Preview, predictions & latest odds for Tuesday's last 16 clashes in the Champions League...
Recommended bets
1pt Dele Alli 3+ total shots in RB Leipzig v Tottenham at 11/4
1pt Dele Alli to be carded in RB Leipzig v Tottenham at 5/2
0.5pt Hans Hateboer to score anytime in Valencia v Atalanta at 17/2
0.5pt Hans Hateboer to be carded in Valencia v Atalanta at 10/3
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
RB Leipzig v Tottenham (1-0 agg)
- 2000 kick-off on BT Sport 2
Tuesday is a huge match for Tottenham, essentially make or break for their season. After being knocked out of the FA Cup last week, all that would remain after this is aiming for Champions League qualification next season.
Things have not been too rosey at the club in the last seven days, from Eric Dier's altercation with a fan in the stands to a poor display at Burnley and Jose Mourinho essentially throwing Tanguy Ndombele under the bus for his performance. You would not bet on them going through against one of Germany's top sides.
They trail by one goal and travel without a fully fit recognised striker. While they may not necessarily get the result (they are 5/1 to win on the night), there is value in backing some of the players that will be crucial to the club's hopes.
Mourinho, who basically said last week he would go for it at either Burnley or in Leipzig (not both), has gone with Alli as the lead striker in recent games and there is value in backing the England man in some way.
Still billed as an attacking midfielder, he is at a best price of 18/5 to find the back of the net anytime, but the preference is to look at the shots market.
Giovani Lo Celso was their best player in the first leg and the 6/4 on him to get 1+ shots on target does appeal, but the 11/4 on Alli to register 3+ shots stands out more.
This market does not rely on him hitting the target, just three attempts. With Spurs pinning their hopes on him and looking to get back into the game, he is sure to be in the thick of the action.
Alli, who scored the equaliser from the spot at Burnley on Saturday (pictured, above), had three shots in total and in last week's Premier League loss to Wolves he also had three. In their away game at Aston Villa he had five and at home to Norwich in January he registered four. With the onus on him, you would expect him to come close to these figures again.
Failing that, if things are not going Spurs' way then Alli, as the most advanced player, could easily get frustrated.
Since he burst onto the scene in 2015, Alli has not only shown talent, but an aggression and petulance that sees opponents often target him and he can easily get wound up.
He has only received three bookings in total this season, but this game has all the makings for him to get a fourth and the 5/2 on him to be carded could be worth taking for a small play.
Prediction: RB Leipzig 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bets:
Opta stats
- RB Leipzig are set to host Tottenham Hotspur for the first time in any competition, while Spurs are the first English side to visit the Red Bulls in an away competitive match.
- Spurs have only lost one of their five away Champions League games in Germany (W2 D2), although that defeat came earlier this season away at Bayern Munich in the group stage (1-3).
- RB Leipzig are looking to reach the quarter-final of a major European competition for only the second time, reaching that stage in the 2017-18 Europa League before being eliminated by Marseille.
- Spurs have been eliminated from eight of their last 10 major UEFA European knockout ties after losing the first leg, although they overturned a deficit the last time this happened against Ajax in last season’s Champions League semi-final (0-1 first leg, 3-2 second leg).
- Four of RB Leipzig’s last five Champions League goals have been penalties, including each of the last three. Only one team has ever scored more than four penalties in a single Champions League campaign – Barcelona in 2011-12 (five).
- All three of Spurs’ Champions League defeats this season have been against German teams (two v Bayern Munich, one v RB Leipzig) – only one team has ever lost more than three in a single campaign all against teams of the same nation, with Leeds United losing all five of their games against Spanish opponents in 2000-01.
- Spurs manager José Mourinho has won none of his last seven Champions League knockout matches (D4 L3) since leading Chelsea to a 2-0 win over PSG in April 2014. On the two previous occasions his teams have lost the first leg of a knockout tie at home, they have been eliminated (Chelsea v Barcelona in 2005-06, Real Madrid v Barcelona in 2010-11).
