Following a selection of winning tips at the weekend, Tom Carnduff has a look at the four Premier League fixtures taking place on Tuesday night.
Recommended bets
1pt Jefferson Lerma to score anytime in Bournemouth v Huddersfield at 14/1
1pt Brighton to be leading at half-time at 11/4
1pt Will Hughes to be shown a card in Watford v Manchester City at 9/2
1pt Over 13.5 corners in Watford v Manchester City at 21/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Bournemouth v Huddersfield
After Huddersfield picked up their first away win of the season at Wolves, a three-game unbeaten run came to an end at the hands of Brighton at the weekend.
Goals from Shane Duffy and Florin Andone cancelled out Mathias Jorgensen's opener, which had arrived after just 58 seconds on Saturday, and Huddersfield are left a single point above the relegation zone.
David Wagner's side are the 9/2 outsiders here and it should be a home win as the Cherries aim to move into the top-six.
Huddersfield have conceded 14 goals in just six away games this season and Bournemouth, who have failed to score in just three games this season, only one of which came at the Vitality Stadium, should fancy their chances.
My eye was immediately caught by the huge 14/1 available on Jefferson Lerma to score anytime.
The Colombian returns from a one-match suspension and should come into bolster the midfield. He has a goal on his tally already and also sits fifth for shots taken in this Bournemouth side, the majority of which have come from outside the area.
Some firms are as short as 9/2 and anything double-figures should be snapped up as he looks a legitimate threat to a Huddersfield side whose confidence took a severe blow on Saturday.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-0 Huddersfield (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Jefferson Lerma to score anytime at 14/1
Opta facts
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in six home matches against Huddersfield Town in all competitions (W3 D3) since losing 0-1 in League One in August 2007.
- Huddersfield lost 4-0 at the Vitality Stadium against Bournemouth last season in the Premier League, conceding from four of the five shots on target they faced in the game.
- Bournemouth are looking to avoid five consecutive league defeats for the first time since March 2013, when they were in League One.
- Bournemouth have lost their last two home Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 15 at the Vitality Stadium (W8 D5 L2).
- Huddersfield haven’t won a midweek top-flight game (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) since March 1971 (3-0 vs Crystal Palace), drawing six and losing eight since then.
- Following their 2-0 win at Wolves in their last away game, Huddersfield are looking to secure back-to-back top-flight victories on the road for the first time since April 1956.
- Huddersfield have scored fewer second half goals than any other Premier League side this season, netting just twice after half-time.
- Huddersfield are the only side in the top four tiers of English football not to reach double figures for goals so far this season. The Terriers have netted just nine times in 14 games.
- Bournemouth striker Callum Wilson has scored five league goals against Huddersfield – all his goals have come in 4-0 wins; two in August 2014 and a hat-trick in November 2017.
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has scored seven goals in his 14 Premier League games this season, just one fewer than he managed in 28 league matches last term.
Brighton v Crystal Palace
The headline act for Tuesday night's football comes from the Amex as Brighton take on rivals Crystal Palace.
The bookmakers are struggling to call this one with win-draw-win trading close to the 2/1 mark for each of the three options.
Both sit in the bottom-half of the table, although the hosts are six points clear of the Eagles ahead of kick-off.
Brighton probably represent the better value given that the do sit in the top-half of the home standings, while four of Palace's last five games away games in all competitions have ended in defeat.
There's also value in backing the home side to make a quick start. Two of Brighton's last three games here have seen them score inside the opening 25 minutes, while Pascal Gross missed a penalty against Fulham which could have made that record three in five.
Palace conceded in the opening minutes in their loss away at Bournemouth, while Alvaro Morata scored in the 32nd minute to give Chelsea the lead at Stamford Bridge.
Brighton have scored a first-half goal in six of their last seven Premier League games, so take the 11/4 on offer for the home side to be leading at half-time, with the half-time/full-time option also tempting at around 4/1.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Opta facts
- Brighton and Crystal Palace last met at the Amex Stadium in January in the FA Cup third round – the Seagulls won 2-1.
- Crystal Palace’s last away win at the Amex Stadium was in the Championship play-offs in May 2013, winning 2-0 thanks to a Wilfried Zaha brace; they’ve drawn one and lost one game there since.
- Each of Brighton’s last seven Premier League victories have been by a one-goal margin, last winning by more in February (4-1 vs Swansea).
- Crystal Palace – who beat Burnley last time out – are looking for consecutive Premier League victories for the first time this season.
- Brighton haven’t won any of their six midweek Premier League matches (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), drawing three and losing three.
- Brighton have won four of their last seven games in the Premier League (D1 L2), as many as their previous 19 combined in the competition.
- Crystal Palace winger Wilfried Zaha has scored five goals against Brighton in all competitions – more than he has against any other opponent.
- Brighton manager Chris Hughton is still yet to defeat Crystal Palace in a league match as Seagulls boss (P2 W0 D1 L1) – should he win this game, Palace will become the second side he’s beaten in a league game with four different teams, along with Reading; he’s beaten the Eagles with Newcastle, Birmingham and Norwich previously.
- In all competitions, Glenn Murray has scored five goals in eight appearances in this fixture, scoring three in five games for Crystal Palace and two in three for current side Brighton.
- Only Mohamed Salah (6) has scored the opening goal of more Premier League games this season than Brighton’s Glenn Murray (4).
