After landing a 22/1 winner in the last round of fixtures, Tom Carnduff is searching for more and has a 33/1 headline tip.
Recommended bets
2pts Istanbul Basaksehir to score 1+ goals v Manchester United at 5/6
1pt Hakim Ziyech to score anytime in Rennes v Chelsea at 12/5
1pt Diego Carlos to score anytime in Krasnodar v Sevilla at 11/1
0.5pts Diego Carlos to score first in Krasnodar v Sevilla at 33/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Manchester United v Istanbul Basaksehir
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Away 10/1
Manchester United finally secured their first home win of the season as a Bruno Fernandes penalty was the difference in a narrow victory over West Brom. That won't be a surprise to anyone.
They did enjoy the better of the chances but that should be the case when they are taking on a struggling side at Old Trafford. The focus turns back to the Champions League and victory is a must - the defeat in Istanbul a few weeks ago has kept PSG and Leipzig in the running for top spot.
Even with the two victories over those big hitters in Group H, anything less than a win here sets it up to be a nervy conclusion to this stage of the competition. They should do just that, as the 1/4 price suggests, but the near even money price on the visitors grabbing a goal is worth backing.
This is a side that scored two past the same opponent less than three weeks ago. United's defence is so hit-and-miss that it is expected they will concede often. The likes of Newcastle and Brighton, who are fancied to be at the bottom-end of the Premier League for the majority of the campaign, found the net in the contests against Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men.
A questionable VAR decision to overturn a West Brom penalty denied them a golden opportunity to score at the weekend. Then there is the possibility of a changed United side given the hectic schedule currently. The odds are just too generous when you consider the factors.
Manchester United's defending in the first-half... 🥴#UCL pic.twitter.com/NbPdX03cLp
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) November 4, 2020
Istanbul Basaksehir have found the net in five of their last six games in all competitions. They may not have scored against PSG, but they did have 17 attempts on goal, four of which were on target, while they had three shots on target in the defeat away at Leipzig.
The hosts have been seeing eleven shots against per game on average in the Premier League so we could expect the visitors to be sitting around the nine marker, that is the figure they had in the 2-1 victory at the beginning of the month. That said, it is 11/10 on the visitors having ten or more total shots if we were to be a bit braver in this area.
But the near even money price on just one goal for the visitors is enough with little value elsewhere. A United win with both teams scoring is 13/8, but you just don't know with the inconsistency of this team. Settling on the goal at a shorter price seems a better play.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Istanbul Basaksehir (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Istanbul Basaksehir to score 1+ goals at 5/6
Opta facts
- Manchester United have lost three of their last four games against Turkish opponents in European competition (W1), including each of the last two in a row.
- İstanbul Başakşehir’s previous three games against English sides in European competition have seen them lose once, draw once and win once, with their only victory coming in this season’s reverse fixture against Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League.
- İstanbul Başakşehir striker Demba Ba has made four previous appearances at Old Trafford in all competitions, scoring one goal in a 1-1 draw while playing for Newcastle United in November 2011.
- Five of Marcus Rashford’s nine goals for Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League have been scored after coming off the bench – indeed, the only player to score more goals for the club in the competition as a substitute is current manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (7).
Rennes v Chelsea
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home 17/4 | Draw 3/1 | Away 8/13
Chelsea have enjoyed a great few weeks, winning five in a row and scoring at least two goals in each of those victories. For Rennes, it's been five losses across their last six and they sit bottom of this group at the halfway stage.
Some of those defeats were understandable, trips to PSG and Chelsea are likely to bring very little but home losses to Angers and Bordeaux will firmly been seen as poor results. The Blues are odds-on here and it's difficult to argue against their 8/13 value.
Chelsea are yet to concede while Rennes have just one goal in their three games so far. Chelsea's 2/1 price on 'Win to Nil' could well be the better value in the outright markets. Instead, with Chelsea fancied to score a couple as they have done in recent weeks, the value comes in the goalscorer market and backing Hakim Ziyech to strike.
The attacking midfielder scored his first goal in Chelsea colours in the Champions League victory over Krasnodar and then followed that up by striking against Burnley a few days later. His attacking threat is clear and the 12/5 general price on him to score anytime looks a tad too big.
