With profit returned at the weekend, Tom Carnduff is searching for more and has three best bets for Tuesday's Champions League action.
Recommended bets
2pts Atletico Madrid to beat Bayern at 21/20
1pt Phil Foden to score anytime in Porto v Manchester City at 12/5
1pt Ajax to beat Liverpool at 15/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Atletico Madrid v Bayern
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport ESPN
- Match odds: Home 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 12/5
The highlight of Tuesday's action in the Champions League as Atletico Madrid welcome Bayern. A strong home side taking on a team with a great away record; a contest that would have had real potential to go either way.
I would be all over Bayern being priced at 12/5 for victory in any game, but I'm glad I waited for Hansi Flick's press conference before committing to a result here. They will not be at full strength.
The reason for Atletico's near even money price is clear. You have to go back to December 2019 for the last time they lost at home, that was a 1-0 defeat thanks to a Lionel Messi goal for Barcelona. They are a strong side in familiar surroundings but Bayern's record on the road is a big positive.
However, this isn't a usual game for Bayern and they will be resting key players for this contest. Flick has confirmed that Robert Lewandowski, Manuel Neuer, Leon Goretzka and Corentin Tolisso will all remain in Germany as they are rested. Combine that with injuries and it makes it a tough task for the current champions.
Atletico are of course without a couple of forward options but this Bayern team will be far weaker given those absentees. The rest of the squad may be available, but it's a question of how much Flick is willing to commit on the basis of those already missing.
Then there are the circumstances going into the game. The fact is that Atletico have to win or they risk falling out of the top-two going into the final matchday. Bayern will finish top, that can't be changed, but Atletico are in a battle to reach the knockout stages.
Bayern's midfield is a problem as it is with injuries, let alone when you start leaving players out through choice. The Bavarian giants have decent squad depth but this shouldn't be enough to get past Atletico. At an odds-against price, and considering the two teams who should feature, Atletico's price provides better value than Bayern's.
Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Bayern (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Atletico Madrid to beat Bayern at 21/20
Opta facts
- This will be the eighth meeting between Atlético Madrid and Bayern Munich in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, with the Spanish side winning just two of the previous seven (D1 L4).
- Bayern Munich have won their last two games against Atlético Madrid in the UEFA Champions League (in 2016-17 and 2020-21), as many as they had in their first five meetings in European competition combined (W2 D1 L2).
- Atlético Madrid have won each of the previous two games they’ve hosted against Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League, with both victories coming by a 1-0 scoreline in 2016 – firstly in the semi-final first leg in 2015-16 and then in the group stage the following season.
- After losing five consecutive away games against Spanish opponents in the UEFA Champions League between 2013-14 and 2016-17, Bayern Munich have avoided defeat in each of their last two such games – 2-1 v Sevilla and 2-2 v Real Madrid, both in 2017-18.
- Atlético Madrid manager Diego Simeone has lost three of his five UEFA Champions League meetings with Bayern Munich – against no other opponent has he lost more often in the competition (also three against Real Madrid).
Porto v Manchester City
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home 18/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 7/10
Manchester City got the job done last week as they secured progression to the knockout stages with victory over Olympiacos. Now, the focus is on reaching the next round as winners of Group C and they can do just that by avoiding defeat here.
Porto are all-but-through given their current six-point gap to third and their focus will also be on top spot. City are odds-on here, but Porto's recent form means that it may not be as straightforward as they would have hoped.
The one positive for City is that 5-0 hammering of Burnley on Saturday. It's become a tradition to beat the Clarets so convincingly, but what we did see was a City side that clicked and really showed the signs of the peak Pep Guardiola era - that is something that has been missing so far.
Over 2.5 goals being at 8/11 shows how goals are fancied in this contest and it's worth backing City to grab a couple of those. They have hit ten across their four European games so far and that includes three when these two met at the Etihad last month.
One player to back in the goalscorer market is Phil Foden at a best price of 12/5. The youngster continues to go from strength-to-strength but suffers from limited playing time. That said, this competition seems to be his best route to regular minutes.
Foden has started three of City's four Champions League games so far and scored the only goal of the contest last time out. That is hardly a surprise when we consider that Foden had a total of six shots in that game. His tally for the season now stands at three.
Whether he starts in a more attacking midfield role or part of the forward three remains to be seen but he will provide a threat to goal wherever he will play. His appearance from the bench against Burnley suggests that he could be in line for a start here and if so, that 12/5 will look far too generous based on performances.
It's a tough game to call and perhaps one to avoid when it comes to the midweek accumulators. City are odds-on but Porto have some momentum with them, if we're looking at either side to win, it's worth doing that with goals in the match to bump up the price.
Score prediction: Porto 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Phil Foden to score anytime at 12/5
Opta facts
- FC Porto have lost their three previous meetings with Manchester City by an aggregate score of 2-9, conceding at least two goals in each game.
- Manchester City’s only previous away game at FC Porto in European competition came in February 2012, with the Citizens winning 2-1 in the first leg of a Last 32 tie in the UEFA Europa League (they later progressed 6-1 on aggregate).
- FC Porto are winless in their last five meetings with English teams in the UEFA Champions League (D1 L4), with their last such victory coming against Leicester City back in December 2016 (5-0).
- Manchester City have only lost one of their previous seven games against Portuguese opponents in European competition (W5 D1), however the defeat in this run came in their most recent away game against a Portuguese side (0-1 v Sporting CP in the UEFA Europa League).
- FC Porto have won six of their last seven home games in the UEFA Champions League (L1), however the lone defeat in this run did come against another English opponent (1-4 v Liverpool in April 2019). Indeed, the only game the Portuguese side have failed to win in the competition this season was in the reverse fixture versus Manchester City (1-3).
