After two weekends of profit, Tom Carnduff is hoping for more of the same in midweek as he looks at Wednesday's action.
Recommended bets
1pt Over 2.5 second-half goals in RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin at 2/1
1pt Erik Thommy to score anytime in Fortuna Dusseldorf v Schalke at 10/3
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RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin
Having watched Hertha's dominant second-half performance against Berlin rivals Union on Friday night, I was intrigued to see what Leipzig could produce on Sunday and, if they failed to inspire, I was more than prepared to take the big prices available on the away side getting something here.
After 90 minutes where I struggled to take my eyes off the TV as Leipzig demolished Mainz 5-0, any confidence I had in the possibility of Hertha picking up at least a point has faded significantly.
Questions surrounded Leipzig following their lacklustre performance in a 1-1 draw with Freiburg on the first week back but the showing against Mainz provided the perfect response. Timo Werner's hat-trick grabbed the headlines but it was a dominant team performance where everyone played their role.
The hosts will be hoping that Dortmund can keep the title race alive by beating Bayern Munich on Tuesday night. If that happens, Leipzig would move to within four points of first place with victory here. The 1/3 price across the board and the Asian Handicap having them at -1.5 currently shows they are expected to do just that - and by a convincing margin.
But while Leipzig to give away a goal on the handicap should and surely will be on many a midweek accumulator, there's better value to be found in backing goals - specifically in the second half.
As a general rule and as 'which half most goals' markets reflect, teams do score more goals in the second-half of games than the first. Leipzig sit third for goals scored in the Bundesliga this season and they hold the same spot in the second-half charts.
But for Hertha, they have particularly relied on the second-half to be their main period of goal-scoring. Eleven of their goals this season have come in the first 45 minutes, while a huge 27 have been scored in the second.
In fact all seven of their goals since the break, and under Bruno Labbadia's guidance, have been scored in the second-half. The same can be said for three of Leipzig's six goals over the same period.
Leipzig may have hit the ground running with three first-half goals in their convincing win over Mainz but Hertha's presence in this game suggests that the second-half will see the net struck more times than the first.
The 4/7 best price on Werner netting anytime reflects his fine form across the Bundesliga season. There's little on offer that's worth backing related to the Leipzig star but I would continue to put faith in Yussuf Poulsen scoring at odds-against value. He's netted two in two since the break.
There's little hesitation in backing a home victory following their weekend performance; the 11/8 on Leipzig to win and over 3.5 goals would be the selection for the Wednesday accumulator.
My real hope is that we go into this game with the title race still alive. Leipzig's presence in Germany continues to divide opinion but it must be acknowledged the sheer entertainment they provide with their intent on attack and the talent at their disposal.
But the best bet in this contest can be found in the second-half markets and backing that trend of goals to continue.
Score prediction: RB Leipzig 3-1 Hertha Berlin (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Over 2.5 second-half goals at 2/1
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Schalke
What more can be said about Schalke's current form? Their torrid second-half of the season continued with a convincing 3-0 home defeat to struggling Augsburg at the weekend.
David Wagner's men are falling down the Bundesliga standings and, despite being just two points off Wolfsburg in sixth, you wouldn't back them to finish in the European spots.
That defeat to Augsburg reflected the problems they are currently having. 67% possession equated to two shots on target. The lack of confidence was evident throughout the ranks as they slumped to yet another poor result.
Fortuna Dusseldorf experienced a more than disappointing result themselves. 2-0 and cruising to victory in the 87th minute at Koln, they conceded two late goals and ended up settling for a point. Just how costly those two points could be in the battle to avoid the drop remains to be seen.
But even with their current difficult position in the standings, they look good value to secure victory against this Schalke side. They simply do not look like a team fit for the Bundesliga on current showings.
Schalke won't go down given the huge points gap between themselves and the bottom three but what looked like a positive season is going to end up as a negative one. Their battle for the top-four is likely to end in them finishing in the bottom-half.
By all means it is worth taking the 8/5 price on a home win, but the better value comes from the goalscorer market and the 10/3 general price for Erik Thommy finding the net anytime.
The wide man grabbed his sixth goal of the season in that draw with Koln last time out. Performances are improving and it's partly the reason why four of those strikes have come this side of the winter break.
His threat in front of goal is emphasised in the 13 shots he has posted across Dusseldorf's last four contests. Five of those, of which two were on target, came at the weekend. Thommy is a player in-form and there's every chance he can continue that against a poor Schalke side.
Schalke. Not very good at football. #Bundesliga pic.twitter.com/DCSvicHE4F
— Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22) May 24, 2020
The Asian Handicap having both sides sitting on 0 currently demonstrates how the money expects this to be a contest that could go either way. Based on what we've witnessed in recent weeks, a home victory seems the likeliest of the three outcomes.
Score prediction: Fortuna Dusseldorf 1-0 Schalke (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Erik Thommy to score anytime at 10/3
Odds correct at 1600 BST (25/05/20)
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