Already-doomed Watford host a relegation-threatened Everton side who have been in decent form of late. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 39/40 (SBK)
Watford were relegated with a whimper last weekend, losing to Crystal Palace in a game they never really looked like scoring in (xG: CRY 2.26 - 0.46 WAT).
That was their sixth straight defeat, and their motivation for this game is questionable after such a low, but I doubt Roy Hodgson will let his players just roll over here.
After all, the Hornets haven't given their home faithful much to cheer about this term, so their final two games at Vicarage Road should see Watford continue to fight.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
Watford 10/3 | Draw 13/5 | Everton 4/5
I was incredibly sceptical and majorly surprised when Watford hired Hodgson, mainly due to the fact that he is a very negative coach with his tactics and the performances of his Palace team over the past few seasons were appalling based on underlying numbers - they were fortunate to still be in the top flight.
He hasn't improved them - in fact, he has made Watford worse than they were under Claudio Ranieri.
Hodgson has bettered the Hornets defensively, but their attacking process has nose-dived since the club sacked the Italian.
For context, over a 38-game season, Ranieri's Watford would be expected to generate 16.3 more xGF (Expected Goals For) than Hodgson's.
That is where the major issue has come, they just haven't looked like scoring at a time in the season where they desperately needed results.
Everton have won three of five as they head to Vicarage Road, with Frank Lampard's side moving one point and two places clear of the final relegation spot.
Victory at Leicester last time out doubled their season-long win tally away from home, and they will be fancying their chances of going back-to-back on the road here.
Their recent upturn in form has come thanks to an improvement in organisation and stability, with both contributing to stronger defensive displays.
Across their last five - in which they have played Leicester (twice), Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool - the Toffees have allowed 1.34 xGA (Expected Goals Against) per game. That is impressive, and a marked decrease on their season average before that run, which stood at nearly 2.0 xGA per game.
In that same sample, Everton have generated just 1.04 xGF per game, which tells us that chances have been few and far between at either end in their games of late, and I expect this trend to continue as they visit a toothless Watford.
So, it was pleasantly surprising to see UNDER 2.5 GOALS available at a best price of 39/40, with the 10/11 widely available also considered a decent enough price.
Four of Everton's last five have seen fewer than three goals, while 50% of Watford's games under Hodgson have gone under the required line.
In a game where I think Everton are unbackable at odds-on, opposing a high-scoring game seems the logical alternative.
Watford v Everton best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 39/40 (SBK)
Score prediction: Watford 0-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1130 BST (10/05/22)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
