Watford will be looking to continue their recent good form and close the gap to the Sky Bet Championship’s top two against QPR on Monday night. Joe Rindl has the preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
1pt Troy Deeney to score first at 18/5
0.5pt Watford to score a penalty at 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Watford v QPR
- 19:45 GMT on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 3/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 15/4
Watford will be eager for a victory after dropping points in a goalless draw with Millwall last time out. The promotion chasers could make it four consecutives wins at home with a victory.
While QPR will be hoping to kickstart their form after losing to struggling Derby last week. The Rs are the division's inconsistent side, alternating between wins and losses in their past four games.
This will not be a free-scoring fixture. The last time the Hornets scored more than three goals in a game was in their 4-1 win over Preston last November. QPR’s last 11 games have all seen just two goals or less.
Unsurprisingly, the bookies are wise to this. Total goals to be under 2.5 is odds on at 8/11. Even a win to nil bet garners short odds. At home I’d be backing Watford to find the target. The hosts have failed to find the net just twice since Xisco Munoz was appointed head coach.
And QPR, who have netted only six goals from their past 11 games in all competitions may find it difficult to break down the Championship’s second-best defence. But at 7/4 the value on a win to nil bet isn’t there to back anything but loose change.
Instead, I’d look towards the likely goalscorers. I’m surprised to see Watford’s joint top scorer Joao Pedro with odds as long as 4/1 to net first. But with one goal in his last eight it may be one to steer clear of.
For QPR, joint leading marksmen Lyndon Dykes and Ilias Chair are 17/2 and 13/1 in the same market, yet with the hosts stuttering in front of goal, again I remain unconvinced.
When in doubt, back Troy Deeney. The 32-year-old has two goals in his past three fixtures, and at 18/5 as first goalscorer, provides a strong pick.
That’s mainly due to his insane penalty record. Deeney - on spot-kick duty for the Hornets - hasn’t missed a pen this season. And that’s ideal for his personal tally as no Championship side has been awarded more penalties than Watford’s seven this campaign.
What’s more, QPR have conceded 11 spot-kicks, the third worst in the division. Watford are 5/1 to score from the spot in this fixture. I’d say that's where the big profit can be gained in this match.
Score Prediction: Watford 1-0 QPR (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Watford v QPR best bets
1pt Troy Deeney to score first at 18/5
0.5pts Watford to score a penalty at 5/1
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (29/01/21)
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