- RB Leipzig striker Timo Werner is yet to find the net in six home Champions League appearances, attempting 22 shots without success; by contrast, in away games Werner has scored seven goals from 14 shots. Werner has scored more Champions League goals without scoring at home than any other player in the competition’s history.
- Tottenham boss José Mourinho has lost seven of his nine away Champions League games in Germany (W2), losing more away games there than any other country. Indeed, those seven defeats account for 30% of his away defeats in the Champions League (7/23).
- In the first leg, Leipzig manager Julian Nagelsmann became the youngest manager to manage in a Champions League knockout match (32 years & 211 days). The youngest manager to progress from a knockout tie is Didier Deschamps in 2003-04 with Monaco (35 years & 147 days).
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Valencia v Atalanta (1-4)
- 2000 kick-off on BT Sport 3
Valencia trail by three goals after an entertaining first leg and the second could be just as good with the Spanish side having little choice but to throw the kitchen sink at it.
With this approach in mind, it could leave them open at the back and provide us with an end to end contest. You would expect Valencia to concede too - as their run of just one win in their last seven shows how poor recent displays have been.
In the first leg, Atalanta's Hans Hateboer scored twice. It was his first and second goals of the season and, while he is technically a defender, the 7/1 on him to score here looks worth taking considering how advanced he was playing.
As you can see in the highlights above, number 33 Hateboer was right wing-back, in a five-man defence but he was advanced and provided width, often seen drifting in at the far post.
He came close on a number of occasions to meeting crosses and both of his goals were brilliantly taken, especially the second which was a composed run from just past the halfway line after being put through.
The Dutchman got the better of Valencia's left-hand side and if he is on the same form here then that price looks excellent.
As well as a goal, Hateboer's booking stats also make interesting reading. Not only is does he provide an attacking threat and width, he is also a regular in the book with nine cards this season.
Two of those came in his last two European appearances and, given his league record and the importance of this one, 10/3 away from home looks a decent price as Atalanta look to see this one through and book their place in the quarters.
Prediction: Valencia v Atalanta (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bets:
Opta stats
- Valencia have never faced Atalanta at home in a European match previously – they lost their last home Champions League match against Italian opponents, in September 2018 against Juventus (0-2).
- Atalanta’s 4-1 win over Valencia in the first leg of the tie was only the second time they’d scored four times in a major European competition knockout match, also winning 4-1 against Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Cup round of 32 in 1990-91.
- Only four of the previous 36 teams to lose the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie by three or more goals have then progressed, though two have been Spanish teams - Deportivo de La Coruña in 2003-04 v Milan and Barcelona in 2016-17 v Paris SG.
- In the first leg, Atalanta became only the third team to score four goals in their first ever Champions League knockout match, after Manchester United (4-0 v FC Porto in 1996-97) and opponents Valencia (5-2 v Lazio in 1999-00).
- Valencia are winless in nine Champions League knockout stage matches (D5 L4) and haven’t scored three goals in a knockout game since winning 3-0 against Leeds United in May 2001.
- Should they reach the quarter-final, Atalanta would become the first Champions League debutant to reach that stage since Leicester City in 2016-17 and the first Italian side to do so since Lazio in the 1999-00 campaign.
- Atalanta have only won three of their 17 away major UEFA European games (D5 L9), though they won their last away game against Shakhtar Donetsk and could win consecutive away games for the first time.
- Since scoring with three of their last four shots against Lille in November, Valencia have scored with just four of their last 44 efforts at goal in the Champions League (9.1%).
- Atalanta’s 12 Champions League goals have been scored by 10 different players of nine different nationalities (no Italians have scored yet). Only three teams have ever had players of 10 different nationalities score in one Champions League season; Arsenal in 2009-10, Man Utd in 2010-11 and Borussia Dortmund in 2016-17.
- Atalanta scored with six of their first 29 shots on target in the Champions League this season but have since found the net with six of their last eight, including their last four shots on target in their 4-1 win in the first leg.
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Odds correct as of 1330 GMT on 09/03/20
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