Free Champions League football betting tips: Man Utd v PSG, Sevilla v Chelsea

Recommended bets

2pts Man Utd/Draw double chance and BTTS v PSG at 13/10

1pt Man Utd to beat PSG and BTTS at 15/4

1pt Man Utd to score a penalty against PSG at 9/2

2pts Under 2.5 goals in Sevilla v Chelsea at 10/11

1pt Under 1.5 goals in Sevilla v Chelsea at 13/5

1pt Olivier Giroud to score first in Sevilla v Chelsea at 6/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Manchester United v Paris Saint-Germain

• 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
• Match odds: Home 7/4 | Draw 13/4 | Away 7/5

In simple terms, Manchester United have won their last four games, responding emphatically to back-to-back defeats by Arsenal and Istanbul Basaksehir that had once again shunted Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to the edge of the managerial precipice. But the devil is in the detail.

Only one of those victories, last week's 4-1 thrashing of Basaksehir, has been anything close to straightforward. The 1-0 win over struggling West Brom came thanks to a retaken penalty, and with extra fortune as when Albion won their own spot-kick the decision was controversially overturned by the VAR.

Those victories were sandwiched by come-from-behind triumphs at Everton (3-1) and Southampton (3-2), with the latter particularly dramatic as substitute Edinson Cavani single-handedly turned the game on its head.

United are erratic, of that there is little doubt, but in they actually played very well for much of their wins over Saints and Everton - Basaksehir were crushed in the first half. Now they face a Paris Saint-Germain side who have faired little better in the consistency department this season.

Thomas Tuchel's side, Champions League runners-up to Bayern Munich last term, were simply awful in the reverse fixture and lucky to lose only 2-1.

They may sit top of Ligue 1, but that is more a reflection of the French top-flight than PSG's start to the season.

Their double-header with RB Leipzig saw them lose 2-1 in Germany before clinging on for an undeserved 1-0 win last week, courtesy of an early Neymar penalty. Their past two league matches have been a 3-2 defeat at Monaco, having led 2-0 at half-time, and a 2-2 home draw with Bordeaux.

Although away goals means the Parisians edge Leipzig in the head to head so currently sit second in Group H, three points behind United, only a win at Old Trafford will keep PSG's qualification destiny in their own hands.

But for the hosts, a draw will see them into the last 16 with a game to spare. This all plays directly to the counter-attacking strengths of Manchester United.

Even without that context, the 2/1 price for a home win doesn't stack up. Taken with both teams to score we're looking at a tidy 15/4.

What does have me feeling a little edgy (other than, you know, it's Man Utd) is the prospect of the Red Devils shutting the contest down for the draw in the closing stages, given that it would clinch qualification.

That makes Man Utd/Draw in the double chance and BTTS at 13/10 with Betway an excellent option.

United are looking to make it three home wins from three in Group H, and I am a sucker for the 9/2 odds with bet365 that they make it three from three from the spot as well.

If were looking for trios, PSG have conceded a penalty in their last two away games as well.

Juan Mata, Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes have all scored from 12 yards for the Red Devils this season, so I much prefer it to backing an individual goalscorer.

They have already been awarded eight in 2020/21, following on from the record-breaking haul of 22 last term.

Score prediction: Man Utd 2-1 PSG (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bets:

• Man Utd/Draw double chance and BTTS at 13/10
• Man Utd to beat PSG and BTTS at 15/4
• Man Utd to score a penalty against PSG at 9/2

Sevilla v Chelsea

• 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 3
• Match odds: Home 7/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 6/4

Chelsea's six-game winning run was ended by Tottenham in the Premier League on Sunday, but they remain unbeaten in 14 matches; 11 if defeat on penalties in the Carabao Cup is considered a break in that sequence.

Olivier Giroud's late header against Rennes last week secured safe passage into the next stage of the Champions League with two games to spare, while opponents Sevilla also scored in injury time to beat Krasnodar and join the Blues in the last 16.

Who qualifies as Group E winner, and is therefore seeded for the knockout stage, more or less comes down to Wednesday night's meeting, as they both head into on 10 points - whoever wins will also win the group.

A score draw will mean Chelsea lead the initial head-to-head tie-breaker on away goals. Should the match finish 0-0, as in the reverse fixture, the Blues' far superior goal difference will make Frank Lampard's side heavy favourites to finish top, with both teams expected to win on matchday six.

The onus really is on Sevilla, but I can't see them changing how they operate.

Julen Lopetegui's team are in excellent form themselves having won six of their past seven matches. The Europa League holders have been involved in a few high-scoring affairs this term, including their 3-2 comeback win against Krasnodar and a recent 4-2 victory over Celta Vigo in La Liga - but results like those are rare.

Half of their matches have had under 1.5 goals - four 1-0 wins, two 1-0 defeats and a goalless draw with Chelsea. They drew 1-1 at Barcelona in the league and with Bayern Munich in the Super Cup (losing 2-1 in extra-time).

The Blues have garnered plenty of praise for their improved defensive displays of late, keeping eight clean sheets in 11 matches and conceding only two goals in their past nine games.

The attacking talent Lampard has at his disposal sees under 2.5 goals available at a smidgen shorter than evens with several bookmakers, and that 10/11 price is something not to be sniffed at - neither is the 13/5 for under 1.5.

Chelsea may have thrashed some teams this season, but they've really struggled when faced with top clubs, finding the net just once across five fixtures with Liverpool, Spurs (twice), Manchester United and Sevilla. It makes that unders value worth taking.

In terms of the outright, the bookies are struggling to split these sides - and so am I in truth. The 5/2 available on the draw is where the value is, but my money is staying firmly in my pocket. Instead, in a match expected to be tight, the first goalscorer market is worth a play.

Giroud is a man I'm happy to hold an interest in at 6/1 with bet365. The Frenchman rarely fails to deliver when given his opportunity, and already has seven goals for club and country this term despite starting only once for Chelsea in all competitions. I expect him to be given the nod in Seville.

You can take him each-way to score anytime at 1/3 of those odds, which is as good as you'll find anywhere, but I'm happy to just stick with the first goalscorer punt on this occasion.

Score prediction: Sevilla 0-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bets:

• Under 2.5 goals at 10/11
• Under 1.5 goals at 13/5
• Olivier Giroud to score first at 6/1

Odds correct at 1500 GMT (30/11/20)

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