The Champions League continues on Wednesday night with both Manchester clubs in action. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Luke Shaw to be shown a card in Juventus v Manchester United at 7/2
2pts Aymeric Laporte to have 1+ shots on target in Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk at 9/4
1pt Joelinton to score two or more goals in Lyon v Hoffenheim at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Juventus v Manchester United
Group H, Allianz Stadium, 2000 GMT, BT Sport 2
Defeat here could see Manchester United drop into third in Group H, and Juventus should pick up another three points in front of their home crowd.
The Serie A giants have won all three games so far without conceding, and their outstanding home record has helped them move six points clear at the top of the league domestically.
Juve are unbeaten in their last ten home games with nine of those ending in victory and the task which faces United here is a daunting one, even if some fans will recall what they've been capable of in Turin previously. Juve were worthy 1-0 winners in the reverse fixture.
Jose Mourinho's men left it late as Marcus Rashford scored in the final moments to wrap up a 2-1 win over Bournemouth last time out, although their ten points from a possible 18 on the road puts them sixth in the away standings.
As ever, questions continue to be asked about Mourinho's management as they still sit in seventh in the table, with just one win from three in the Champions League this season.
United will be without Antonio Valencia, Marouane Fellaini and Diogo Dalot as they remain sidelined, while questions will surround Romelu Lukaku after he missed that victory on the south coast with an injury picked up in training.
Paulo Dybala has been in fantastic form in Europe with four goals in two appearances, including the only one of the game at Old Trafford. He's yet to produce that sort of return in the league with just two in ten but looks a fair price to score here.
Cards could be on the agenda given Ovidiu Alin Hategan's disciplinary record in Europe. The Romanian referee has in effect produced 95 booking points in the two Champions League group games, alongside seven yellows in his last two domestically.
Luke Shaw has played all but one game in the Premier League and Champions League this season, featuring for the full 90 minutes in all of them. He also has the second-highest foul count out of any United player in the Premier League, while also committing the most fouls in their European squad.
At odds of 7/2 there is value in backing him to be shown a card in Italy and that's the best bet in a game the hosts should win.
Best bet: Luke Shaw to be shown a card at 7/2
Opta facts
- This is the 14th European meeting between Juventus and Manchester United – Juventus have won six, Man Utd have won five and they’ve drawn two of the previous 13.
- Manchester United have won their last two away Champions League matches against Juventus, scoring three goals in each win – 3-2 in April 1999 and 3-0 in February 2003.
- No side has won more away Champions League matches at Juventus than Manchester United (2, same as Bayern Munich).
- Since losing 0-3 to Manchester United in the second group stage in February 2003, Juventus have lost just one of their 35 home Champions League matches in the group stages (W24 D10).
- Manchester United have failed to score in their last two Champions League games – they haven’t failed to score in three consecutively since November 2005.
- Juventus striker Cristiano Ronaldo is goalless in each of his last five Champions League games – since scoring a 90th minute penalty against Juventus in April for Real Madrid, he has played 389 minutes and attempted 15 shots without success.
- Manchester United haven’t lost home and away against an opponent in a Champions League group stage since 2001-02, when they lost both games against Deportivo de La Coruña in the first group stage; the only other occasion this has happened was in 1996-97, when they did so against Juventus.
- Juventus manager Massimiliano Allegri has lost just one of his last 26 home Champions League matches as a manager (W16 D9), a 0-3 defeat in last season’s quarter-final against Real Madrid.
- Manchester United managed just six shots in their home Champions League match against Juventus on MD3 – they last had fewer than that in a single Champions League match in October 2013 against Shakhtar Donetsk under David Moyes (4 shots).
- Manchester United boss Jose Mourinho last managed an away match at Juventus in December 2009, when he was Inter Milan manager – he lost 1-2 in a Serie A encounter.
Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk
Group F, Etihad Stadium, 2000 GMT, BT Sport 3
Manchester City are expected to wrap up another comfortable victory as they welcome Shakhtar to the Etihad.
Pep Guardiola's men hammered Southampton 6-1 at the weekend, the fourth time this season that they have scored at least five goals in a game.
The home side are expected to win easily again here despite having stuttered at the Etihad under the bright lights of the Champions League.
Plenty of chances should be forthcoming in this one and that's why someone like Aymeric Laporte represents a good price at 9/4 to have at least one shot on target.
The centre-back has two goals to his tally already, including one in the reverse as City won 3-0 in the Ukraine.
City have had 20 corners in three group games so far and that figure should be considerably higher in a game where they will be expected to be on the front foot.
Laporte isn't afraid to go for goal when the opportunity presents itself. His return of nine efforts in the Premier League is the highest of any City defender, with three in the Champions League having the same impact.
Given City's free-scoring football under Guardiola, over 3.5 goals for his side at 6/4 looks a good shorter-priced bet with Guardiola's side expected to win well, although there's a small risk that they ease up with United to come on Sunday.
Yaroslav Rakitsky and Taras Stepanenko are two players who could catch the referee's attention in this one. The duo have led the way when it comes to fouls this season and will be under pressure throughout the 90 minutes.
