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Turkey vs Wales betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Nations League
2pts 60+ booking points at evens (Sky Bet)
1pt Jordan James to be carded at 19/5 (Unibet)
1pt Brennan Johnson to be carded at 23/5 (Unibet)
BuildABet @ 19/1
- 60+ booking points
- Jordan James to be carded
- Brennan Johnson to be carded
- Hakan Calhanoglu 1+ shot on target
It's crunch time for Wales. They travel to Turkey knowing they likely need to win if they are to win their Nations League group, with a draw leaving them needing to beat Iceland and see Turkey lose to Montenegro in the final round of fixtures.
A win for Turkey seals automatic promotion to League A, so the stakes are pretty high here, well, for a non-tournament international anyway.
Both sides are unbeaten, and the pair played out a goalless draw in the first meeting. While there were no goals, there was a whole lot of something else... CARDS.
What are the best bets?
This one is simple for me.
These teams meet for the fourth time in two years, with the previous three games being explosive for cards. There is definitely some needle between the pair, and all previous clashes have been important games, just as this is.
In Euro 2024 qualifying, their two matches 15 yellows and a red, while the first meeting in this Nations League campaign delivered seven yellows and a red.
That alone has me excited at the thought of cards, and that's before we get to the referee.
Juan Martinez Munuera looks a fantastic appointment for card backers, the Spaniard averaging 4.5 cards per game this season.
I think backing 60+ BOOKING POINTS looks a good starting place at even money.
The last three meetings between the pair have seen 75, 80 and 105 booking points, so with the stakes high and the referee card happy, I'll make that my main bet of the preview.
That's not to mention that this bet has won in two of Turkey's four Nations League games and three of Wales' four.
With cards fancied it also makes sense to look around at some player card prices, and BRENNAN JOHNSON TO BE CARDED looks a slice of value at nearly 5/1 with Unibet.
Johnson has been in fine form this season in terms of scoring, but I've always been keen on backing him to be booked given his fiery nature and willingness to hack anyone down at any given moment.
He's already been booked in two of Wales' three Nations League games, missing the last match through suspension, highlighting his propensity to pick up a carded.
Since 2022 for Wales he's been booked four times in 15 competitive matches, so I was expecting a price of around 5/2 for this clash.
The kicker for this is that he gets massively up for games against Turkey it seems. Johnson has been booked in both of the last two clashes between the nations - one for 'unsportsmanlike conduct' and one for 'roughing'.
JORDAN JAMES is available at 19/5 TO BE CARDED and that price should be snapped up. The 12/5 with bet365 looks huge too, with the same bet priced at 23/20 in places.
James' card record for Wales since being brought into the set-up is sensational, picking up seven cards in his last nine appearances for his country.
That run includes getting a card in a friendly...
The only question is whether he'll start having barely kicked a ball for his club side Rennes. He has started two of Wales' four Nations League games so far, but was suspended for the latest match.
Should he start, we are on at a cracking price, while even if he comes off the bench, the chances are high of him having his name taken in what is going to be a high-octane, high-card match.
Team news
Turkey are missing a couple of players through injury for this game with Emirhan Topcu and Ahmed Kutucu both expected to miss out.
Wales boss Craig Bellamy will have to do without Kieffer Moore, Nathan Broadhead and Wes Burns for this game, the trio withdrawing from the squad.
It will be interesting to see whether Bellamy sticks with the back three he deployed against Montenegro or returns to a 4-2-3-1, with all of David Brooks, Daniel James, Harry Wilson and Brennan Johnson available for the first time.
Mark Harris will be hoping to keep his spot up front, though we could see James or Johnson deployed as the centre-forward.
Predicted line-ups
Turkey: Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu; Calhanoglu, Kokcu; Kahveci, Guler, Yildiz; Akturkoglu
Wales: Darlow; Williams, Rodon, Cabango, Davies; James, Sheehan; Brooks, Wilson, B Johnson; Harris
Odds correct at 1545 BST (14/09/24)
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