The hectic Champions League schedule continues on Tuesday and Tom Carnduff has five best bets, including one at a huge 66/1.
Recommended bets
2pts Lokomotiv Moscow to score 1+ goals v Atletico Madrid at 11/10
0.5pt e.w. Lucas Hernandez to be first goalscorer in Salzburg v Bayern at 66/1
1pt Alejandro Gomez to assist 1+ goals in Atalanta v Liverpool at 10/3
1pt Duvan Zapata to assist 1+ goals in Atalanta v Liverpool at 9/1
1pt Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals in the match at 6/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Lokomotiv Moscow v Atletico Madrid
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 17/2 | Draw 18/5 | Away 4/11
Lokomotiv Moscow may only have one point on their tally after two games but they were somewhat unlucky not to get something against Bayern last time out. It was a positive performance that left the current champions shaken.
A stunner from Joshua Kimmich was the difference but the hosts would have been left annoyed by the chances they wasted. With Atletico Madrid coming up next, they can draw confidence from that performance as they look to upset the odds.
Atletico are a side known for strong defensive qualities and that is true in LaLiga this season. However, when it comes to the Champions League, their opening two fixtures have seen six goals conceded. Salzburg and Bayern are teams who like to attack and Lokomotiv will be no different.
The Russian side have scored in their last eight contests and that run can continue with attractive odds of 11/10 available that they find the net at least once here. The xG of 1.51 in that defeat to Bayern shows that being on the scoresheet was no fluke.
When we mention Atletico's defensive record in the league, it should be acknowledged that they should have conceded more than they have. The last three contests have all seen the opposition post xG figures of above 1.0 with Celta Vigo seeing a huge 2.33, but somehow failing to find the net.
Atletico conceded 14 shots in a home contest against Salzburg while there were 16 for Bayern. Lokomotiv had 15 against Bayern and can expect a similar tally here. They may not be the highest scorers in the Russian league but perhaps Lokomotiv relish the underdog tag and playing without fear.
Ultimately though, Atletico will likely justify their heavy odds-on price for victory but that isn't to say it will be comfortable. At odds-against value, it's worth backing the home side to find the scoresheet at least once as they have done regularly over the past couple of months.
Score prediction: Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Lokomotiv Moscow to score 1+ goals at 11/10
Opta facts
- Lokomotiv Moscow have never beaten Atlético Madrid in five previous meetings, drawing 3-3 in the UEFA Cup in 2007 and then losing both games in the 2017/18 UEFA Europa League and 2019/20 Champions League.
- Should Atlético Madrid win this, they will have been Lokomotiv Moscow more often than any other side in major UEFA European competition, having beaten them four times already, never registering five wins over an opponent previously.
- Atlético Madrid have shipped at least two goals in each of their last four UEFA Champions League matches, their worst run in major UEFA European competition since 1981 (a run of five).
- Lokomotiv Moscow’s 2-1 defeat on MD2 against Bayern Munich was their 40th match in the UEFA Champions League – they have lost 25 of their first 40 games, the second-most in the competition’s history behind only Dinamo Zagreb (28).
Salzburg v Bayern
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 1 (Goals Show)
- Match odds: Home 13/2 | Draw 19/4 | Away 1/3
Bayern are another visiting side in Group A heavy odds-on for victory, but this contest should be very entertaining with two strong attacking teams coming up against each other and goals fancied. Over 4.5 in the contest is just 6/4.
Salzburg have scored four and conceded five in their first two games while Bayern have found the net six times. The trends of last season have carried over into the new campaign with the current champions leading the way when it comes to the shots per game average (17.5).
The Austrian side have been phenomenal entertainment when playing at home this season. All five games have seen over 3.5 goals while there have been five or more in three of those contests. Bayern have seen over 2.5 goals in their six away games; these trends should continue here.
With goals such a short price, it's worth delving into the goalscorer markets and the one price that stood out massively was the 66/1 available on Lucas Hernandez being the first goalscorer; the each-way value takes it down to 22/1. Given what we have seen from him in the left-back position so far, that is far too generous.
