Free Premier League betting tips: Wednesday 16th December 6pm kick-offs including Leicester v Everton

Football betting tips: Premier League

1pt Southampton to beat Arsenal at 12/5

0.5pts Rodrigo Moreno to score from outside the area in Leeds v Newcastle at 22/1

1pt Jamie Vardy to assist 1+ goals in Leicester v Everton at 5/1

2pts Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1+ tackles in Leicester v Everton at 11/10

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Arsenal v Southampton betting tips

• 18:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
• Match odds: Home 6/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 12/5

Arsenal's collapse over the past few months has been staggering. This is a club who won the FA Cup just four months ago, a serious indicator of the positive progression they had made under Mikel Arteta. Now, as mid-December hits, we are talking about them as a genuine part of the relegation battle.

Will the Gunners actually go down? Probably not, but the fact that we're even mentioning the idea shows their current plight. The latest defeat to Burnley kept them in 15th and there are a number of problems present. Granit Xhaka's latest red card also gives strength to the reports of a split within the camp.

Wednesday sees high-flying Southampton visit The Emirates. Whatever their situation, you just can't picture away teams being a big price when travelling to Arsenal and that makes the Saints seriously good value in this contest. The contrasting form of both sides makes the prices questionable.

Sitting fourth after 12 games is a fantastic position. It shows just how good a job Ralph Hasenhuttl is doing - and a point that may be relevant to Mikel Arteta, what a coach can do if given time to recover from a poor patch; that of course includes Saints' famous [REDACTED] defeat to [REDACTED] in October 2019 (we all know we're not allowed to mention that game).

Without getting too much into the statistics and every small detail, Arsenal are performing as a mid-table Premier League side. Infogol's model has them sitting in ninth and, rather worryingly, remaining fixtures coupled with the Gunners' performance levels leaves them with an expected position of 11th.

Southampton are actually predicted to end in roughly the same area, but obviously that doesn't always tell the full story. The figures could also be impacted by their slow start; this is a side who have lost just one of their past ten since the 5-2 defeat at home to Tottenham.

The Saints' away record is a positive as well with 11 points coming from their six games on the road. Tricky away fixtures at Aston Villa, Chelsea and Wolves have all brought points and against Arsenal, a team who have lost their past four home league games, the visitors can have confidence.

The 12/5 price on an away win is just too big given the recent showings of these two sides. The midweek action also means the games come every few days so it's a terrible time to be in poor form, something that Arsenal should find out about on Wednesday.

Score prediction: Arsenal 0-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)

Best bet: Southampton to beat Arsenal at 12/5

Opta facts

• Arsenal have lost just one of their 21 Wednesday Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium (W14 D6), going down 1-2 against Swansea in March 2016.
• Excluding own goals, 10 of the last 16 Premier League goals scored in fixtures between Arsenal and Southampton have been scored by English players – prior to this, only 10 of the previous 55 goals were scored by Englishmen.
• Arsenal have received six Premier League red cards since Mikel Arteta’s first game in charge in December 2019, double that of any other side in this time.
• Southampton have won 23 points in their opening 12 Premier League games this season (W7 D2 L3) – assuming three points for a win in all seasons, only in 2014/15 (26) have they had more points after 12 matches in a top-flight season.
• Danny Ings has scored three Premier League goals in three appearances against Arsenal for Southampton – no Saints player has ever scored four goals against the Gunners in the competition.

Leeds v Newcastle betting tips

• 18:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
• Match odds: Home 8/11 | Draw 14/5 | Away 18/5

Leeds fell to a disappointing defeat against West Ham last time out, while Newcastle managed to get the better of West Brom on Saturday. This game isn't a must-win for Leeds, but they will certainly be targeting it for victory and a strong showing after their last game.

Marcelo Bielsa's men are odds-on for victory here and, even with a couple of poor results, you'd back them to get the better of this Newcastle side. The Toon are a team that continue to provide confusion, one that never necessarily perform well but one that keep finding a way to pick up points.

They should, in theory, be involved in the relegation battle but that won't happen. There won't be much movement between the current bottom four and, although these two teams may be in the bunch above that battle, they are unlikely to be dragged into it at any point.

Bielsa won't be naming his starting XI again after he did it last week. That isn't because of the result but the fact that it created a talking point. Despite that, we could guess that Rodrigo will retain his place in the starting XI, even if he wasn't at his best last time out.

We had a successful 12/1 anytime goalscorer tip in Angelo Ogbonna on Friday but, despite Leeds' defending at set-pieces being disastrous, there isn't too much out there that is appealing enough to go down the same route here. If we were going to go down the avenue of a defensive scorer, then perhaps Ciaran Clark represents good value at 20/1 (bet365) given his aerial presence. However, Newcastle aren't a big scorer from set-pieces.

