Paul Higham previews Wednesday's action in the Champions League, including Man City's trip to Real Madrid.
Recommended bets
2pts Juventus to beat Lyon at evens
1pt Man City to beat Real Madrid at 7/5
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Real Madrid v Manchester City
- 2000 GMT kick-off on BT Sport 2
What a game we have in Madrid on Wednesday as Pep Guardiola returns to face his old foes knowing this could well be his last chance to win the Champions League with Man City.
Ban or no ban, beating Real Madrid on the way to lifting this trophy again would make it all the sweeter, and they’ve got a much better chance if Raheem Sterling is fit as expected.
Sterling voiced his admiration for Los Blancos in a recent interview and, although he’s one of England’s best players, he’s still not had that big performance on the European stage to showcase his talents – this could be just that occasion.
🗣️ Who better to preview Man City's task at Real Madrid than Spanish football expert @GuillemBalague!
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) February 26, 2020
🌟 The men to watch
📊 The Zidane tactics
🚑 How big is Eden Hazard blow?
📺 The @LaLigaTV man gives us his expert view 👇#RealMadridManCity #ChampionsLeague pic.twitter.com/daHCFycDao
The reason being Real have stuttered of late as Barcelona have overtaken them at the top of the table following a damaging draw with Celta Vigo and even more disappointing defeat at Levante.
That’s not great form to take into a game with a team containing the excellent Kevin De Bruyne, who could enjoy himself if Real’s defending does not improve from recent outings.
It’s an intriguing contrast between the team in form but short of European success, and the big-time players from Madrid, who are not at their best but are experts at raising their games for these big occasions – and have the 13 European Cups to show for it.
There should be plenty of action on both sides – Real Madrid have averaged 25 shots per Champions League home game this season, but if Aymeric Laporte plays then that should restrict their success.
No Eden Hazard is a big blow for the hosts and City just look the better side that are in better form right now, so although Real have a tremendous home record in this competition and know exactly how to handle these big games, this looks well set up for a landmark European win for Guardiola’s side.
Prediction: Real Madrid 1-2 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Man City to beat Real Madrid at 7/5
Opta stats
- Manchester City have never won against Real Madrid – they have faced each other four times, each occasion in the Champions League, with City losing their two away games at Santiago Bernabeu and drawing the other two at the Etihad.
- Real Madrid have prevailed in their last four Champions League knockout ties against English opposition: 5-0 on aggregate v Tottenham (2010/11 quarter-finals), 3-2 v Manchester Utd (2012/13 round of 16), 1-0 v Manchester City (2015/16 semi-finals), 3-1 v Liverpool (2017/18 final).
- Real Madrid have reached the knockout stages of the Champions League for the 23rd consecutive season, the longest run in the history of the tournament and a streak that began in 1997/98.
- Real Madrid have scored in each of their last 22 home games in the knockout stages of the Champions League; the last team to stop them from scoring were Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona in the 2010/11 semi-finals (0-2). However, Real have failed to win their last three knockout matches at Santiago Bernabeu (D1 L2); they have never gone four matches in a row without a victory.
- Manchester City are in the knockout stages of the Champions League for the seventh straight season, reaching at least the quarter-finals in three of the last four campaigns.
- Manchester City have been knocked out in each of their three previous Champions league two-legged ties against Spanish clubs: 1-4 on aggregate v Barcelona (2013/14 round of 16), 1-3 v Barcelona (2014/15 round of 16), 0-1 v Real Madrid (2015/16 semis).
- If he plays, it will be Eden Hazard’s 50th Champions League game. Penalties excluded, the Real Madrid forward has scored only four goals in his previous 49 appearances. His two goals (in 11 appearances) in the UCL knockout stages came from the penalty spot.
- Manchester City forward Raheem Sterling has scored 10 goals in his last 13 Champions League appearances, that’s one more goal than in his previous 34 matches in the competition (9). Only Lionel Messi (6) and Cristiano Ronaldo (5) scored more times than Sterling in last season’s knockout stages (4).
