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Free betting tips: Champions League, including Lyon v Man City, Man United v Young Boys
The Champions League continues on Tuesday night with both Manchester clubs in action. Tom Carnduff has three best bets to consider.
Recommended bets
1pt Pavel Kaderabek to score anytime in Hoffenheim v Shakhtar Donetsk at 8/1
2pts Carlos Soler to be shown a card in Juventus v Valencia at 13/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Lyon v Manchester City
Group F, Groupama Stadium, 2000 GMT, BT Sport 3
Manchester City can wrap up top spot in Group F with victory here, and we should expect to see a different performance in comparison to the side that lost at the Etihad on Matchday 1.
It's little surprise to see Pep Guardiola's men comfortably winning games in the Premier League. They sit two points clear at the top with a goal difference of +35 after just 13 games, scoring 19 in their last four in all competitions.
One player who has been contributing in the goals department is David Silva, with the attacking midfielder hitting the net in his last four games for City.
His tally sits at eight in 16 games in all competitions, including three in the Champions League. That form has seen him nearly hit last season's total of 10 already despite the season far from the halfway point.
A best price of 27/10 is available on him to score, which does look generous considering the visitors' 2/5 price for three points alongside his recent track record.
Sky Bet also have him at 25/1 to score from outside the area, which he has already done this season. Close range free-kicks provide the best opportunity for this, and if the situation were to present itself, you'd back Silva to capitalise.
There is value in the stats betting as well, with City expected to get plenty of shots at the Lyon goal. They had 22 in that defeat to Lyon, a combined 39 in their two fixtures against Shakhtar and 15 in the 2-1 victory over Hoffenheim.
My eye was caught by the 5/1 available on David Silva, Leroy Sane, Memphis Depay & Nabil Fekir all to have 1+ shots on target each. Silva, Depay and Fekir managed that in their last meeting, with Sane on the bench.
Both sides have attacking power, and given the fact that 8/15 is the biggest price on each player to have 1+ shots on target, the price does seem a tad too big.
Best bet: David Silva, Leroy Sane, Memphis Depay & Nabil Fekir all to have 1+ shots on target each at 5/1
Opta facts
- Lyon won their only previous meeting with Man City, picking up a 2-1 victory in Manchester on matchday one.
- This will be just Man City’s third away European game in France – they drew 2-2 with PSG in April 2016, before losing 1-3 against Monaco in March 2017 (both Champions League).
- Lyon have only lost one of their 10 home European games against English sides (W3 D6), with that defeat coming against Arsenal in February 2001 (0-1).
- Lyon’s last three Champions League home games have all finished as draws – the French side came from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Shakhtar in October, before letting a 2-0 lead slip themselves against Hoffenheim last time out.
- Lyon are unbeaten in their four group stage games so far this season (W1 D3) – the last time they remained unbeaten in their first five was in 2008-09.
- Manchester City are the highest scorers in this season’s Champions League, netting 12 goals in their four games so far.
- Man City have won both of their away Champions League games so far – only once have they won all three on the road in a single group stage (2013-14).
- If Lyon win, it will be the first time Man City manager Pep Guardiola has been beaten twice by the same club in the same Champions League group stage.
- Manchester City’s David Silva has scored in each of his last three Champions League games. Indeed, his three goals in this season’s competition is already his best return in a single Champions League campaign.
- David Silva has scored in each of his last three Champions League appearances for Man City – the only player to score in four consecutively for the club in the competition is Raheem Sterling (September-November 2017).
Manchester United v Young Boys
Group H, Old Trafford, 2000 GMT, BT Sport 2
Manchester United have done little to inspire in recent Premier League outings, although they will expect to be fairly comfortable in a win over Young Boys.
A late comeback ensured that Jose Mourinho's side picked up all three points away at Juventus, their toughest game in this group, although they still sit in second having been beaten by the Serie A side at home.
The draw at home to Valencia means that they are without a win at home in Europe this season, but that run should come to an end on Tuesday night.
Swiss outfit Young Boys are yet to win a game in the group stage of this competition, conceding exactly three goals in every defeat. They do have a point though following a 1-1 draw when they hosted Valencia in October.
Paul Pogba played a key part when these two sides last met with two goals and an assist. The midfielder is 9/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power to find the net at anytime again here, which looks great value when you consider how this game should go.
The 25-year-old has five goals and four assists in 16 games so far this season, grabbing his Champions League goals against this opponent.
He is also United's designated penalty taker so there will be a real chance to get onto the scoresheet if the opportunity is presented to him.
Some firms are offering even money on the midfielder, which shows how he is fancied to be amongst the goals for the hosts.
