Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
1pt Watford to win and under 3.5 goals at 13/10 (BoyleSports)
0.5pts Watford to win 2-0 at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Watford to win 1-0 at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Watford v Derby
- 19:45 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 5/6 | Draw 23/10 | Away 15/4
In beating Bristol City 6-0 last Saturday, Watford did something they hadn’t done since November 28.
For 15 games, matches involving the Hornets hadn’t seen more than more than 3.5 goals, with Watford failing to score more than two in a match since their 4-1 win over Preston.
Despite being solid promotion chasers all season, Watford are perennial low scorers. Last weekend was a blip.
Xisco Munoz’ side have averaged 1.9 goals in the Championship, conceding an average of 0.7. It’s no surprise that on Tuesday night - in their game following their 6-0 thrashing - they ran out 1-0 winners over Preston.
Their opponents Derby County aren't exactly setting the world alight either. According to Infogol, the last time Wayne Rooney’s side had over two expected goals in a match was nine fixtures ago in their heavy win over struggling Birmingham City.
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— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) February 1, 2021
✅ Watford to score a penalty at 5/1
✅ Troy Deeney to score first at 18/5
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Five wins from their past six has propelled the Rams out of the relegation places into 17th. Although in that stretch managerless Bournemouth were the only side County faced in the top half.
On paper everything points to Watford winning a low-scoring affair. And because of the Hornets' big win last week, the markets have shifted.
For the first time since September, a goals under bet in a Watford game presents value.
WATFORD TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS is 13/10 with BoyleSports. That’s the first time I’ve seen three goals or less go odds against in a Watford fixture for a long time.
If you think there’ll be a home win and even fewer goals it’s time to do a little maths.
A Watford win and under 2.5 goals is best priced at 5/2 with SBK. But instead you’d be better off splitting your bet between WATFORD TO WIN 1-0 and WATFORD TO WIN 2-0. They’re priced at 9/2 and 13/2 with Sky Bet respectively.
Both cover the others’ loss quite comfortably.
Finally, there’s also some good odds lurking in the first goalscorer market. Joao Pedro’s Watford's new main man with an Achilles injury ruling out Troy Deeney.
The Brazillian is now on penalty duty for the hosts, and with Watford being awarded the most spotkicks in the Championship this season, his general 4/1 odds to break the deadlock look overpriced.
Score Prediction: Watford 2-0 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Watford v Derby best bets
- 1pt Watford to win and under 3.5 goals at 13/10 (Boyle Sports)
- 0.5pts Watford to win 2-0 at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts Watford to win 1-0 at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (18/02/21)
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