- Zinedine Zidane has won all 12 Champions League ties he’s been involved in as Real Madrid manager (9 two-legged ties and 3 finals). He currently holds three Champions League trophies as manager, a joint-record alongside Bob Paisley and Carlo Ancelotti.
- Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola is facing Real Madrid in a Champions League knockout tie for the third time, with a third different club – he won 3-1 on aggregate with Barcelona in the 2010/11 semi-finals and he lost 5-0 on aggregate with Bayern Munich in the 2013/14 semi-finals.
Lyon v Juventus
- 2000 GMT kick-off on BT Sport 3
Not much hope is given for the French hosts here, who are 3/1 just to win the match in their own backyard, but you can see why when Cristiano Ronaldo arrives on the back of scoring in his last eight away games.
Just having the living legend in the Juventus side already puts teams like Lyon on the back foot even in front of their home fans – and despite Juve not having it all their own way in Serie A this season they’re still top and still waltzed through their Champions League group.
Ronaldo has bagged in 11 straight Serie A contests, and while Lyon will press them high and hard, PSG managed to see them off comfortably enough recently and Juve should head back to Turin with a lead of some sort.
What type of lead will likely depend on how many risks Maurizio Sarri wants to take going forward, as he could well just keep things reasonably settled and lean on Ronaldo and Paulo Dybala.
This could be a comfortable win in the end for Juventus if they go about it the right way, but there’s enough about Lyon to suggest they can keep it close. Instead of digging around for something fancy though, with even money on an away win it’s worth keeping it simple again.
Prediction: Lyon 1-2 Juventus (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Juventus to beat Lyon at evens
Opta stats
- Lyon are winless against Juventus in European competition (D1 L3), losing both of their home games against the Italian side by the same 0-1 scoreline (2013/14 Europa League quarter-finals and in the 2016/17 Champions League group stages).
- Lyon have been eliminated by Italian opposition in the Champions League knockout stages on both previous occasions they have met: 1-3 on aggregate v AC Milan in 2005/06 (quarter-finals) and 0-2 v Roma in 2006/07 (round of 16). Meanwhile, Juventus have always progressed to the next round when facing French clubs in the knockout stages of the competition (4/4).
- Lyon have reached the knockout stages of the Champions League more times than any other French club (11). However, it’s been 10 years since they progressed past the round of 16 (2009/10). Indeed, they have scored only three goals in their last nine knockout games in the competition (W1 D2 L6).
- Juventus are in the Champions League knockout stages for the sixth straight season, their longest ever run. In the last five campaigns, they’ve made it past the round of 16 on four occasions, only failing to do so in 2015/16 when they were eliminated by Bayern Munich (4-6 agg.).
- Seven of Lyon’s last eight Champions League home games have ended in a draw (W1), four of them with a 2-2 scoreline. Juventus were the last side to beat them on home soil in the competition, it was in October 2016 (0-1).
- Juventus have lost only one of their last seven Champions League away games in the knockout phase (W4 D2), a 2-0 defeat against Atlético Madrid last season in the last 16.
- Lyon won two of their six group games in this season’s Champions League (D2 L2), the lowest tally alongside Atalanta among the remaining 16 teams.
- Lyon posted an Expected Goals total of 7.8 in this season’s Champions League group phase (9 goals scored), the lowest total amongst the teams left in the competition. o Memphis Depay (six goals, four assists) has been directly involved in 45% of Lyon’s Champions League goals since the start of last season (10/22) – however the French side will be without the Dutch forward for this match due to injury.
- Among the seven players with 50+ goals in the Champions League, Juventus striker Cristiano Ronaldo is also the only one to have scored more goals in the knockout stages (65) than in the group phase (63). Indeed, he has also registered more assists in the competition versus Lyon (4) than any other side.
Odds correct as of 2300 GMT on 25/02/20
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