Football betting tips: Nations League
2pts Both teams to score at 6/5 (bet365)
1pt Wales to win and BTTS at 3/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, Boylesports)
1pt Neco Williams to have 1+ shots on target at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 11/1
- Wales to win
- Both teams to score
- Williams 1+ shots on target
Craig Bellamy has made an encouraging start to life as Wales boss, with his side delivering three hugely encouraging performances.
The latest, a 2-2 draw in Iceland, really ought to have ended in an away win (xG: ISL 1.17-2.40 WAL). Two goals ahead by the half-hour mark and in control of the game, Wales conceded in the 69th and 72nd minutes, with the latter a desperately unfortunate own goal that hit goalkeeper Danny Ward and went in.
In fairness, thereafter it was all Iceland and Bellamy's side were forced to cling on for a point, but having crumbled so quickly up to that point, the ability to ensure he became the first Wales manager in history to go unbeaten across his opening three competitive fixtures is a huge positive.
That run encompasses an impressive opening game against Turkey in Cardiff where Wales were superb (xG: WAL 2.49-0.79 TUR) but simply could not find a breakthrough, and a hard-fought 2-1 win away to Monday night's opponents, who they should have too much for once again.
What are the best bets?
Despite the absence of key man Brennan Johnson through suspension, and midfielder Jordan James for the same reason, WALES (29th) should complete the double over an opponent they sit 45 places higher than in the FIFA world rankings.
Montenegro have lost five straight matches and five of their last six competitive games, but they showed in the reverse fixture that they will be no pushovers. They racked up 2.58 xG - via 22 shots - in defeat, laying bare Wales' defensive vulnerability.
Opening fixture aside, when their opponents played the final half an hour with 10 players, Wales have struggled in that sense, which is what makes BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE a runner in this contest at 6/5.
A home win isn't worthwhile as a single at the prices, but at 3/1 with several firms WALES TO WIN & BTTS is.
Nottingham Forest full-back NECO WILLIAMS was outstanding against Iceland, delivering an assist in an all-action display.
With no Johnson, it's likely he will be asked to play a more attacking role as he often does as a wing-back at club level, which opens up a much greater possibility of him landing 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET.
As a right-footed left-back, he is always a threat in an attacking sense, not quite enough for the 8/1 price for him to score to be worth backing (although he has scored twice in his last six Wales appearances) but the 11/4 for him to test the keeper just once in 90 minutes very much is.
Williams has had 10 shots on goal for Forest this season in just three starts and five substitute appearances, hitting the target on four occasions.
Team news
Friday goalscorer Brennan Johnson and midfielder Jordan James are both suspended for Wales. Ethan Ampadu, Daniel James and Aaron Ramsey remain out injured.
Joe Allen, who recently reversed his international retirement, could feature but it is more likely Ipswich winger Wes Burns and Bolton's Josh Sheehan come in.
Montenegro have Preston striker Milutin Osmajic available despite him recently being handed an eight-match ban by the EFL for biting an opponent.
Veteran defender Stefan Savic is missing through injury.
Predicted line-ups
Wales: Ward; Roberts, Rodon, Davies, Williams; Sheehan, Cooper; Burns, Wilson, Thomas; Moore.
Montenegro: Mijatovic; Marusic, Vujacic, Sipcic, Radunovic; Bakic, Vukotic, Jankovic; Krstovic, Camaj; Jovetic.
Match facts
- Wales have won both of their two most recent meetings with Montenegro, including in the reverse fixture last month (2-1) – this after the Dragons had lost their first two matches against the Brave Falcons.
- Montenegro have only ever previously faced Wales once away from home, a match which ended in a 2-1 loss during UEFA European Championship qualifying in September 2011.
- In the reverse fixture Wales were 2-0 up after just 2 minutes and 27 seconds, the first time they had scored twice in the opening three minutes of any international since April 1961 against Northern Ireland.
- Wales have won just one of their last nine UEFA Nations League matches (D3 L5), though it was in the reverse fixture against Montenegro last month.
- Montenegro have lost each of their last five matches in all competitions, their longest ever losing run in their young history.
- Wales’ last two home games in all competitions have finished 0-0 – they’ve not failed to score in three consecutive home matches since September 2012, while they’ve never had three consecutive home goalless draws.
- Wales are unbeaten in all three of their games under Craig Bellamy so far (W1 D2) – no Wales manager has gone without defeat in his first four matches in charge before.
- Harry Wilson has been involved in seven goals in his last eight appearances for Wales in all competitions (4 goals, 3 assists), scoring in his last two. He’s never found the net in three consecutive games for the national side.
Odds correct at 1650 BST (13/10/24)
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