Villarreal hold a slender one-goal lead as they welcome Dinamo Zagreb to Spain, and Jake Pearson thinks this could be another cagey affair.
Villarreal were well fancied to get the win in the first leg of this tie, sent off odds-on favourites away at Dinamo Zagreb, and they did come away with a win, though a one goal lead is still a slender one, and this could be a nervy affair for the Spanish side.
Villarreal are of course heavy favourites to win in this fixture, but then again so were Tottenham as they took a two-goal lead into their second-leg tie with Dinamo Zagreb.
Zagreb were impressive on that occasion, but Tottenham were equally poor, and it is difficult to see Villarreal succumbing to the same fate at the Estadio de la Ceramica.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: BT Sport ESPN
The top four is out of the question for Villarreal in La Liga, but securing another season in the Europa League is well within reach, currently eighth in the table and just one point behind Real Sociedad and Real Betis, who occupy sixth and seventh respectively.
This really does represent a good opportunity for the Spanish side to win their first trophy since the UEFA Intertoto Cup back in 2004, and the bookmakers think so too, with Villarreal priced up as 9/2 joint-second favourites to win the competition.
Zagreb will be no pushovers however, as we saw in the first leg, Villarreal in need of a first-half penalty to secure the 1-0 win.
Cagey affair expected in Villarreal
This is likely to be a cagey affair, and for this reason, siding with Villarreal to win by exactly one goal seems a logical selection.
Five of the eleven matches Villarreal have won in La Liga this season have been by exactly one goal (45%), while three of their Europa League victories have also come by the same winning margin, including the first leg of this tie.
Villarreal have also kept six clean sheets in the competition this season, conceding just four goals throughout their European campaign (and three of those came in their 5-3 win over Sivasspor at the very beginning of the competition).
Plenty of bookmakers will offer a Winning Margin market, but in the interest of gaining the best possible price, it is worth delving into the handicap markets.
Backing DRAW (VILLARREAL -1) in a three-way handicap market is effectively the same bet, but whereas the Winning Margin market is offering a best price of 9/4, and as short as 23/10 in places, Betfair Sportsbook are offering a price of 5/2 for the same outcome on the handicap market.
If Villarreal win by one goal, irrespective of the scoreline, then we are collecting, and that feels like a decent bet in this fixture.
Villarreal v Dinamo Zagreb best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Draw (Villarreal -1 handicap) at 5/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Score prediction: Villarreal 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)
Odds correct 1500 BST (13/04/21)
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