Ziyech has seen seven shots across his two European starts while there have been five shots across his last three Premier League games. He could enjoy a couple here given how Rennes have seen more shots down their left side than their right in Ligue 1.
Chances may well be limited but Chelsea managed to net three goals from just nine shots in the reverse meeting at Stamford Bridge. That is consistent with Rennes' shots against average in the league (9.7) but Ziyech still had opportunities.
Rennes form is concerning and recent results have brought an end to their early season momentum. Beaten by Chelsea and Sevilla already, combined with a home draw against huge outsiders Krasnodar, they are likely to have their exit from the competition confirmed on Tuesday night.
Chelsea will add value to any Tuesday accumulators while the winning with a clean sheet option is probably best as a standalone when it comes to the result. Instead, the best value comes in the goalscorer market and taking Ziyech to strike anytime.
Score prediction: Rennes 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Hakim Ziyech to score anytime at 12/5
Opta facts
- The first European encounter between Rennes and Chelsea was on MD3 of this season’s UEFA Champions League, with the Blues winning 3-0 at Stamford Bridge.
- Rennes are yet to win in any of their three UEFA Champions League matches so far (D1 L2) and are only the second French side to fail to win any of their first three games in the competition, after Montpellier (winless in first six).
- Rennes have lost seven of their last 10 matches in the UEFA Europa League/Champions League (W1 D2), although only one of those defeats was in a home match, losing 1-0 against CFR Cluj in October 2019 in the Europa League.
- Only Marseille (0 goals from 19 shots) have a worse shot conversion rate than Rennes (1 goal from 29 shots, 3.5%) in the UEFA Champions League this season. None of Rennes’ players have attempted more than four shots so far (Serhou Guirassy the most, 4).
Krasnodar v Sevilla
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 4/1 | Draw 16/5 | Away 8/13
Elsewhere in Group E, Sevilla will be hoping to keep the pressure on Chelsea at the top as they travel to a Krasnodar side with just one point on their tally. Victory here will also likely secure their progression to the knockout stages of the competition.
They look good value at 8/13 to do that, and may be worth inclusion in an outright win double with Chelsea. Krasnodar have lost five of their last six games and were beaten 3-2 in a high-scoring contest against Sevilla in their last Champions League outing.
Goals could well be on the cards again here, even if Sevilla are relatively low scorers in the Champions League. Three of their last four games in all competitions have seen over 2.5 goals and it's the same 8/13 price on that happening again here. Instead though, with those goals figures in mind, the goalscorer market again provides the value and Diego Carlos is worth backing at a big price.
The Sevilla defender hasn't scored yet this season but he has had a number of chances to do so. Carlos has seen a huge total of six shots in his last two Champions League games while he has had six shots across eight LaLiga appearances.
25% of the goals conceded by Krasnodar in the Champions League this season have been from set-piece situations, while Sevilla have seen two of their four goals come from corners or free-kicks. It's set up to be a contest where Sevilla can get at least one of their goals from set-pieces.
That will give Carlos and fellow centre-back Jules Kounde the opportunity to strike. Kounde is similar prices to Carlos but we are settling on the latter given the number of chances he has had in European games so far.
The constant transfer links to Juventus won't go away and they should only grow louder if Carlos does strike here. Sevilla winning with over 2.5 goals in the game is the outright choice at a best price of 13/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power but, with that 22/1 winner in the last round of Champions League fixtures, it's worth being brave with another goalscorer and taking the Sevilla centre-back to strike.
Score prediction: Krasnodar 1-3 Sevilla (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Diego Carlos to score anytime at 11/1
Best bet: Diego Carlos to score first at 33/1
Opta facts
- Krasnodar have only hosted Sevilla in a European match once previously, winning 2-1 in a UEFA Europa League match in October 2018.
- In their only previous UEFA Champions League meeting on MD3 this season, Sevilla came from two goals down to win 3-2 at Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán.
- On MD3 against Krasnodar, Sevilla became only the third team in UEFA Champions League history to win a match after having a man sent off when they were losing, after Hamburg against CSKA Moscow in December 2006 and Man City against Schalke 04 in February 2019.
- Sevilla manager Julen Lopetegui has only lost four of his 22 UEFA Champions League matches (W13 D5), though his last defeat in the competition was away in Russia, losing with Real Madrid at CSKA Moscow in October 2018.
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (23/11/20)
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