There's three games in the FA Cup third round on Tuesday night. Tom Carnduff has 6/1 and 16/1 best bets to back.
Recommended bets
1pt Callum Roberts to score anytime in Blackburn v Newcastle at 6/1
1pt Moritz Bauer to score anytime in Stoke v Shrewsbury at 16/1
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Blackburn v Newcastle
Ewood Park, 1945 GMT, BT Sport 2
Newcastle were on the verge of joining the other Premier League teams who fell at the first hurdle, and they still may not make the fourth round as they face a replay against Blackburn.
The Magpies are set to make changes again for this one and will be without injured trio Jonjo Shelvey, Mo Diame and Paul Dummett, while other first team players will be rested following Saturday's defeat to Chelsea.
Rafa Benitez defended his selection in the original game and is set to operate the same policy here.
"Cardiff, Fulham, nearly Southampton, why do you see these teams and they were out? Because the Premier League is massive," he said in his pre-match press conference.
"You have £130million guaranteed if you are there. So everyone is trying to manage the situation. Also, you have to be realistic.
"Who has a chance, a realistic chance? Teams in the middle of the table because they can have a go because they are safe. The other teams, you have to manage it really carefully."
One player who I'm keeping an eye on ahead of this game is Callum Roberts, with the youngster in the squad for the trip to Ewood Park.
Primarily playing on the left wing, the 21-year-old has experience on the right or through the middle where required. He has nine goals and six assists in 12 Premier League 2 games, while he netted three and provided another two assists in five Checkatrade Trophy contests this season.
With a real chance of starting, the general price of 6/1 for a goal anytime looks great value. Blackburn are unlikely to go full strength in this contest either and his record playing for the under-23s in the Checkatrade Trophy highlights how he has little issue playing against senior sides.
Best bet: Callum Roberts to score anytime at 6/1
Opta facts
- Blackburn have won just two of their 12 FA Cup matches against Newcastle United (D4 L6). However, both of those victories have come at home, winning 4-1 in the third round in 1927-28 and 1-0 in the fifth round in 1992-93.
- Blackburn are unbeaten in their last three games against Newcastle United in all competitions (W2 D1) – the Magpies last went longer without a victory against Blackburn in all competitions between May 2007 and February 2011 (P7 W0 D1 L6).
- Newcastle United have been taken to a replay in the third round of the FA Cup for the second time in the last three seasons, progressing past Birmingham in 2016-17.
- Blackburn have lost their last three FA Cup ties against Premier League opponents, since beating Stoke 4-1 in the fifth round in 2014-15.
Luton v Sheffield Wednesday
Kenilworth Road, 1945 GMT
Two sides who are both under caretaker control meet following a goalless draw at Hillsborough.
An away trip to Chelsea awaits the winner of this one, and it's the side from League One who look good value to be heading to Stamford Bridge at the end of the month.
They may have lost boss Nathan Jones to Stoke, but the fact remains that they still boast the best home record in England's third tier. They've picked up 33 points from 13 league games in front of their own supporters.
They've dropped points in just three home games during the 2018/19 campaign, an extraordinary record that has helped to put them second in the division.
Depending on the appointment made for a new permanent manager, Luton look good for promotion to the Championship.
In Sheffield Wednesday, they face a side who have a poor record on the road. They sit 16th in the away standings, earning 14 points from a possible 42.
Their last away win came at Middlesbrough under Lee Bullen's guidance, although they were heavily beaten 3-0 by Hull at the weekend.
At a price of 7/5 with Sky Bet, it's worth backing a Luton victory in 90 minutes here.
Best bet: Luton to win at 7/5
Opta facts
- Luton have lost just one of their last 13 games against Sheffield Wednesday in all competitions (W5 D7) and are unbeaten against the Owls since a 2-3 defeat in the top-flight back in February 1992 (W4 D5 since).
- Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in five of their last seven FA Cup games (W2 D3 L2) and in each of their last three (D2 L1).
- Luton have progressed from six of their last seven FA Cup replays, most recently beating Bury 1-0 in 2014-15 to progress through to the third round.
- Sheffield Wednesday have been eliminated from the FA Cup by third tier sides on each of the last four occasions they have come up against such opponents, most recently losing 2-3 against Shrewsbury Town in the fourth round in 2015-16.
Stoke v Shrewsbury
Bet365 Stadium, 1945 GMT
Nathan Jones is also in FA Cup replay action as his Stoke side take on Shrewsbury.
The Potters were beaten in convincing fashion when they travelled to Brentford in Jones' first game in charge, managing just two shots in a 3-1 defeat.
They should feel more comfortable in a home tie against League One Salop though and will expect to see the majority of chances.
Jones it set to make the changes for this one and give more playing time to those on the fringe of the first team with a huge clash against Leeds next on their league agenda.
"Mame Diouf is away due to family reasons and Bojan was ill today, so he’s the only one that didn’t train," he said on Monday.
"The rest were all out on the pitches and we’re probably looking stronger than we did at the weekend.
"There are a few little knocks as you’d expect coming off the back of a game at the weekend but we certainly seem in good shape."
One player who is looking like he will benefit from a managerial change is Moritz Bauer. The right-back has been limited to just three games in the league this season alongside two substitute appearances in the Carabao Cup.
Jones is a manager who likes attacking full-backs and he fully expects them to contribute as much in attack as they do in defence. Given the managers at the helm since Bauer came to the club, he has had little opportunity to showcase his ability going forward.
This seems like the perfect game where he can show that he is the full-back suited to their new system. His four assists for Rubin Kazan in the season prior to making the switch to Stoke showcase that he can provide if given the chance.
With that new manager and lower league opposition, I'm more than willing to take the 16/1 on offer for him to open his goal scoring account on Tuesday night.
Best bet: Moritz Bauer to score anytime at 16/1
Opta facts
- Stoke have lost just one of their nine home matches against Shrewsbury Town in all competitions (W3 D5), a 1-3 defeat in the third tier back in September 1990.
- Shrewsbury Town have won just one of their 29 away FA Cup games against sides from a higher division (D6 L22), a 1-0 victory against Cardiff City in the third round in 2015-16.
- Stoke have lost three of their last five FA Cup matches against sides from a lower division (W1 D1) – more than they had in their previous 25 matches in the competition against such opponents (W16 D6 L2).
- Since 2015/16, no side has kept more clean sheets in the FA Cup than Shrewsbury Town (10 – level with Chelsea).
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (14/01/19)
