The Champions League action continues in matchday five on Wednesday and George Pitts has three best bets to consider backing.
Recommended bets
1pt BTTS in the second half of PSG v Liverpool at 6/4
1pt Tottenham to have 7+ shots on target at evens
2pts Barcelona to score in both halves v PSV at 10/11
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool
Parc des Princes, 2000 KO at BT Sport 2
A match Jurgen Klopp's side really want to be winning in order to book their place in the knockout stages with a game to spare.
They secured a 3-2 victory in the reverse, Roberto Firmino netting the winner in injury time to cap off a fine, five-goal thriller at Anfield.
It was PSG's only defeat of the season, their only competitive loss under Thomas Tuchel, and the preference in terms of betting on this clash is to avoid backing the result. The hosts are understandably favourites and the head says draw, but this is so tough to call on the night.
One significant glimmer of hope for Reds fans is that Neymar and Kylian Mbappe are uncertainties to feature due to injury, but with or without them the Merseysiders still face a tough task in the French capital.
With goals once again expected, the temptation is to go with both teams to score in the second half, available at a general price of 6/4. The Ligue 1 champions have scored 11 times in four group stage games, only bettered by Man City's 14 (before matchday five), while Liverpool have seven and we can expect both sides to go for it after a slightly tense opening 45.
Other eye-catching prices include Liverpool to take more corners at 17/11 - they were 13-1 ahead at Anfield - and over 12.5 total match corners at 13/5 looks good value, but the preference here is second-half goals.
Best bet: BTTS in the second half at 6/4
Group C permutations
- Liverpool will qualify if they beat Paris St Germain in Paris. If they draw, the Merseyside team would need to equal or better PSG's result in the final game to secure a spot in the last 16.
- If they lose in Paris, Liverpool can still go through if they beat Napoli by more than two goals in the final group stage fixture.
Tottenham v Inter Milan
Wembley, 2000 KO on BT Sport 3
Qualification is a tough ask for Spurs and, again, the preference is to avoid the match market, despite the visitors being as great as 4/1 to win.
With an air of desperation for the north Londoners, it is expected that they will try their luck plenty of times, and the even money for them to have 7+ shots on target is particularly appealing.
Mauricio Pochettino's side have averaged around 19 shots per game in their four Champions League outings this season, with around eight on target each time.
Harry Kane and Dele Alli are two players not afraid of trying their luck, averaging four-and-half and five per game respectively, and could contribute significantly to Spurs' total tally with little to lose in their European campaign.
With that in mind, should it be close at half-time, the hosts could well up the ante, opening up the game and making it a spectacle, so backing the second period as the highest scoring half at just over evens is also worth considering.
Both sides average around three yellow cards a game so look at the cards market - 60+ booking points at 9/4 is worth considering given the importance of the clash.
The reverse fixtures saw the hosts triumph 2-1, with all three goals coming in an entertaining second half at the San Siro, and it has all the ingredients to be another exciting watch this time around with plenty of shots on goal for the hosts.
Group B permutations
- Tottenham need to beat Inter Milan at Wembley in the next match to retain a chance of qualification.
- If they do so, the London side would need to better Inter Milan's result against PSV Eindhoven when they take on Barcelona at Camp Nou in their final group game.
PSV Eindhoven v Barcelona
Philips Stadion, 2000 KO on BT Sport ESPN
Barca qualified for the knockout stages for the 15th straight season in matchday four, and looking for value in any of the Catalans' matches can be difficult when facing a lesser team.
Ernesto Valverde's side, second in La Liga behind Sevilla, have scored in both halves in three of their four Champions League games this season and just under even money looks like a good price to nearly double your money.
Going a little above even money, 32+ total shots in the match at 6/4 is tempting considering Barca average 20 shots per game and PSV attempt around 12 shots per game in the Champions League - and you would expect the visitors to pepper the home goal with plenty of shots.
In the bookings market, 30+ PSV booking points at 5/4 is eye catching considering their opposition, who draw in around 15 fouls per game. Eindhoven's defensive midfielders Pablo Rosario and Jorrit Hendrix have a tendency to foul in the Champions League this season and, given their position, could be ones to watch in the cards market.
We are keeping it simple with this one though, backing the visitors to find the back of the net in each half.
Best bet: Barcelona to score in both halves at 10/11
Best of the rest
Liverpool's group rivals Napoli host Red Star Belgrade and the home side are, understandably, strongly fancied. In terms of backing them outright, Napoli with a -2 handicap does not take you much above the even-money mark at 7/5 while top scorer Lorenzo Insigne is odds-on in the score-and-win double. Sticking with the same market, backing Dries Mertens at evens could be a better option, given he has nearly four shots per game and currently has one to his name in the competition this term.
Atletico Madrid against Monaco presents little value in the result markets, with the hosts strongly fancied to come out on top against Thierry Henry's struggling side. Antoine Griezmann (Atletico) and Radamel Falcao (Monaco) both to have 1+ shots on target at evens is a very generous price considering the duo should be leading the line for their teams, with both averaging two or more shots per game in Europe this term.
Porto v Schalke in Group D could be the draw banker of the night (famous last words!), with both sides closing in on qualification. Porto need a point from their final two games, while German side Schalke are second and four ahead of Galatasaray, who are playing catch up. The spoils being shared here is available at a best price of 13/5, with this fixture producing under 2.5 total goals in the last four meetings. Porto have won their last three in the competition and Schalke are undefeated in the last five - pointing towards an evenly contested clash in Portugal.
Click the image below to see the latest Champions League permutations...
Odds correct at 1630 GMT on 27/11/18
