There are two absolutely cracking fixtures in the Sky Bet Championship on Wednesday evening, and Jake Pearson has analysed both of them, picking out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Wednesday's Championship
1pt Brentford to beat Bournemouth at 6/4
1pt Swansea to beat Reading at 6/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brentford v Bournemouth betting tips
- 17:30 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Football
- Match Odds: Home 29/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 15/8
Brentford and Bournemouth do battle in west London on Wednesday, and it is a game that both promotion-chasing sides will be desperate to win.
The Bees endured a dismal start to the season, winning just four of their opening 12 matches, but they have really pulled themselves together of late and are now unbeaten in 14 league games, winning seven.
This upturn in form had been on the cards for a while, with Brentford recording impressive Expected Goals (xG) figures even when not winning.
In fact, as per Infogol’s xG model, only Blackburn have created more chances this season and no team in the Sky Bet Championship has a better Expected Goals Against (xGA) than the Bees.
Thomas Frank’s men sit top of Infogol’s expected league table - their impressive recent form is no fluke.
After knocking Newcastle out of the Carabao Cup on what was a memorable night, the Bees continued their momentum with a come-from-behind victory over Cardiff on Boxing Day, Sergi Canos demonstrating some clinical finishing to grab a second-half hat-trick.
A Sergi Canos hat-trick ⚽⚽⚽
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) December 27, 2020
15 games unbeaten in all competitions 🔥
The winning-streak continues for Brentford 🤩@BrentfordFC #BrentfordFC @sergicanos pic.twitter.com/SUGARncIe2
Brentford look to have the bit between their teeth now and will take plenty of stopping as they go in search of their fourth successive victory.
Bournemouth are themselves enjoying a good season however, losing just twice since dropping into the Championship.
The Cherries can largely thank their home form for that though, with their points return on the road far from that of a promotion-chasing side. They have won just three times away from the Vitality.
Inconsistency has been something of an issue. They put four past Barnsley and five past Huddersfield earlier this month, but also drew blanks against Swansea and Luton.
Jason Tindall’s men could be struggling for a bit of sharpness as well after a coronavirus outbreak in the Millwall squad led to their game with the Lions being postponed - the Cherries haven’t played since drawing 0-0 at Luton on December 19.
There is little to separate these two in the current standings, both having amassed 38 points (though Bournemouth do have a game in hand), and Brentford scoring 34 goals to Bournemouth’s 35.
They are two of the three highest-scorers in the division, and while that may initially point towards something of a goal-fest, it would be surprising to see both teams approach such an important game in gung-ho fashion.
This is reflected in the betting though, with Under 2.5 goals priced up around 8/11, so there is little to no value in getting involved in that sort of bet. What is worth getting involved in however, is backing Brentford at 6/4 - the biggest price they have been at home all season.
In fact, the Bees have only been odds-against in one other home fixture – 11/10 against Norwich – and while it is fair to nudge their price out a little given the quality of opposition, this looks far too big for a side who have tasted defeat just once at home this term.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Brentford v Bournemouth: Best bets
Brentford to beat Bournemouth at 6/4
Opta facts
- This is the first league meeting between Brentford and Bournemouth since February 2015, with the Bees winning 3-1 at Griffin Park
- Bournemouth are winless in their last six away league games against Brentford (D4 L2) since a 2-0 win in October 2005.
- Brentford lost their final league game of 2019 (0-1 at Millwall), but haven’t lost their final game in consecutive calendar years since a run of three between 2003-2005.
- Bournemouth lost their final league games in both 2018 and 2019, last losing their final league game in three consecutive years between 1995 and 1997.
Swansea v Reading betting tips
- 20:00 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Football
- Match Odds: Home 6/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 23/10
It is fair to say that Swansea and Reading have been the two surprise packages of the season, the Welsh side currently occupying second spot in the Sky Bet Championship, while the Royals look well and truly in the hunt for a play-off spot after a magnificent start to the campaign.
Veljko Paunović’s side won seven of their opening eight matches, but their season has plateaued since then.
It would be harsh to say Reading have been poor recently, particularly given they have won two of their last four matches, but they have been posting some underwhelming numbers in terms of Expected Goals (xG) and may have been a little fortunate to get the better of QPR and Luton.
After a really good start to the season in an attacking sense, Reading seem to have stalled, created less than 1xG in their last four matches (0.28, 0.43, 0.47, 0.45). It would be a shocking return for a team facing relegation, never mind a team pushing for promotion.
Defensively Reading have been poor this season as well, conceding the seventh-most goals in the Championship. This will be a worry for Paunović as his side face a very efficient Swansea team.
If there is one thing to say about Swansea, it is that they rarely concede. No team can boast a better defensive record this season, with the Swans conceding just 12 goals in 21 matches. That record is even more impressive at home, letting in just four goals in 10 at the Liberty.
Home form has been a big part of Swansea’s success. Huddersfield left with all three points back in October, but since then Steve Cooper's side have not been beaten on home soil, winning five and drawing two.
Swansea come into this match as arguably the in-form team as well, losing just one of their last six matches. Victory over QPR on Boxing Day helped them into the automatic promotion places.
Don’t expect this to be a high-scoring contest, as although Reading have scored the fourth-most goals in the Championship this season, Swansea will be an extremely tough nut to crack.
Matches involving Cooper’s men this season have averaged just 1.8 goals, while over 2.5 has landed in just three of their 21 games.
Initially an unders bet looked the order of the day based on that logic, but the bookies look to have priced that market accordingly. The win-draw-win market could offer a glimmer of value however, with Swansea potentially over priced at 6/5.
Had you blindly backed Swansea in every match this season you would be showing roughly five points profit, which tells us that the bookmakers have not yet got to grips with just how good the Swans are.
Reading will find it difficult to expose this home defence, and it is difficult to see anything other than a Swansea victory.
Score prediction: Swansea 1-0 Reading (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Swansea v Reading: Best bets
Opta facts
- Swansea are unbeaten in their last 11 league meetings with Reading (W6 D5) since a 0-4 loss in September 2008.
- Reading haven’t won any of their last six away league games against Swansea, alternating between defeat and a draw since a 1-0 win in February 2001.
- Swansea have won their final league game in just one of the last seven calendar years (D4 L2), winning 2-1 at Watford in 2017.
- This is the fourth consecutive calendar year that Reading are playing their final game away from home, with the Royals unbeaten in their previous three (W1 D2).
Odds correct at 16:58 GMT 29/12/20
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