Even with current absentees and David Alaba's contract situation, it's likely that Hernandez will remain at left-back on Tuesday night. Even if he does end up in a central role, Salzburg conceding the most goals from set-pieces in the Champions League this season still gives the bet hope.
Alphonso Davies is known for his blistering pace but Hernandez looks to play the same attack-minded role when he has to step in. He spent a huge amount of time in the Lokomotiv half last week and his heatmap reflects that. It was almost like he was operating as a winger which isn't a surprise considering how Bayern play.
The preferred full-back partnership of Davies and Benjamin Pavard had direct involvement in 24 goals across all competitions last season (goal/assist) and Hernandez's attacking statistics demonstrate he can play that role. Not only was he virtually camped in the Lokomotiv half at times, his shots numbers highlight how he wants to find the net.
He's had three shots in his last two Bundesliga outings while there have been four across two Champions League appearances. He could have so easily had a goal against Eintracht Frankfurt while he tested the Atletico defence on multiple occasions. That should continue here.
Even with goals expected, this isn't a case of just picking anyone on the pitch to strike. Hernandez has shown that he can effectively play the attacking wing-back role and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him spend more time in the opposition half than his own.
With Bayern's price so short and goals not doing much better, it's worth going for a bigger-priced selection here and taking the 66/1 on Hernandez scoring first each-way. Last week was too close for comfort for Hansi Flick's men, they may have to settle for a more high-scoring repeat in Austria.
Score prediction: Salzburg 2-3 Bayern (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Best bet: Lucas Hernandez to be first goalscorer at 66/1 e.w.
Opta facts
- This will be the first ever competitive encounter between FC Red Bull Salzburg and Bayern Munich.
- Bayern Munich are looking to become the first German side since Fortuna Düsseldorf in October 1980 in the Cup Winners’ Cup to win away at RB Salzburg – in six games since, no German side has emerged victorious (D3 L3) in major UEFA European competition.
- Since the start of last season, only UEFA Champions League games involving Bayern Munich (58) and Atalanta (43) have seen more goals scored than FC Red Bull Salzburg’s eight games (38), despite the Austrians only playing in the group stage in that time.
- Bayern Munich are unbeaten in their last 14 away UEFA Champions League matches (W11 D3), with only Manchester United (16 between 2007 and 2010) having a longer run in the history of the competition.
Atalanta v Liverpool
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 23/10 | Draw 3/1 | Away evens
Liverpool are showing they can cope without Virgil van Dijk but the lack of options in defence could prove costly as they travel to an Atlanta side that have a track record of scoring goals. They lead Serie A with 17 from their opening six games and the Champions League has already brought six.
The Reds have kept a clean sheet in both their group games so far but that should come to an end in Italy. Atalanta have scored in all eight competitive games so far, seven of which have seen two or more going in their favour.
Duvan Zapata has started the season in fine form with five goals across those eight appearances. It's hardly a surprise to see that he is a best price of 7/5 for a goal anytime, although some firms are going into odds-on. That is expected given Liverpool's likely centre-back pairing of Joe Gomez and Rhys Williams.
Nat Phillips was the preferred choice in the Premier League but he doesn't feature in Liverpool's European squad so Klopp will have to look to Williams. While his performance against Ajax was decent enough, Atalanta will enjoy the prospect of coming up against this Liverpool backline.
With those low odds on a goal in mind, it's instead worth looking at the assists market and targeting Zapata and fellow forward Alejandro (Papu) Gomez to record at least one at some point in the night. Betfair provide the best prices here, with Gomez at 10/3 and Zapata a huge 9/1.
Gomez already has three assists on his tally and his form last season helped Atalanta retain their position in Europe's elite competition. He recorded a huge 18 assists in both Serie A and the Champions League during the 2019/20 campaign and his early showings suggest he will be around the same mark this time around.
Zapata may be a striker who is known for his goals but assists are a big part of his game. Like Gomez, he has started the season well in this area with four assists in eight appearances. There were nine last season; a solid return in a season disrupted by injury.
