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Free football betting tips: Nations League action including Spain v Germany; Switzerland v Ukraine
The final round of Nations League fixtures gets underway on Tuesday and Tom Carnduff has four best bets for the action.
Recommended bets
2pts Under 2.5 goals in Spain v Germany at 21/20
1pt Leon Goretzka to score anytime in Spain v Germany at 11/1
0.5pts Leon Goretzka to score first in Spain v Germany at 25/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Spain v Germany
- 19:45 GMT on Sky Sports Football
- Match odds: Home 6/4 | Draw 23/10 | Away 9/5
The perfect final fixture in League A Group 4 with the winner taking top spot and a place in the last-four in the Nations League. Germany are ahead by one point and Spain need victory; anything but defeat will suit the visitors.
Ukraine looked like they could upset the odds but their defeat to Germany last time out ended their hopes of finishing first. Joachim Löw's men are enjoying a 12-game unbeaten run in all competitions and the 23/10 available on a draw looks a solid outright option here.
The two played out a 1-1 draw in their meeting in Stuttgart in the first game of this Nations League campaign with Spain scoring a 96th minute equaliser to steal a point. There's every chance that we will see a similar scoreline here given Spain's lack of goals.
Six of their last seven games have seen under 2.5 goals and that is, in part, due to their strong defensive record. They have only conceded three across their five games so far, only Portugal and Italy can boast better in League A of this competition.
Three of Germany's last five away have failed to hit three match goals and the odds-against price on that happening here is a tad too generous. Both sides know what is on the line for the winner, that could lead to a tight contest with both perhaps more reluctant than usual.
On the goalscorer side of things, Leon Goretzka was flagged as a potential scorer on Saturday, and while he didn't find the net, he did pose a significant attacking threat with two assists and five total shots. He is a huge 11/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power to strike anytime, that is a price that is just far too big given his showings for club and country.
Despite playing in a deeper role for Bayern, Goretzka has scored four goals in nine appearances across all competitions. He has seen at least one shot in each of his Bundesliga games while there have been five in two Champions League games.
We shouldn't expect many goals in this contest but that will suit the visitors more than the hosts. They need a point to secure their place in next year's finals and it is worth siding with them to do just that in Sevilla.
Score prediction: Spain 1-1 Germany (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals in Spain v Germany at 21/20
Best bet: Leon Goretzka to score anytime in Spain v Germany at 11/1
Best bet: 0.5pts Leon Goretzka to score first in Spain v Germany at 25/1
Switzerland v Ukraine
- 19:45 GMT on Sky Sports (Red Button)
NOTE: THIS GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED SINCE THIS PREVIEW WAS PUBLISHED
The main focus may be on the top of this group as Spain battle it out with Germany but Switzerland and Ukraine are both threatened with relegation. The visitors sit three points above and beat Switzerland 2-1 in their previous meeting; the home side need to match that or better it to avoid finishing bottom.
The home side are odds-on favourites here which seems fair based on Ukraine's recent results and current squad issues. They did secure a win over Spain but have been beaten convincingly by Germany and then in Madrid, while France hit seven past them in a friendly last month.
The Asian Handicap has the home side sitting in a comfortable -0.75 which has led to the huge difference in outright pricing. Instead, it's worth taking Switzerland to be winning at half-time at a much better 6/4. That is a price that is odds-against across the board.
Switzerland have been leading at half-time across their last three games in all competitions while Ukraine have been trailing at the break in their last four on the road. Even if results haven't been coming for the hosts, they have at least made bright starts.
There is also much more riding on this game for Switzerland than Ukraine, even if both are trying to avoid the same outcome, because of the current table. The longer the game remains level the more nervy it becomes for the home side, they need to make a quick start once again to set them on their way.
William Hill have the best price with 6/4 available on Switzerland to be winning at half-time, although you can find 11/8 and 5/4 everywhere else. A home win looks decent for inclusion in any Tuesday night accumulators but the extra value comes in that half-time betting.
Score prediction: Switzerland 2-0 Ukraine (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (16/11/20)
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