After landing six winners in midweek, including a 5/1 first goalscorer, Joe Townsend previews the Friday night clash between Crystal Palace and Newcastle.
Recommended bets
2pts Crystal Palace to win at 5/4
0.5pt Andros Townsend to score first at 11/1
0.5pt Andros Townsend to score anytime at 24/5
0.5 e.w. Cheikhou Kouyate to score first at 33/1 (1/3 1-99)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Crystal Palace v Newcastle
- 20:00 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video
- Match odds: Home 6/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 12/5
Crystal Palace have a right to go into Friday's fixture with Newcastle feeling a little aggrieved.
The Eagles rounded-off last weekend's action by losing 1-0 at Burnley in the Monday Night Football, while the Magpies kicked things off by going down 2-0 at home to Chelsea; four days' rest meets six-and-a-half.
But so poor have Steve Bruce's team been this season, scabbing their way to the vast majority of their 11 points, that I'm happy to write-off any extra fatigue as inconsequential when it comes to predicting the outcome.
Newcastle have been dominated by Southampton and Chelsea in successive 2-0 defeats, with their luck having seemingly running out. No team has had fewer shots, or shots on target than the Magpies this term and that is unlikely to helped on Friday should top-scorer Callum Wilson be missing through injury again.
On the whole, Palace must be happy with their start. Though fairly inconsistent performance-wise - impressive wins over Southampton, Manchester United and Leeds but comfortable losses to Chelsea and Wolves - a fifth victory of the campaign would draw them level with sixth-placed Everton.
They had plenty of chances at Turf Moor last time out, denied by a combination of resolute defending, wastefulness and excellent goalkeeping.
But one crucial bit of team news to bear in mind is that Wilfried Zaha missed that defeat following a positive Covid-19 test, and could well be absent again - a huge blow given the Eagles' record of 14 defeats from 16 without him.
Although the Ivorian has been better than ever this term, providing five goals and two assists already, the summer arrivals of Ebere Eze and Michy Batshuayi means Palace shouldn't be as reliant on him as in the past.
And that's why I'm happy to stick with a win for Roy Hodgson's men, especially given the opposition. They are generally priced at 5/4 for victory, which for me is way too big.
Newcastle will undoubtedly aim to keep things tight. Three of their past four games have seen under 2.5 goals, and their last five top-flight away trips have done so too.
Half of Palace's matches in all competitions have been under 2.5 affairs, so I actually don't think the 4/6 general price on that paying out here is a terrible price. Not amazing value, but not terrible.
Combining that with a home win offers 10/3 with Paddy Power, which is certainly appealing. However, what you perhaps wouldn't expect with a Hodgson team is that Palace haven't kept a Premier League clean sheet since their opening-day win over Everton.
But the best you can get for Palace/under 3.5 goals is 7/4, and that's not enough of an increase from the straight outright bet for me to take it on, especially as the Eagles beat Leeds 4-1 in their last home game and won 3-1 at Old Trafford earlier in the campaign.
In the goalscorer markets there are a couple of Palace players I like, starting with a man who's up against his former club.
Andros Townsend, an England regular when his current club manager was Three Lions boss, has been getting closer and closer in recent games.
He scored a stunning strike in the second match of the season against Manchester United, one of four attempts that day. But Townsend then went four games without pulling the trigger, and someone must have had a word.
Recent games against Wolves (3), Leeds (1) and Burnley (3) have seen him back to his normal self. His accuracy has been pretty good this season too, with around half his shots hitting the target.
I like the 11/1 first goalscorer and 5/1 anytime odds with 888Sport and Unibet, and will be taking a small interest in both. But I won't lie, I was very tempted by Sky Bet's 10/1 for Townsend to score from outside the box.
But I just have a nagging suspicion that should Zaha be missing, Townsend could take penalty duties. He was previously second in command to Luka Milivojevic, last scoring from the spot in January 2019. Jordan Ayew was the man Zaha usurped though, so it's more likely the Ghanaian would take back control.
The other man who makes the staking plan is Cheikhou Kouyate.
The giant Senegalese midfielder has been operating in defence this season, and with that has come a central role as an attacking threat at set-pieces.
He's already found the net once, and has had three further attempts. Central defensive colleague Scott Dann was amongst the goals in Palace's last home game, and they scored another from a set-piece when Helder Costa turned into his own net.
Newcastle have conceded four set-piece goals already, and were lucky not to add even more to Federico Fernandez's own goal against Chelsea last time out. Kurt Zouma headed inches wide when unmarked, and they rarely looked comfortable when the ball came into the box.
Sky Bet have Kouyate at 33/1 each-way to score first, paying 1/3 to 99 places. The only other bookmaker offering the same market is bet365. The fact they have him at 14/1 shows just how good a price that is.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
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