Tom Carnduff previews Wednesday's action in the Champions League, including Tottenham's round of 16 fixture with RB Leipzig.
2pts Serge Aurier to be shown a card in Tottenham v RB Leipzig at 3/1
2pts Duvan Zapata to have 2+ shots on target in Atalanta v Valencia at 11/8
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There's a strong case to be made for this turning out to be the highest-scoring tie of the entire round.
Tottenham's defensive woes continued at Aston Villa on Sunday but Son Heung-Min's strike with virtually the last kick of the game ensured that they would leave the West Midlands as 3-2 winners.
The round of 16 draw puts them against a side who have a real possibility of dethroning Bayern Munich in Germany. The controversial club are one of three in the chasing pack looking to end the trophy's long stay in Bavaria - although Julian Nagelsmann's men are in the best position as they sit just a point behind.
Leipzig hit a rough patch of form coming out of the winter break with defeats to Eintracht Frankfurt in the league and cup, while they secured draws with Borussia Monchengladbach and Bayern.
That game against the current champions was a real cliched tale of two halves. The first was a question of how Leipzig weren't behind, the second left you wondering how they weren't ahead.
An interesting factor of this Leipzig team is how they have changed their set-up when it comes to the big games. Nagelsmann has made them into a team that likes to have possession and dominate proceedings against the lesser teams.
However, Leipzig are happy to allow better opposition to see more of the ball. Their recent trip to the Allianz saw them have just 30% possession, while they had 44% at Dortmund and 35% at Leverkusen.
The pattern also remains for the reverse fixtures. It's part of the tactical plan from the Leipzig coach and we're likely to see similar in North London on Wednesday night. Tottenham should have a lot more of the possession with the visitors aiming to hit them on the counter.
The German side will be aware of the lack of pace in this Tottenham back line and look to expose that with speed. The problem is that, while they can break forward themselves effectively, they are vulnerable to the counter attack which is often where they end up conceding.
One thing that Tottenham do possess is players with good acceleration and speed in their attacking four. Lucas Moura and recent addition Steven Bergwijn will be problematic for Leipzig as they look to beat the press and get forward.
It'll be a characteristic of both teams though if Leipzig follow the pattern of allowing the opposition to have more of the ball. A high-scoring contest can therefore be expected, which always provides value across the markets.
You have to go up to 50+ booking points to get an odds-against price but instead it could be worth gambling on the 3/1 available on Serge Aurier to be shown a card.
The right-back looked more than vulnerable last time out in a performance that wasn't a one-off. That area of the pitch should be a target area for Tottenham in the next transfer window, even with the recent emergence of Japhet Tanganga.
It's not just that recent form that makes Aurier a good bet but also the fact that Leipzig will also look to exploit Tottenham's weak right side through star striker Timo Werner.
The distribution from the centre-backs allows them to play balls over the top for the forward line to chase on to. They are also likely to put Werner in a role on the left side of attack to accommodate this and, in a battle between the two players, the Leipzig man is going to be the winner.
Even with the news of Son's injury, sitting on the fence and backing the draw is the best outright outcome here. Given how open the game is though, goals should be expected and the 8/13 on over 2.5 looks a fair price.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-2 RB Leipzig (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Serge Aurier to be shown a card at 3/1
Both sides would have been extremely satisfied when this tie came out from the draw as they manage to avoid the big-hitters.
That said, the hosts will fancy their chances of progression given Valencia's struggles in LaLiga this season. They sit seventh in Spain's top-flight while Atalanta hold a top-four spot in Serie A.
The Italian side did well to progress in what appeared an open group below Manchester City, who were the expected winners. They lost their first three but two wins from their last two resulted in them beating Shakhtar to second place.
They'll take confidence from that and have a great chance of holding a good lead for the second leg with home advantage here. Atalanta have the fifth-best home record in Serie A this season, while Valencia are 11th in the LaLiga away standings.
They've only managed three wins in their 11 domestic games on the road. Their last two have been defeats by three goals or more and, while they are strong at home, the tie may well be over before it gets to the reverse fixture.
Atalanta were involved in our pre-season predictions with Duvan Zapata tipped as top goalscorer. The form of Erling Haaland would have denied him, but a muscle tear injury which kept him out of action for over two months didn't help either.
The upturn in form for his side would have undoubtedly have seen him involved in the goals in the latter group stage matches. Especially when you consider the fact that he had six goals in seven Serie A fixtures prior to the injury.
He is returning to form though after making a comeback in early January and has two goals in his last four outings.
His threat in the box is not only highlighted in the goals column. Over his last five league games, the Colombian forward has posted a huge total of 18 shots - that includes four on target in their surprise home defeat to SPAL a month ago.
It's worth playing on recent averages and backing more shots in a contest that they should win. Two or more shots on target for the striker is available at a best price of 11/8, although the value remains at any price above even money.
Score prediction: Atalanta 3-1 Valencia (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Duvan Zapata to have 2+ shots on target at 11/8
Odds correct as of 1200 GMT (18/02/20)
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