Wales vs Poland betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
- Jake Osgathorpe is +61.7pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: Euro 2024 qualifiers
2pts Neco Williams 2+ fouls won at evens (Sky Bet)
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: Viaplay Sports 2, BBC iPlayer, S4C
Home 6/4 | Draw 2/1 | Away 21/10
This is it for Wales. Win and they book themselves at the Euros alongside France, Netherlands and Austria. Lose and they will be watching the tournament from home.
The positives are that they looked good in beating Finland last Thursday (xG: WAL 3.07 - 1.45 FIN) and that they get to host this play-off. The bad news is that they face a more dangerous opponent in Poland, a side ranked 30 places higher than the Finns (60th) in the world rankings.
Rob Page will have confidence his nation can advance, but again from a betting stand point I am massively drawn to one player.
What are the best bets?
NECO WILLIAMS scored in the Dragons' 4-1 win last week, and while that was his only shot - meaning he was shy of the 2+ we needed - the FOULS WON bet won comfortably, and I see no need to change tack.
We will again back WILLIAMS TO WIN 2+ FOULS at a price that hasn't shortened much at all.
After being fouled three times in the Finland game, this bet has now won in six of Williams' eight Euro qualifying matches, averaging 2.08 per 90.
Playing as the left-sided wing-back for his country is probably why this bet has landed so regularly, as, given he's a right-footed player, he naturally drifts inside to the crowded centre, though his ability to beat his man sees him draw fouls on the flanks too.
BuildABet @ 25/1
- Wales to win in 90 minutes
- Both teams to score
- Neco Williams to win 2+ fouls
- Nicola Zalewski to win 2+ fouls
This Poland team aren't the side of yesteryear; in fact they are especially vulnerable and Wales can take advantage in front of a sell-out crowd to get the job done in 90 minutes.
Both teams should hit the net though, with neither side boasting a strong defence. BTTS has landed in all of Wales' last four qualifiers, while clipping in Poland's last three.
Williams will draw the fouls as he regularly does when playing for Wales, as does Poland left-wing back Nicola Zalewski, who since breaking into the XI has been fouled an average of 2.01 times per 90.
Team news
Wales came through their win over Finland unscathed, meaning we should see an unchanged XI for this game, though Daniel James could be one player to force his way in.
Matty Cash picked up an injury in Poland's win over Estonia, meaning he will play no part on Tuesday. Fellow right back Przemysław Frankowski also got a knock in that game, and he's touch and go to start here.
Predicted line-ups
Wales: Ward; Mepham, Rodon, Davies; Roberts, Ampadu, J. James, Williams; Brooks; Wilson, Johnson
Poland: Szczesny; Kiwior, Bednarek, Dawidowicz; Bereszynski, Zielinski, Slisz, Piotrowski, Zalewski; Swiderski, Lewandowski
Match facts
- Wales and Poland have faced each other on 10 previous occasions, while the only victory for the Dragons came in their first-ever meeting back in March 1973 (2-0) – they’ve gone winless across the nine clashes since then (D2 L7).
- Wales have lost each of their last six games against Poland (all played between 2001 and 2022); the only other non-British nation they’ve had a longer losing run against is the Netherlands, with 10 straight defeats between 1988 and 2002.
- Poland have won each of their last three away games against Wales, all of which have been in competitive action (2-1 in 2001, 3-2 in 2004 and 1-0 in 2022). Indeed, the only other European sides they’ve had a longer winning streak away from home against are San Marino (5) and Finland (two runs of four).
- Following their 4-1 victory over Finland, Wales stretched their unbeaten run to seven matches (W4 D3); only once have they recorded a longer streak without defeat under Rob Page (nine games between September 2021 and March 2022 – W4 D5).
- Wales are looking to qualifying for a third consecutive UEFA European Championships tournament, having previously appeared in the 2016 and 2020 editions. In Euro qualifiers played at the Cardiff City Stadium, Wales have only lost one of their last 15 such games there (W10 D4).
- Since the start of 2023, Poland have lost three of their four Euro qualifier matches played away from home (L1), suffering defeats to Czechia, Moldova and Albania in that time. They did win their most recent one, however, away to the Faroe Islands back in October (2-0).
- Harry Wilson has been directly involved in six goals in nine appearances in the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign (three goals, three assists); the most of any player for Wales. The Fulham midfielder has assisted a goal in each of his last two outings, while his 16 chances created are also the most of any player for the Dragons in this qualifying campaign.
- Robert Lewandowski has been directly involved in 24 goals in his last 27 appearances for Poland (16 goals, eight assists), although he’s not scored in any of his three games against Wales to date.
Odds correct at 1510 GMT (19/03/24)
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