The Champions League continues on Wednesday with Chelsea and Manchester United in action. Joe Townsend has two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Chelsea (-1 handicap) to beat Rennes at 7/5
2pts Rafael to make 3+ tackles in Basaksehir v Man Utd at 11/10
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Istanbul Basaksehir v Manchester United
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home 13/2 | Draw 7/2 | Away 2/5
It's far from straightforward predicting which Manchester United will walk out on to the pitch in Istanbul on Wednesday evening.
Two impressive wins has them sitting top of their Champions League group, but their worst start in seven years means they're 15th in the Premier League with just six points from their opening six games.
In this era of behind-closed-doors football, should it matter whether you're home or away? Well to United it clearly does as they're five from five in all competitions on the road this season compared with a solitary win from the same number of attempts at Old Trafford. On their travels Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team have fired in 15 goals; even a head-turning 5-0 win over RB Leipzig takes them to just seven in total on their own patch.
Istanbul Basaksehir have lost their opening two group games 2-0 in very different ways, but a Premier League loanee has proved to be their downfall in both. In Leipzig two early goals from Manchester City's Angelino made it a long night of damage limitation, a doggedness they carried into their home tie with Paris Saint-Germain before a brace from on-loan Everton striker Moise Kean broke their resistance after an hour.
They looked impressive for long spells against PSG, so United won't be facing an opponent who willingly rolls over.
While I'm tempted to back Solskjaer's men to follow their Group H rivals' lead, I can't bring myself to take such short prices so soon after Sunday's listless performance against Arsenal - they simply offer too much uncertainty to make an outright punt worthwhile.
Basaksehir may have made a mediocre start in Turkey's Super Lig, sitting seventh after seven games, but they're no mugs and offer reliability to at least put up a fight even if they do end up losing comfortably. One man central to that is former Manchester United defender Rafael da Silva.
Used at both full-back and in central midfield by the Turkish champions, he's made four tackles in each of their Champions League defeats. In all competitions he's on a run of three consecutive four-tackle performances.
Sky Bet are offering 11/10 for Rafael to make 3+ tackles and that's where I'm heading. Should he start in his more familiar role of right-back then the Brazilian will have plenty to do given the bias of United's attacks, with several of their attacking players - Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford and Edinson Cavani among them - having a tendency to drift into the left channel.
Should he play in central midfield then there'll be no reason for him to be anything other than heavily involved in what's likely to be another all-hands-to-the-pump defensive performance from Basaksehir.
Score prediction: Basaksehir 0-2 Man United (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Rafael to make 3+ tackles in Basaksehir v Man Utd at 11/10
Opta facts
- This will be the first meeting between İstanbul Başakşehir and Manchester United in any European competition.
- Istanbul Başakşehir’s only previous experience against English opponents in the qualifying phase of the 2018/19 UEFA Europa League, losing 1-0 on aggregate to Sean Dyche’s Burnley.
- Manchester United have lost each of their last two away games against Turkish opponents in European competition – 0-1 v Galatasaray in November 2012 and 1-2 v Fenerbahçe in November 2016.
- Istanbul Başakşehir have lost their opening two UEFA Champions League matches without scoring – only one Turkish side has lost their first three games in the competition, with Bursaspor doing so in 2010/11.
- Manchester United are looking to win their first three matches in a UEFA Champions League group stage for a ninth time – no team has ever failed to qualify after winning their first three games in a group stage.
Chelsea v Rennes
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 4/11 | Draw 19/5 | Away 7/1
Full credit to Frank Lampard, it may have taken him more than a year but it finally looks as though the Chelsea boss has solved his team's defensive woes. The first goalless draw of his reign at home to Sevilla at fortnight ago seems to have triggered whatever the antonym for the opening of the floodgates is - maybe just the closing of them?
Another 0-0, this time at Manchester United in the Premier League, was followed by successive emphatic wins at Krasdonar (4-0) and Burnley (3-0). Understandably then, they head into their third Champions League Group E game as heavy favourites to beat Rennes at Stamford Bridge.
The French side have experienced two very different matches so far, but they shared one similarity: few goals. It was they who dominated possession and were frustrated by Krasnodar in a 1-1 draw, holding the lead they earned from the penalty spot for only three second-half minutes.
Away at Sevilla it was Rennes' turn to frustrate as they were lucky to lose only 1-0 - the Europa League champions had 23 attempts on goal (10 on target) and restricted their Ligue One opponents to just two.
Both Chelsea to win/under 3.5 goals and Chelsea to win/over 2.5 goals are hovering around the evens mark, which gives you an indication of the anticipated outcome. Take a glance through Rennes' recent domestic results and you'll see it's a rarity for there not to be two or three goals in their fixtures.
Where I think there's value to be found is in backing Lampard's men to continue their recent good form, taking them in the -1 handicap. It has a best price of 7/5 with Sport Nation but is available at evens across the board.
They've shown in their last two outings that with a plethora of creative, attacking talent at their disposal they can carve through an opponent whose sole intention is to put everyone behind the ball for 90 minutes.
Rennes somehow got out of Seville with a 1-0 defeat last week, but Chelsea should be backed to be more clinical and beat them by at least two goals.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Rennes (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Chelsea (-1 handicap) to beat Rennes at 7/5
Opta facts
- Chelsea and Rennes have never previously faced in any competition.
- Chelsea have lost just one of their nine home UEFA Champions League games against French sides (W5 D3), a 2-1 defeat against Paris SG in March 2016.
- Rennes have lost their two away European games in England – in August 2001, they were beaten 1-0 by Aston Villa in the Intertoto Cup and in March 2019 they lost 3-0 to Arsenal in the UEFA Europa League.
- Chelsea have only suffered one defeat in their previous 15 home games in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League (0-1 v Valencia last season), winning nine and drawing the other five games in this run.
- Rennes are on a five-game losing streak away from home in major European competitions (excl. qualifiers), with four of the defeats in this run coming since the start of last season).
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (02/11/20)
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