Rodrigo's attacking presence is clear in that he has had three shots in each of his Leeds starts this season, while there were also three in second-half substitute appearances against Arsenal and Manchester City. We have spoken previously about his dangerous left foot and there will be multiple occasions this season where he should score from outside the area.

That is aided by his deeper position behind Patrick Bamford so he's picking up the ball outside the box a lot. Rather than take the 21/10 on him scoring anytime, the 22/1 on a goal coming from outside the penalty box is a much more attractive option.

Rodrigo and Raphinha should have some success cutting inside on their left foot with Jamal Lewis in the left-back role for Newcastle. It should also be noted that Steve Bruce's side have conceded the most shots from outside the area in the Premier League this season - 44% of all shots faced have come from a distance of greater than 18 yards. Leeds sit joint-fourth for goals scored from outside of the box this season.

Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Best bet: Rodrigo Moreno to score from outside the area at 22/1

Opta facts

• This is the first Premier League meeting between Leeds and Newcastle since January 2004, when the Magpies won 1-0 at St James’ Park courtesy of Alan Shearer’s goal.
• Newcastle have won just one of their last 22 Premier League games played on a Wednesday (D4 L17), winning 4-1 at Bournemouth in July. Indeed, the Magpies have lost more Premier League games on a Wednesday than any other side in the competition (44).
• Leeds have lost their last two Premier League games despite opening the scoring each time. Only four teams have ever lost three in a row despite scoring first – Blackburn in April 2007, Sunderland in February 2011, Wolves in April 2012 and Leicester in December 2014.
• 57% of Newcastle’s Premier League goals this season have come in the final 15 minutes of games (8/14). The Magpies have scored in this timeframe in all five of their victories so far this season.
• This is Marcelo Bielsa’s 114th match in charge of Leeds United in all competitions – the most he’s managed at a club in his managerial career, overtaking the 113 he managed at Athletic Bilbao between 2011 and 2013.

Leicester v Everton betting tips

• 18:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
• Match odds: Home 23/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/5

These two sides are both coming into this one after good wins at the weekend. Everton upset the odds by getting the better of Chelsea while a dominant first-half performance helped Leicester to a convincing 3-0 victory over Brighton. That sets this up to be a highly entertaining contest.

There is still an element of unpredictability that comes with the Foxes despite their current lofty position. This run of three consecutive victories came after a run of four without a win, three of those ending in defeat. We could probably say the same for Everton; hence this is a game where the result is worth avoiding.

Goals are expected here and the usual 2.5 line is odds-on for the overs to be hit. With that in mind, my first bet surrounds Leicester forward Jamie Vardy, and rather than take the 10/11 on a goal anytime, the comparatively huge 5/1 available on an assist is worth a play considering his showings in recent weeks.

Vardy already has four assists to his name this season, including a brace of helpers in that win against Brighton. It's not necessarily a 'usual' part of his game but the forward, now 33, may be looking to bring more players in to the attack in what is a highly talented Leicester side.

Considering Everton's defence is beaten simply by one-twos around them, Vardy could easily pick up yet another assist here and grab a goal of his own. That would have landed a winning bet on Sunday and also brought you plenty of points if you captained him in fantasy football (quick chance to brag there).

One from the stats bets and that is the 11/10 available on Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have at least one successful tackle here. Across his last four games, the Everton striker has seen five tackles. It isn't something that happens every week, but the games where he is tackling come against the more attack-minded teams.

He has seen at least one tackle in games against Chelsea, Leeds and Liverpool this season and Leicester should be the type of team where he commits another here. Even Fulham, a side who are at the bottom end of the table, have a preference for attack over defence where they can.

At odds-against for just the one successful tackle, it is worth a play it what should be a quite attacking game. I do like Everton this season but, as mentioned above, the result is worth avoiding. Targeting the strikers is where the value can be found, although perhaps not in the usual ways we'd expect.

Score prediction: Leicester 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bet: Jamie Vardy to assist 1+ goals at 5/1

Best bet: Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1+ tackles at 11/10

Opta facts

• Leicester City have won three of their last five home league games against Everton (L2), as many as they had in their previous 16 against the Toffees (W3 D7 L6).
• Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 15 Premier League games against Leicester, doing so in a 2-0 away win in December 2016.
• After 13 of the first 18 Premier League games between Leicester and Everton had ended in a draw, none of the last 10 meetings between the sides in the competition have finished level (five wins each).
• Carlo Ancelotti has won all three of his meetings with Brendan Rodgers in all competitions, winning twice with Real Madrid in 2014/15 versus Liverpool in the Champions League and with Everton versus Leicester in the Premier League in July.
• Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored 19 goals in 32 Premier League games under Carlo Ancelotti, compared with 16 goals in 94 appearances under his previous Everton managers combined.

Odds correct at 1630 GMT (14/12/20)

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