Free football betting tips: Aston Villa v Leeds - Premier League preview & best bets

Recommended bets

2pts Ollie Watkins 2+ offsides at 5/6

1pt Aston Villa to win to nil at 17/5

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Aston Villa v Leeds

• 8pm BST kick-off on BT Sport Box Office
• Match odds: Home 6/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/10

This will be the first meeting between the sides since their infamous April 2019 contest that will be remembered for Leeds boss Marcelo Bielsa instructing his players to allow Aston Villa to score unopposed.

A draw at Elland Road that day mathematically confirmed that Leeds couldn't be automatically promoted from the Sky Bet Championship. To rub salt into the wounds, Dean Smith's team would go on to win the play-offs.

Much has changed in 16 months, with both now in what must be considered their natural home given their traditional status as established, top-flight clubs.

Villa have made a sensational start to the season, especially considering their fortunes for 34 games of last term. Just two points from 10 matches had them heading for an immediate return to the Championship; they're now unbeaten in eight.

They have won their opening four games - they last won four straight top-flight matches full stop in 2009 - and no-one can better their average goals scored, average goals conceded, goal difference or clean sheet record. Oh, and they thrashed reigning champions Liverpool 7-2 to record one of the most stunning victories in the Premier League's 28-year existence.

Avoid defeat against Leeds on Friday night and they will take a well-earned place at the top the table.

Their most recent win, a 1-0 victory at Leicester, was significant in showing how far they've come in.

It was a repeat of their Monday Night Football meeting on March 9 which remains the last Premier League fixture to be played before fans. Villa were thrashed 4-0 - only four players that started that game were in Sunday's starting XI.

Survival was built on a defensive solidity which has carried into this campaign, but what has taken Villa up a notch is the arrival of extra quality. One of the new faces to join during the transfer window was Ollie Watkins. His all-round game has been impressive, and a hat-trick against Liverpool went some way to justifying his eyewatering £32m fee. He hasn't scored in his three other league appearances though, so for him to be 8/5 in the anytime market is a little skinny.

What the former Brentford man has done is add a dimension to Villa's play that was sorely lacking last term. Not since Tammy Abraham's return to Chelsea following a superb 2018/19 loan spell have they had a pacey striker who wants to run in behind.

Watkins has been caught offside at least once in every match. Against Leicester and Liverpool, Villa's two most recent opponents, the flag was raised on three and two respective occasions. Like Leeds, those teams use a high defensive line.

The Whites have come up against pacey forwards looking to beat their offside trap in successive games: Wolves' Daniel Podence and Manchester City's Raheem Sterling. Both caught the assistant's attention twice.

Sky Bet has Watkins at 5/6 to match that figure, and 5/2 to repeat the three offsides he managed against Leicester. I'm happy to take the former at a slightly meatier chunk.

For Leeds, it hasn't been a good week. Pre-international break they were quite rightly the darlings of 2020/21 thanks to the entertainment they delivered and impact they made in their opening four games, but wily Wolves did for them on Monday and Kalvin Phillips suffered a shoulder injury that will rule him out until December.

Captain Liam Cooper and fellow defenders Diego Llorente and Gaetano Berardi are all out too so things are looking tricky.

The 11/8 with Unibet and 5/4 across the board for a home win looks generous, a generosity that naturally carries over into the win to nil market. Backing Villa at 17/5 with Bet Victor looks a smart play given that Leeds have scored just twice in three matches, and Villa have kept clean sheets in three of their four league games.

Leeds' defensive issues makes me guarded on the Villa/under 2.5 goals but 9/2 really does look good too.

Elsewhere, I do usually like the tackle market when it comes Leeds. Sky Bet are offering 6/5 on them making 18+ tackles, and while that's tempting when 20+ is the usual benchmark, it's not enough to win me over.

The absence of Phillips and consequent rejig that could see tackle leader Stuart Dallas moved into midfield means it's a watching brief this week.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Best bets:

• Ollie Watkins 2+ offsides at 5/6
• Aston Villa to win to nil at 17/5

Odds correct on 1200 BST (22/10/20)

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