchester United in West Yorkshire.
They carry the burden of favouritism here against a team that has not managed a victory of any sort since the end of August and it would not be the biggest shock to see them rediscover some of the defensive discipline that was so eye-catching in the early weeks of the campaign.
They were more than a match for Liverpool in the first half at Anfield last week and only a misguided header from Tommy Smith straight into the path of Daniel Sturridge eventually saw their resolve broken on the way to a 3-0 reverse.
West Brom have managed just three away goals so far in the Premier League so a successful containment job by the hosts could mean a single goal at the other end will be enough for all three points.
Where that comes from though still remains open for debate with a reliance on the midfield getting forward in numbers to support Laurent Delpoitre but both Tom Ince and Aaron Mooy possess decent engines and the former surely can’t be far away from breaking his duck.
The Baggies were flattered to finish within a goal of Manchester City last weekend as manager Tony Pulis once more hailed a hard-working effort for no profit, although it could have been another City rout if they had been more measured with their 15 chances in the game.
The manager’s future is constantly under scrutiny but the Welshman always relishes this sort of situation and winkling out some sort of result here would be classic Pulis so a low-scoring stalemate seems a reasonable conclusion to reach with a bet on Ince to finally find the target.
Prediction: Huddersfield 1-1 West Brom - Sky Bet Odds: 9/2
Newcastle v Bournemouth (1500 GMT)
Toon were lame at Turf Moor on Monday night in an insipid 1-0 defeat but are a different beast back on Tyneside where they have secured 10 of their 14 Premier League points.
They are around even money for another maximum haul although a lot of possession and positive play under Rafa Benitez is in need of a more consistent end product with the Spaniard still trying to figure out whether compatriots Joselu and Ayoze Perez are long-term solutions up front.
The Cherries have improved their own efforts lately but paid the price for one Simon Francis blunder that saw Chelsea score the only goal of the game last week at the Vitality Stadium.
They begin a run of fixtures which does not see them face a recognised top-flight big gun until Manchester United at Old Trafford in the middle of December so there is some expectation over the next few weeks that a consistent climb away from the relegation zone will commence.
Eddie Howe has rarely seen his side overrun in games with five of their seven top-flight defeats coming by a solitary goal and the Dorset outfit have shown in the past they can emerge from a dip in form and string a run of results together - this is a first big opportunity to confirm that theory.
I am not a great one for suggesting bets based on coincidence but home midfielder Matt Ritchie does look of increased interest in the anytime goalscorer betting in what will be an initial meeting against his former employers.
"I’m chomping at the bit to get a goal," he revealed in an interview earlier this week as the livewire Scot almost got up and running with a blocked effort in their last home fixture against Crystal Palace.
Always seeking to get on the front foot, he shares free-kick duties with Jonjo Shelvey but the latter may struggle to get the ball off him with any sort of chance around the box and a dead-ball strike gives him that additional string to his bow to hit paydirt.
Prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth - Sky Bet Odds: 14/1
Southampton v Burnley (1500 GMT)
I am struggling to figure exactly why Burnley are such a big price for victory on the south coast so I will take advantage with a bet on the in-form Clarets.
Perhaps the potential impending doom of Sean Dyche departing for Everton - he is just about favourite to be the next manager at Goodison Park - hints at an air of growing uncertainty in the dressing room.
I tend to take the man at his word though after his latest post-match interview where he said he is just going to get on with the job in hand at Turf Moor until told otherwise.
To that end then, who is to say Everton are the right option and that he and Burnley have reached the ceiling of their ability at seventh place in the table?
If Dyche is bound for the exit door, then I am sure the group of players he has moulded into an extremely competitive and organised outfit at this level will want to give him a rousing send off against a very beatable Southampton.
Dyche’s opposite number Mauricio Pellegrino has seen his men go unbeaten in three games now but this is looking like a long-term process as familiar issues continue to hamper the home side.
They possess some dynamic attacking players but converting that into goals remains a huge issue and once more against Brighton, they never really threatened to put the game to bed despite taking an early lead.
Dyche’s continued excellence at Burnley has manifested itself into an ability to somehow morph from the worst team away from home into one of the best in the early stages of the season and a fourth victory on their travels in all competitions is a distinct possibility at a very attractive price.
Prediction: Southampton 0-2 Burnley - Sky Bet Odds: 33/1
Swansea v Brighton (1500 GMT)
Five defeats from six makes gloomy reading for Swansea fans but the layers still favour them back at the Liberty Stadium against one of last season’s promoted teams.
The level of the performance they produced at Arsenal last week was encouraging though and Paul Clement was fully justified in believing a repeat would be good enough to beat the majority of the Premier League.
However, spiralling into a losing habit can be extremely hard to snap out of and although the Seagulls have shown no sign of pulling up any trees so far, they go about things in an organised fashion and the confidence arrow is very much pointing in an upward direction.
Anthony Knockaert and Jose Izquierdo are starting to find some form and a creative edge for Chris Hughton while veteran striker Glenn Murray has surprised me at this level and clearly still knows where the goal is with three in his last two outings.
Swansea found themselves in a similarly sticky situation a month or so ago but came up with the goods to defeat Huddersfield 2-0 before reverting to type and losing the next three matches.
There is a chance shadowy figure Wilfrid Bony could be in line for a start but I don’t see him as an immediate solution and the visitors are in good shape to crank up the pressure on Clement and head home with all three points.
Prediction: Swansea 0-1 Brighton - Sky Bet Odds: 13/2
West Ham v Liverpool (1730 GMT, BT Sport 1)
The only consistency when it comes to West Ham is their rampant inconsistency and trying to figure out what will happen next equates to where the ball is going to drop at a roulette table.
As rubbish as they were against Brighton in an awful 3-0 home loss, they were outstanding in their thrilling Carabao Cup fightback against Tottenham before chucking away a 2-0 Premier League advantage last time at Crystal Palace.
Slaven Bilic admitted the 2-2 draw felt like a defeat as the Hammers naively relinquished possession in the Palace box with barely seconds remaining and it will be interesting to see what new ways the home side come up with here in terms of seeing more points disappear down the drain.
Luckily for them, Liverpool can be just as flaky and will more than likely give up an opportunity or 10 for West Ham to score while at the same time attempting to swarm forward and make an impact in the final third.
They laboured away for 45 minutes against Huddersfield at Anfield before making the breakthrough and it was very much the case once again in midweek against Maribor as they staged a second-half rally to win 3-0.
I am sure both managers would like to witness a routine victory from their respective sides with a controlled, tempered display but who I am kidding, this has all the hallmarks of turning into something completely bonkers.
Neither side has shown any inclination towards sensible defending, so another zany 90 minutes in the capital should yield a thoroughly entertaining, if rather unsatisfactory, outcome.
Prediction: West Ham 3-3 Liverpool - Sky Bet Odds: 50/1
Recommended bets: Saturday Premier League
1pt Leicester to score first v Stoke at 9/8
1pt Tom Ince to score anytime v West Brom at 15/4
1pt Matt Ritchie to score anytime v Bournemouth at 14/5
2pts Burnley to beat Southampton at 6/1
1pt over 4.5 goals in West Ham v Liverpool at 15/4
Click here for our transparent tipping record.
Posted at 0705 BST on 03/11/17.
