The 2020/21 Champions League group stage kicks off on Tuesday and Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for the action.
Recommended bets
1pt Zenit to beat Club Brugge and over 2.5 goals in the match at 6/4
1pt Sevilla to have 12+ total shots v Chelsea at 5/4
1pt PSG (-1 handicap) to beat Manchester United at 8/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Zenit v Club Brugge
- 17:55 BST on BT Sport ESPN
- Match odds: Home 7/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 19/5
This may not be the game that everyone will rush to for their Champions League fix on Tuesday night but it's a battle of the top sides in Russia and Belgium which could well mean goals given the way both have gone so far.
Brugge top the Belgian league after nine games with 22 goals on the charts; Zenit can top that with 24 although they have played two games more.
Brugge have some selection issues with three players missing after testing positive for Covid-19. First-choice goalkeeper Simon Mignolet, centre-back Odilon Kossounou and forward Michael Krmencik will all miss the trip for matchday one.
Zenit were fancied for success anyway but that makes Brugge's task that bit harder. The hosts have hit 18 goals in their five home league games so far; that is considerably more than any other side in Russia's top flight and most have played one more fixture.
The one plus for Brugge is that they have netted 13 goals in their four away league contests. That sets it up to be a game where we should see the net hit plenty of times. With Zenit odds-on for success in 90 minutes, taking a home win with over 2.5 goals in the contest brings the price to a much better 6/4 across the board.
It's quite open in Group F with Dortmund the one likely to finish top. For that spot in second, it could well become a battle for second but Zenit will fancy their chances. It's worth backing them to get started with victory at home.
Score prediction: Zenit 2-1 Club Brugge (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Zenit to win and over 2.5 goals in the match at 6/4
Chelsea v Sevilla
- 20:00 on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home Evens | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/5
Chelsea begin their Champions League campaign following a mixed start to the Premier League season and they face a tough test in a Sevilla side who have experienced plenty of success on the European stage in recent years.
The Spanish club lifted the Europa League title again last season, beating Manchester United and Wolves on their way to the final, and they will be looking for progression in Europe's elite competition. The involvement of Rennes and Krasnodar in Group E suggests that these two clubs will be battling it out for top spot.
The Blues' 3-3 draw with Southampton on Saturday is probably the best result to sum up the Frank Lampard era at Stamford Bridge. A team who have invested heavy in the attack but left the defence as an afterthought; that is holding them back from being serious contenders in any competition.
Sevilla have also endured a tough start in LaLiga but we can't completely disregard their odds of 13/5 for victory here. There's a number of bets that look appealing in favour of the away side but the best route looks to be backing their total shots figure to hit 12 over the 90 minutes.
Sevilla sit third in LaLiga when it comes to average shots per game. The 12.8 posted by them is bettered only by the two main Madrid clubs and they may be left disappointed by the fact that they don't have more than five on their tally after five games.
Chelsea's defence has led to them facing a number of chances per 90 minutes in the Premier League. They may not sit high in the charts but 11.4 is significant enough to hold them back; Manchester City and Liverpool are both on ten and under at this stage.
It's not a fluke for Sevilla to be on a figure this high. They finished fourth in this area last season with 12.9 shots per league game. Chelsea conceded 11.5 shots per 90 in the Champions League; it's a problem they haven't solved and because of that it's one that will not go away.
This isn't to say that Sevilla will run away with it and smash the 20-shot marker but 12 is a more than realistic target for a side who have done that multiple times under Julen Lopetegui. We could worry about them having a more defensive mentality for this game; the 17 attempts against Wolves and 14 against Inter in the Europa League suggests otherwise.
I certainly wouldn't be rushing to take Chelsea at even money given their defensive showings this season; this is a Sevilla side who are well experienced in knockout football. They have recruited well over the summer and have added quality to a side that had success last season.
The double chance in Sevilla's favour comes out with a best price of 5/6 and that appears to be the best outright option in this game. Instead, the best bet can be found in the shots market and backing the visitors to have 12 or more total attempts at an odds-against price.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Sevilla (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Sevilla to have 12+ total shots at 5/4
Opta facts
- This will be the first ever European encounter between Chelsea and Sevilla.