West Ham v Cardiff
Neil Warnock celebrated his 70th birthday in the best possible fashion as Junior Hoilett's stunner handed his side all three points in a 2-1 win over Wolves.
Cardiff's away record continues to hold them back in the top-flight though with just one point in six games on the road, and you'd expect them to leave the London Stadium empty-handed.
The Hammers may have lost two of their last three at home, but those defeats came against Manchester City and Tottenham and this is a fixture they'll expect to win.
One of the more surprising statistics of this Premier League season is that Cardiff sit bottom of the standings for cards picked up away from home - Warnock's men have picked up just six yellows and one red so far.
On the flip side, West Ham sit second for total cards shown in the Premier League this season, and perhaps there's some mileage in backing Marko Arnautovic to be shown a card by referee Graham Scott.
The Austrian has two yellows so far, while the stats show that he has committed the highest number of fouls in this West Ham squad. Certainly, at 9/2 that makes more appeal than the odds-on quotes that he scores, but on balance we'll sit this one out.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Opta facts
- West Ham United have won their last six matches in all competitions against Cardiff City, scoring 14 goals and conceding just two in those wins.
- This is the first league meeting between West Ham and Cardiff since the 2013-14 season, when the Hammers won both matches 2-0 in the Premier League under Sam Allardyce.
- West Ham have lost their last three home Premier League games against promoted sides, more than they had in their previous 17 such games in the competition (W11 D4 L2). They’ve never lost four consecutive top-flight home games vs promoted sides.
- Cardiff have lost seven of their eight Premier League games in London, including the last six in a row. Their only victory came at Fulham in September 2013.
- Cardiff are looking to secure consecutive top-flight victories for the first time since April 1962 – the second win back then came against West Ham (3-0).
- No side have won more games from behind in the Premier League this season than Cardiff, with all three of their victories coming in such a manner.
- Cardiff manager Neil Warnock will be aged 70 years and 3 days on the day of this game – the Yorkshireman will become just the fourth manager to manage in the Premier League aged 70, after Sir Bobby Robson, Sir Alex Ferguson and Roy Hodgson.
- Cardiff manager Neil Warnock has never won an away Premier League match in London (P12 W0 D2 L10) – including home games when he was manager of QPR and Crystal Palace, Warnock has picked up just three wins in 30 Premier League matches in London (W3 D8 L19).
- West Ham’s Javier Hernandez scored twice against Newcastle on Saturday – as many goals as he’d scored in his previous 16 Premier League games combined. He’s not scored in consecutive league games since February.
- Felipe Anderson has scored four goals in his last four Premier League games for West Ham. No West Ham player has more scored league goals than the Brazilian this season (5), while he’s also created a club-high 25 chances so far.
Watford v Manchester City
Shock, horror, Manchester City are flying in the Premier League again this season.
Pep Guardiola's men are top of the table with an unbeaten record, draws against Liverpool and Wolves the only occasions where they have dropped points in the league.
City are 3/10 to pick up another victory here but Watford do have the sixth-best home record this season and did beat Tottenham at Vicarage Road at the beginning of September.
With both teams sitting at the top end of the standings for corners per game and Watford having one of the worst disciplinary records in the Premier League, this does have the potential to be a game where the best approach is to speculate with something like a RequestABet.
The Hornets are fifth for cards shown this season and the eye is drawn to Will Hughes, who has been booked three times this season and seems likely to come to the attention of the referee again.
Paul Tierney sits in the top-six for cards shown with 34 yellows, while the five referees above him have all been involved in more top-flight games this season. At a price of 9/2, the value is there on backing Hughes to end up in the book once more.
The last time Watford faced a 'high corner' count side was a 4-0 defeat to Bournemouth at the beginning of October. That game saw a total of 17 corners. Their clash with Newcastle, another high corner side, brought the same total and there is also value in backing corners here.
A best price of 21/5 for 14 or more is available and anything upwards of 3/1 looks worth taking.
Score prediction: Watford 1-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Will Hughes to be shown a card at 9/2
Best bet: Over 13.5 corners at 21/5
Opta facts
- Watford are winless in their eight Premier League meetings with Man City, losing each of the last six in a row (D2).
- Manchester City have scored at least twice in their last eight meetings with Watford in all competitions, winning all eight by an aggregate score of 27-4.
- Manchester City’s last two away league games against Watford have seen them win 5-0 and 6-0 – the only team to score 5+ goals in three consecutive top-flight away games against an opponent is West Brom vs Birmingham, between December 1957 and April 1960.
- Only Preston in the first ever football league campaign of 1888-89 (+43) have had a better goal difference 14 games into a top-flight season than Man City’s +37 this term.
- Watford have beaten the reigning champions at home in each of their last two Premier League campaigns, beating Leicester 2-1 in 2016-17 and Chelsea 4-1 last term.
- Watford have won just two of their last 10 Premier League games (W2 D2 L6), having won each of their first four this season.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in 13 away Premier League games, winning 10 and drawing three. In that run they’ve scored 30 goals, while conceding just five and never more than once in a match.
- Watford have lost three of their last four home Premier League games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 15 at Vicarage Road (W8 D4 L3)
- Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero has scored 10 goals in six games against Watford in all competitions, including a hat-trick in this exact fixture last term.
- Man City’s Raheem Sterling has had a hand in 14 goals in his 12 Premier League games this season (8 goals, 6 assists), more than any other player in the competition.
Odds correct at 1425 GMT on 03/02/18