Rakitsky has six yellow cards on his tally in all competitions this season, while Stepanenko conceded a foul in the 3-0 loss to City last time out has been shown four yellows in the Ukranian Premier Liga.
Backing both to be booked gives a price of 9/2, which is more appealing than the even money and 13/8 on offer to back each individually.
Best bet: Aymeric Laporte to have 1+ shots on target at 9/4
Best bet: Yaroslav Rakitsky and Taras Stepanenko both to be carded at 9/2
Opta facts
- Manchester City have won two of their three Champions League encounters with Shakhtar Donetsk, losing the other in December 2017.
- Shakhtar Donetsk have never won an away European match in England in seven attempts (W0 D1 L6) – in their most game there, they lost 0-2 to Man City.
- Manchester City have lost their last three home Champions League games, all in 2018 and all by the same scoreline – 1-2 against Basel, Liverpool and Lyon.
- Shakhtar have lost seven of their last nine away Champions League matches (W1 D1), though they avoided defeat in their last away game at Lyon, drawing 2-2.
- Should Man City lose against Shakhtar, they will be the first English side in the history of the European Cup/Champions League to lose four consecutive home matches – the only other side to lose three in a row are Spurs in November 2016.
- Ukrainian sides have never won in England in 28 attempts in European competition (W0 D6 L22) – the last team to avoid defeat were Dynamo Kiev in March 2016 at the Etihad against Manchester City, a 0-0 draw.
- Since his Champions League debut for Man City in September 2011, only Sergio Aguero (33) has been involved in more goals for the Citizens than David Silva (15, 7 goals, 8 assists).
- Shakhtar Donetsk faced 24 shots in their 0-3 defeat to Man City on MD3, the most they’d faced in a Champions League game since September 2015 against Real Madrid (26).
- Kevin De Bruyne has assisted six goals in his last 12 Champions League appearances for Manchester City, including one against Shakhtar on MD3 – all assists have been for different players (David Silva, John Stones, Gabriel Jesus, Raheem Sterling, Ilkay Gundogan and Aymeric Laporte).
- 21 of Shakhtar’s last 22 away Champions League goals have been scored by Brazilian players; the last Brazilian to score at the Etihad against Man City in the competition was Roberto Firmino for Liverpool in April 2018.
Lyon v Hoffenheim
Group F, Groupama Stadium, 2000 GMT, BT Sport Extra 4
Two sides who will be aiming to qualify alongside Manchester City meet in a crucial clash in France.
Victory for Lyon will could move them six points clear in second, whereas Hoffenheim could go level on points with Tuesday's opponents if they wrap up the win.
Hoffenheim's poor start to the season may have cost them in their earlier Champions League games, but three consecutive wins have fired them up to seventh in the Bundesliga standings.
We can expect goals in this one given the track record of these two sides in recent weeks.
Thirteen of Hoffenheim's 15 competitive games this season have produced over 2.5 goals, with their four of their last five having four or more. Their three Champions League games have resulted in 13 goals with the 3-3 draw with Lyon in their last encounter telling us plenty.
Over 3.5 goals is odds-on here, so there is value in backing individual goalscorers for either side.
Joelinton has been a star for the German outfit in all competitions this season and scored a brace in Hoffenheim's successful dress rehearsal for this crucial clash as they hammered Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 on Saturday.
The Brazilian forward has eight goals and five assists in 15 appearances and he's backed to continue that run with two or more goals here at around the 12/1 mark.
He has scored at least a brace on two separate occasions this season and managed to net against Lyon despite coming off the bench. He didn't start their last Champions League game, but given the importance of this one, he should be on the pitch from the off on Wednesday night.
Opta facts
- Lyon and Hoffenheim’s only previous European meeting was their 3-3 draw on MD3, the highest scoring Champions League draw since November 2017 (Sevilla 3-3 Liverpool).
- Hoffenheim are winless in all five of their away European matches (including qualifiers), drawing two and losing three.
- Lyon are unbeaten in six Champions League games (W2 D4), their best run since a run of seven between September 2006 and February 2007.
- Hoffenheim have both scored and conceded in all 10 of their European matches (including qualifiers), scoring 17 goals and conceding 23 with their games seeing an average of four goals per game.
- The average age of Lyon’s starting line-up against Hoffenheim was just 23 years and 308 days, their youngest for a Champions League match since December 2011 against Dinamo Zagreb (23y 304d).
- Lyon have won just one of their last seven Champions League games against German opponents (D2 L4).
- Lyon faced nine shots on target in their 3-3 draw against Hoffeheim on MD3, the most they’ve faced in a Champions League game since November 2011 (11 against Real Madrid).
- For Lyon, French players are responsible for 49% of the minutes played in the Champions League this season; for Hoffenheim, German players are responsible for just 37% of the minutes played.
- 21 of Lyon’s last 23 Champions League goals have been scored in open play, including all seven this season.
- Hoffenheim striker Andrej Kramaric has scored twice (both against Lyon) and assisted once in his two Champions League starts this season.
Odds correct at 1520 GMT (06/11/18)