- Chelsea have won just one of their last nine UEFA Champions League matches against Spanish opponents (D5 L3), a 2-1 win at Atlético Madrid in September 2017.
- Sevilla have won each of their last three major UEFA European matches against English teams, beating Manchester United in March 2018 in the Champions League last 16, Wolves in August 2020 in the Europa League quarter-final and Man Utd again also in August 2020 in the Europa League semi-final.
- Chelsea have lost their last two UEFA Champions League matches – the Blues have never lost three games consecutively in major UEFA European competition.
- This is Sevilla’s sixth appearance in the UEFA Champions League – they haven’t lost on MD1 since 2007/08, when they were beaten 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium by Arsenal; they are unbeaten in four MD1 matches since (W2 D2).
PSG v Manchester United
- 20:00 BST on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 4/7 | Draw 16/5 | Away 9/2
PSG are Sporting Life's outright selection for success in the Champions League this season and they can get off to a winning start against a Manchester United side who continue to baffle with mixed results but consistently dull performances.
They were hammered 6-1 at home by Tottenham before the international break but bounced back with a 4-1 win over Newcastle at the weekend. I don't understand Newcastle, a poor side who somehow pick up points, that means we can't read too much into a scoreline that flattered United on the night.
They should come crashing down back to reality against a PSG side who have continued to grow under Thomas Tuchel's guidance. A club that divide opinion but one that does possess quality throughout the ranks on the pitch; they came so close to success last time out and will be eager to correct that throughout the new campaign.
The one element of this PSG side that stood out last season was just how ruthless they were in front of goal. The 25 goals they scored was the second-highest in the competition but that came from an average of 12.2 shots per game; a low count that left them 21st in this area.
PSG do have some issues as Mauro Icardi, Juan Bernat and Thilo Kehrer will all miss the match through injury. They could be joined by Marquinhos, Marco Verratti, Julian Draxler and Danilo Pereira who are all major doubts. Despite that, the sheer quality throughout this squad should be enough to guide them through with little issue.
The hosts are odds-on for success here but there is 8/5 available across the board that they win with a -1 handicap. That's a bet that would have come in for four of PSG's five Ligue 1 wins this season. It's also a bet that would have landed in both of Manchester United's Premier League defeats.
In fact, backing PSG with the -1 handicap would have also won in five of their eight Champions League victories last season. They dominate the French league but can put teams to the sword in Europe too; two of those wins came against Real Madrid and RB Leipzig.
We tend to look at Neymar and Kylian Mbappe as the main parts of this PSG side, and we can't deny just how crucial they are to the French club's chances of success, but their defence has been strong and they've only conceded three across seven league games so far.
They only saw six against across the eleven Champions League games last season too. Keeping this PSG side out is one thing, trying to find a way to get past them is another. That makes the 8/5 on a comfortable home win look an even better bet.
PSG are the favourites to win this group with United behind at 9/4. I wouldn't be willing to take those odds on United with Leipzig alongside them and they should find themselves in the bottom-half of Group H after matchday one.
Score prediction: PSG 3-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: PSG (-1 handicap) to beat Manchester United at 8/5
Opta facts
- The only previous European encounter between Paris SG and Manchester United was in the last 16 stage in the 2018/19 season when the Red Devils reversed a 2-0 first leg deficit to go through on away goals with a 3-1 win in Paris via a 90th minute Marcus Rashford penalty.
- Paris SG have only lost seven of their 53 home UEFA Champions League matches, with no side winning more than once against them. They’ve won their four home matches in the competition since losing 3-1 to Man Utd in March 2019.
- Manchester United haven’t faced a French side in the UEFA Champions League group stage since 2005/06, failing to win either game against Lille (D1 L1). The Red Devils have only won one of their six away group stage games in France (D3 L2), a 2-1 win at Bordeaux in March 2000.
- Paris SG have lost none of their 24 home UEFA Champions League group stage matches since the start of the 2012/13 season (W19 D5). Their last home defeat at this stage was in December 2004 against CSKA Moscow (1-3).
- Manchester United have lost four of their last five UEFA Champions League matches (W1), including each of their last two. The Red Devils have only lost three consecutive European Cup/Champions League games once previously, losing three in a row between December 2004 and March 2005.
Odds correct on 1150 BST (19/10/20)
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