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Wales vs Iceland betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Nations League
2pts Wales to score over 1.5 goals at 19/20 (Coral)
1pt Jordan James to be carded at 10/3 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 18/1
- Over 2.5 goals
- Wales to score 2+ goals
- Neco Williams 2+ total shots
- Jordan James to commit 2+ fouls
- Each team 3+ corners taken
Make no bones about it, Wales were awful in Turkey last time out. Craig Bellamy's side came away with a goalless draw despite being out-shot 25-4, losing 3-0 on big chances created and were comfortably beaten in the xG battle 3.04 - 0.24.
Somehow they escaped with a point that means they can still finish top of their Nations League group. For that to happen they need to beat Iceland and hope Turkey lose to already relegated Montenegro, or hammer Iceland by three goals and hope the Turks are held.
The curveball to all of this is that Iceland still have plenty to play for too. They can leapfrog Wales into second with a win in Cardiff, which would see them enter the promotion play-off and Wales drop into the relegation play-off.
We should expect a high intensity international with plenty on the line, and a real gung-ho attitude from both that could make the game a wide-open contest.
What are the best bets?
While I think Wales will prove to be the better of the two sides and win the game, the best priced 7/10 available looks a tad short. I do want to get them onside though, so at near even money I'll back WALES TO SCORE OVER 1.5 GOALS.
Bellamy's men have performed very well in both home games to date, racking up 2.49 and 1.93 xGF in matches against Turkey and Montenegro respectively, being unfortunate to have only one goal to show for their efforts.
Add in the fact they scored twice and created 2.40 xGF in Iceland and the bet starts to take shape.
Iceland have been porous defensively when playing any side not named Montenegro during this Nations League group stage.
Against the basement side, who remain pointless, they allowed just 0.44 and 0.98 xGA, but in three games against Turkey and Wales they've shipped a combined 7.05 xGA - 2.35 per game - and conceded twice in all three, being breached nine times in total.
The clincher here is the game state. Wales have to win big if they have any chance of securing top spot and Iceland need to win if they are to move from the relegation play-off spot to the promotion play-off spot.
Both sides will have to go for it, which should lead to plenty of space and chances. Even if Wales cautious early, Iceland will have to overcommit which should lead to plenty of joy for their attacking talent, and should the hosts take the lead we'll likely see Iceland throw even more bodies forward, increasing the chance of a second.
Iceland go ahead and it's all-out-attack for Wales against a very vulnerable defence.
Given the stakes are high, cards will likely flow too and I simply can't resist another go at JORDAN JAMES TO BE CARDED.
He didn't do the job for us in Turkey, but did make two fouls before being hooked with 20 minutes to go, likely wise by Bellamy as a card was coming his way. Cheers Craig.
I see no reason to abandon ship when 10/3 is being dangled. He's been carded in seven of his last 10 Wales appearances and however this game pans out in terms of game state, James will be in the thick of things.
Referee António Emanuel de Carvalho Nobre is a cracking appointment for card backers, with the Portuguese official having a career cards per game average of 5.28.
Team news
Wales could be without Mark Harris after he was subbed off at half time against Turkey with a head injury. Should he not be available, Dan James could start up top, or Liam Cullen could be brought in.
Iceland will be without left-back Logi Tomasson due to suspension, while captain Aron Gunnarsson is a doubt after picking up an injury last time out.
Predicted line-ups
Wales: Darlow; Roberts, Rodon, Davies, Williams; J. James, Sheehan; D. James, Wilson, Thomas; Johnson
Iceland: Valdimarsson; Lunddal, Palsson, Ingason, Sampsted; Gudmundsson, Traustason, Johannesson, Thorsteinsson; Gudjohnsen, Oskarsson
Match Facts
- Wales have lost just one of their eight meetings with Iceland in all competitions (W5 D2), going down 1-0 in a World Cup qualifier in September 1984.
- Iceland have lost their last three away games against Wales in all competitions. This is their first such visit since a 3-1 loss in March 2014.
- Wales are unbeaten in their five matches under Craig Bellamy (W2 D3), all of which have been in the UEFA Nations League. This is the longest unbeaten run to begin a managerial tenure of any Wales boss.
- Wales are on an eight-game unbeaten run on home soil (W4 D4), while they’ve gone 314 minutes without conceding a goal in such games. They could keep four consecutive clean sheets in competitive home fixtures for the first time since September 2016 (4).
- Iceland won 2-0 against Montenegro last time out in the UEFA Nations League and will be looking to win back-to-back competitive away matches for the first time since September 2015 (v Kazakhstan and Netherlands).
- Harry Wilson has been directly involved in more goals than any other Wales player in the UEFA Nations League (7), as well as being their top scorer in the competition (5 goals, 2 assists). He also netted in his only previous appearance against Iceland last month (2-2 draw).
- Orri Óskarsson has scored three goals in four starts for Iceland in the UEFA Nations League, including netting in each of his last two games in the competition. He could become the first player to score in three consecutive appearances for Iceland in the Nations League.
- Neco Williams is one of only three players to have played every minute for Wales under Craig Bellamy so far (450), along with Joe Rodon and Ben Davies. Williams has assisted two goals in his last four international appearances, as many as in his first 39 games for Wales combined (2).
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (18/11/24)
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