Manchester City's quest for Champions League glory continues as they face Lyon on Saturday. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Raheem Sterling to have 3+ shots on target at 9/2
1pt Leo Dubois to be shown a card at 18/5
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Manchester City v Lyon
- Saturday August 15 | 20:00 BST
- Match odds: City 1/4 | Draw 17/4 | Lyon 11/1
Even after Lyon dumped Juventus out of the Champions League at the round of 16 stage, Manchester City would have seen this as the ideal tie in their quest for European glory.
Lyon finished 7th in Ligue 1 following the decision to end their campaign early. City may have concluded the 2019/20 season with some distance between themselves and Liverpool, but they finished in great fashion with four of their final five games being won by a four-goal margin or greater.
They also picked up that 4-2 aggregate victory over Real Madrid where they won both legs. City are 1/4 favourites for success in 90 minutes here and it's hard to argue with the price given how the Asian Handicap has them at -1 at the time of writing.
City are yet to lose in this competition and it's difficult to see the favourites being knocked out by a Lyon side who are huge 11/1 outsiders. A solid performance will be required to put themselves in a good position for a difficult looking semi-final fixture against either Barcelona or Bayern Munich.
Even with Pep Guardiola's rotation policy, he is likely to stay as close to last week's team as possible given the final result. That means a front three of Phil Foden, Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling, with the latter two netting in the win over Real.
Alongside a goal, Sterling posted three shots on target in that success at the Etihad and it's worth investigating the possibility of him doing the same against weaker opposition at a price of 9/2.
It's clear that the Champions League is the competition that Sterling enjoys the most in an attacking sense. His average shots on target figure per 90 minutes stands at 1.3 in the Premier League yet it shoots up to 2.3 in Europe's elite club competition.
He is also more clinic with his opportunities in this competition. That 1.3 figure came from a total shots per 90 of 3.4. In the Champions League, his total shots average is 3.7 and the on target number is much better.
It's why he's netted six goals in eight appearances. It's worth noting that this Lyon side concede the joint-most shots per game (13.1 with Barcelona) of any side remaining in the competition this season.
Against a side in the top-five for shots per game in the Champions League (16), we should expect plenty of opportunities for Sterling to strike and boost his shots on target figure again.
The appointment of Danny Makkelie as referee could signal cards in this contest. Only one of his six Champions League games this season has failed to bring at least three yellow cards.
The five he dished out in Bayer Leverkusen's recent Europa League victory over Rangers reinforce the fact that he is a stricter official in European competitions - therefore creating some value in the cards market.
It could spell trouble for a Lyon side who commit an average of 12.1 fouls per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season.
One player who could catch the referee's attention is Leo Dubois. He's been shown six yellow cards across all competitions which came despite missing three months of the season through injury.
There's a best price of 18/5 that he is shown a card in 90 minutes here. He could well go above his average of 1.3 fouls per game given City's quality out wide.
As mentioned above, City's outright price for victory here is just too short to consider backing as a single - even if they are fancied to progress to the semi-finals.
Instead, the 2/1 on City to win with a -2 handicap could be worth a play considering their strong conclusion to the Premier League campaign and the margins that came with it.
It should end up being a game where Lyon find themselves on the back foot throughout and may well end up in training ground 'attack v defence' territory.
City are favourites for Champions League glory and these are games that they not only have to win but also send a message out to their rivals. It's a huge opportunity for Guardiola's men.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Lyon (Score prediction: 13/2)
Best bet: Raheem Sterling to have 3+ shots on target at 9/2
Best bet: Leo Dubois to be shown a card at 18/5
Opta facts
- This will be the third UEFA Champions League meeting between Manchester City and Lyon; no side have the Citizens faced on more occasions in the competition without a victory than Lyon (P2 W0 D1 L1).
- Manchester City have reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League for a fourth time in the last five seasons (the only exception being 2016-17); however, they have only progressed from one of their previous three quarter-final appearances, knocking out PSG in 2015-16.
- Lyon are the first French side to reach the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League since Monaco in 2016-17, whilst this is their first appearance at this stage of the competition since 2009-10. The French side have progressed from just one of their four Champions League quarter-final ties – eliminating Bordeaux in 2009-10.
- Should Manchester City progress, there will be an English representative in the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions League for a third consecutive season, the longest such run since between 2003-04 – 2008-09 (six successive campaigns).
- Having failed to win any of their first six UEFA Champions League games against English sides (D3 L3), Lyon remain unbeaten in their last four against such opposition (W2 D2), including a win and a draw against Man City in last season’s group stages.
- Manchester City have lost just one of their last 17 UEFA Champions League games (W13 D3), however that defeat did come in last season’s quarter finals against Tottenham (P9 W7 D2 L0 since).
- Since progressing from his first seven UEFA Champions League quarter-finals - with Barcelona and FC Bayern München - Pep Guardiola has been eliminated in each of his two appearances at this stage of the competition with Man City (17-18 & 18-19). The Spaniard will be aiming to reach his eighth semi-final which would be a joint record for a manager in the competition alongside José Mourinho.
- Lyon’s Memphis Depay has scored in six successive UEFA Champions League games - Ruud van Nistelrooy is the only Dutch player to go on a longer scoring streak in the competition’s history (a run of nine in the 2002-03 campaign).
- Gabriel Jesus has been directly involved in more UEFA Champions League goals for Manchester City this season than any other player (9 – 6 goals & 3 assists). A goal in this game would see the Brazilian become just the third player to score in three separate Champions League knockout matches in a single campaign for the Citizens after Sergio Agüero and Raheem Sterling (both in 2018/19).
- Last time out against Real Madrid, Raheem Sterling scored his 20th UEFA Champions League goal for Man City, becoming just the sixth Englishman to reach this tally in the competition. He has never ended on the losing side in a Champions League game when he has scored (W14 D2) – only six players have scored in more games without losing any of them in the competition’s history (Patrick Kluivert holding the record – P25 W23 D2 L0 in games scored in).
Odds correct as of 1845 BST on 13/08/20
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