Sky Bet have it at 9/2 that Zapata scores a goal assisted by Gomez, while the reverse is 11/1. With that in mind, the better option is to back both players in the individual assists market with the prices on offer.
Atalanta are a tempting 23/10 for victory here but, even with injuries, Liverpool remain a strong outfit. The better outright options come in taking the double chance in the hosts' favour at 5/6 or taking over 3.5 goals at evens.
Instead, with those prices on offer in the assists market, the best option comes in backing Zapata and Gomez.
Score prediction: Atalanta 2-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Alejandro Gomez to assist 1+ goals in Atalanta v Liverpool at 10/3
Best bet: Duvan Zapata to assist 1+ goals in Atalanta v Liverpool at 9/1
Opta facts
- This is Liverpool’s first ever encounter with Atalanta in any competition.
- Atalanta are set to face their third different English opponent, having previously met Everton in the 2017/18 UEFA Europa League (P2 W2) and Manchester City in the Champions League last season (P2 D1 L1).
- Liverpool have lost all three of their away UEFA Champions League matches in Italy under manager Jürgen Klopp, losing to Roma in May 2018 and Napoli in October 2018 and September 2019.
- Excluding qualifiers, Atalanta have only failed to score in one of their last 19 games in major European competition (0-4 v Dinamo Zagreb last season), while they’ve averaged 2.1 goals per game over the course of this run (40 goals in total).
- Duvan Zapata has been directly involved in six goals in five UEFA Champions League starts for Atalanta (four goals and two assists), while he scored a brace in their 2-2 draw against Ajax on MD2.
Manchester City v Olympiacos
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home 1/5 | Draw 11/2 | Away 12/1
Manchester City have experienced an odd start to the campaign but they are enjoying a seven-game unbeaten run since the shock 5-2 defeat to Leicester. It's almost been a reversal of Pep Guardiola's time at the club; they look beatable in the league but strong in Europe.
They should make it three wins from three as they welcome an Olympiacos side who sit second in the Greek Super League with 13 points from a possible 15. They have only conceded one goal in their five domestic games and a tight game can be expected here, even if the odds suggest otherwise.
Olympiacos' only defeat this season came against Porto last week. It was a 2-0 scoreline to the Portuguese side and that was a bit of a rarity for the visitors. You have to go back to the Tottenham game in the group stage last season, November 2019, for the last time they lost by a margin greater than one goal.
Since then, it's been wins but they are generally beaten when the come up against stronger sides. PAOK were the only team to beat them in the league last season, that was one game, but the Champions League was much different.
They won one of their six group games, that being a 1-0 success over Red Star Belgrade in the final round, while they were knocked out by Wolves at the quarter-final stage of the Europa League. We can expect City to carry on that rough European return of results but it's best to avoid getting carried away with Olympiacos' recent record in mind.
Out of the 32 teams in the group stage, Olympiacos sit 23rd for shots conceded per game on average (ten). City sit bottom with four. It could become a bit of a dull affair with City on the front foot for large parts; a theme that isn't too uncommon at this stage for Guardiola's men.
It's 15/4 that City win with under 2.5 goals in the match but the 6/4 on a home victory with under 3.5 is good enough value and it provides the additional safety net should Olympiacos get on the scoresheet. Don't be surprised if this game is 0-0 heading into the latter stages.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-0 Olympiacos (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals in the match at 6/4
Opta facts
- This is the first ever European meeting between Manchester City and Olympiakos.
- Manchester City’s only previous games against Greek opponents was in the Last 32 of the 2010/11 UEFA Europa League, when they won 3-0 on aggregate against Aris.
- Manchester City winger Ferran Torres is looking to become the third-youngest player in UEFA Champions League history to score in four consecutive appearances (20y 248d), behind only Kylian Mbappé (18y 120d) and Erling Haaland (19y 107d).
- Mathieu Valbuena has been directly involved in 50% of Olympiakos’ shots in the UEFA Champions League this season (11/22), having created seven chances and taken four shots himself.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (02/11/20)
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