Liverpool v Ajax
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 4/6 | Draw 10/3 | Away 15/4
Liverpool's defeat to Atalanta last time out has certainly made this an interesting contest. The remaining fixtures should mean that the Reds progress to the knockout stages, but their spot at the top is under threat with both Ajax and Atalanta contenders.
Jurgen Klopp's side won 1-0 in their trip to Amsterdam but the injury problem has worsened since then. It's also worth noting that Ajax's xG in that contest was 1.35; they can consider themselves lucky that the hosts didn't find a way through the Liverpool back line.
That victory for Atalanta gives more belief to the idea that Ajax can come and get something here. Players are missing for the hosts and James Milner may be the latest name on an increasingly growing list of those absent for the current English champions.
The options are becoming increasingly limited and Ajax come into the contest in form. Since that 1-0 defeat to Liverpool, they have won seven of their eight games with the other being a 2-2 draw at Atalanta. It is also worth mentioning they beat Venlo 13-0 in the league just days after losing to Klopp's men.
Their last four games have seen them scoring at least three in each while conceding just once across that period. Liverpool's front line will be strong but so will Ajax's, and the Reds defence will have a tough task of keeping out the visitors.
The fact remains that Liverpool should have lost to Brighton last time out. They were wasteful with their opportunities, posted an xG of 2.22 to Liverpool's 0.32, but needed a 93rd minute penalty given by VAR to grab a point in the contest.
If you haven't seen it already, Klopp's interview with BT Sport after the game is incredible viewing. The argument between him and Des Kelly about the broadcasters influence on fixtures showed that perhaps the cracks are more than appearing in Liverpool's previously impenetrable armour.
Whether he's right or wrong is a completely different debate but it's an interview that will live in the Premier League history books. Liverpool have won just one of their last four, things aren't going as well as they would have hoped and the squad is stretched, Ajax couldn't have asked for a better situation going into this game.
They need to go with a positive approach and we can expect that they will. Alongside the goals, the xG figures in their last six domestic games have all been above 2.10. If they leave this contest empty-handed, it will feel like a big missed opportunity for the Dutch side.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Ajax (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Best bet: Ajax to beat Liverpool at 15/4
Opta facts
- This will be the fourth meeting between Liverpool and Ajax in European competition, with the previous three ending in an Ajax win, a draw and a Liverpool win.
- Ajax have only played away at Liverpool in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League once previously, with the two sides playing out a 2-2 draw in the second leg of a Last 16 tie in 1966-67 (Ajax won 7-3 on aggregate).
- Since losing their first ever game against a Dutch team in European competition (1-5 v Ajax in December 1966), Liverpool have gone unbeaten in 14 subsequent games against teams from the Netherlands (W9 D5).
- Ajax haven’t lost any of their last five away games against English sides in the UEFA Champions League (W1 D4), with the most recent such trip being an entertaining 4-4 draw against Chelsea in November 2019.
- Liverpool’s defeat against Atalanta ended a run of eight consecutive games without defeat in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League (W7 D1), while the Reds have only once previously lost consecutive group stage games in the competition under Jürgen Klopp (in November 2018).
Traders' Tips - Tuesday's Specials
The team at Sky Bet have picked out their two best bets for Tuesday's action in the Champions League...
Target Liverpool and City
Robert Carr
This selection centres on the two English sides in action in Tuesday's Champions League ties. Liverpool's forward line has been enhanced by the addition of Diogo Jota this season and it was in the Champions League where this has been seen to the most devastating effect so far.
In a 5-0 demolition of Atalanta, Jota, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah ran riot, with the team posting a total of eleven shots on target. The Reds also covered this line in their away game against Ajax, hitting the six required in a 1-0 victory on Gameweek 1.
While their last two results make other markets less attractive, they should be shot-hungry at Anfield against an Ajax side that conceded 5 shots on target to a winless Midtjylland side last week.
Manchester City will arrive full of confidence, registering a combined total of 41 shots and 18 shots on target in their last two matches against Burnley & Olympiakos.
They're averaging seven shots on target per game in their four Champions League fixtures so far this season, and possess enough attacking talent to cover this line whatever side Pep Guardiola decides to spin the roulette wheel on in Porto.
Best bet: Liverpool & Manchester City 6+ shots on target each at 7/4
Corners and cards in two big games
Mikey Mumford
The Bavarians will leave Robert Lewandowski at home for their trip to Madrid, news that will encourage Diego Simeone as he plots a three-point haul and a strengthening of Atleti’s grip on the runners-up spot in Group A.
While Atleti may have struggled for goals in the Champions League this term, they clearly haven’t lacked in endeavour racking up 42 corners in their first four fixtures. Their recent double-header with Lokomotiv Moscow saw ten and 16 corners respectively, they posted nine at home to Salzburg and seven at the Allianz Arena in Gameweek 1.
With the attacking intent of Kieran Trippier and Renan Lodi, Madrid look well placed to deliver another plethora of flag-kicks against a Bayern side already looking forward to finding out their Last 16 opponents.
Inter travel to Monchengladbach bottom of Group B and require a win to keep alive their faint hopes of qualification. If that proves beyond Antonio Conte’s men, a one-game shootout with Shakhtar Donetsk may decide their Europa League fate, a trophy they came almighty close to lifting last season.
Inter have collected at least 20 booking points (30, 20, 30 & 55 pts) in their four fixtures so far and tempers flared in the first half at the San Siro last time when Arturo Vidal saw red against Real Madrid. They covered the ‘30+ Booking Points’ line in the group opener against the Germans and this tie takes on even greater significance for both.
Best bet: 6+ Atletico Madrid corners & 30+ Inter Milan booking points at 7/2
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (30/11/20)
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