Best bet: Paul Pogba to score anytime at 9/5
Opta facts
- Manchester United won the reverse fixture against Young Boys 3-0, the first ever meeting between the two sides.
- Young Boys are winless in all three of their previous away games against English sides (0-4 vs Spurs in 2010, 2-2 vs Liverpool in 2012 and 1-3 vs Everton in 2015).
- Manchester United are winless in their last three Champions League home games (D1 L2) – in all European competitions, they’ve never gone four without a win at Old Trafford.
- Man Utd have failed to score in two consecutive home games in European competition for just the third time in their history – they’ve never gone three without a goal. Their current goalless run stands at 186 minutes, since Romelu Lukaku scored vs Sevilla in March.
- Young Boys are winless in all four of their Champions League games (D1 L3), conceding exactly three goals in each defeat.
- Excluding qualifiers, Young Boys are winless in nine away games in European competition (D4 L5), since a 3-1 win against Slovan Bratislava in the 2014-15 Europa League.
- Manchester United have lost more Champions League group stage games on matchday five than they have on any other in the competition (8).
- Young Boys have the lowest shot conversion rate in the Champions League this season, converting just two of their 53 total shots (4%).
- Man Utd’s Romelu Lukaku has scored five goals in his three previous appearances against Young Boys, with all five coming in his two games against them for Everton in the 2014-15 Europa League.
- Paul Pogba had a hand in all three of Man Utd’s goals in the reverse fixture against Young Boys, scoring twice and assisting another.
1899 Hoffenheim v Shakhtar Donetsk
Group F, Rhein-Neckar Arena, 2000 GMT, BT Sport Extra 4
It's now entering 'must-win' territory for Hoffenheim if they are to progress to the knockout stages, although they can capitalise on Lyon's visit of Manchester City with a home tie against Shakhtar.
Julian Naglesmann's side have three draws and one defeat so far, and they were unlucky against City with a late winner denying them another point.
They're starting to hit good form in the Bundesliga though and that can help them pick up their first Champions League victory of the season here.
The hosts have moved up to sixth in the standings, winning their last two games at the Rhein-Necker Arena, also sitting second in the Bundesliga form charts with 13 points gained in their last five games.
Hoffenheim's eight goals show that they have no issue finding the net in this competition, and that's why there is value in backing goalscorers.
The 8/1 available on Pavel Kaderabek to score anytime caught my eye, with the wide midfielder having direct involvement in seven goals this season.
That includes a goal in the Champions League, with his 92nd minute shot salvaging a point in a 2-2 draw away at Lyon.
1899 should be on the front foot here and someone like Kaderabek can capitalise. He has also managed to average a shot in goal in every Champions League game, highlighting how he is getting in positions to score.
The fact that Shakhtar have also conceded 13 in this group so far underlines the defensive issues they are having.
Best bet: Pavel Kaderabek to score anytime at 8/1
Opta facts
- The only previous meeting between Hoffenheim and Shakhtar Donetsk ended 2-2 in the Ukraine on matchday one.
- Shakhtar have lost all three of their away Champions League games vs German sides, by an aggregate score of 0-14.
- Hoffenheim have won only one of their six home games in all European competition (D2 L3), beating Istanbul Basaksehir in last season’s Europa League.
- Hoffenheim have both scored and conceded in all 12 of their games played in all European competition.
- No side has scored more 90th minute goals than Hoffenheim in the Champions League this season (2), while the German side have also scored the earliest goal in the competition this season (43 seconds vs Man City).
- Shakhtar are winless in their four Champions League games so far this season – only once (in 2011-12) have they failed to win any of their first five in a single campaign.
- Shakhtar haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 14 Champions League games, conceding a total of 30 goals in that run.
- Excluding own goals, Brazilian players have scored more Champions League goals than players from any other nation (860). Only Barcelona (83) have contributed a higher number of these than Shakhtar (78).
- Andrej Kramaric has been directly involved in 50% of Hoffenheim’s eight Champions League goals so far (3 goals, 1 assist).
- Junior Moraes has had a hand in three of Shakhtar’s four Champions League goals this season (2 goals, 1 assist).
Juventus v Valencia
Group H, Allianz Stadium, 2000 GMT, BT Sport Extra 2
Juventus will be another side able to secure their spot in the round of 16 with victory at home to Valencia.
It won't be straightforward though, with the Spanish side sitting third in the group with one win and two draws.
Juve though, bounced back from that surprise defeat to Manchester United with 2-0 wins over AC Milan and Spal, extending their lead at the top of Serie A to eight points.
The Italian giants also had a perfect defensive record before that defeat in their last European encounter, and Valencia will do little to threaten that in a game where they should leave empty-handed.
The referee appointment should signal cards in this encounter, with Scotland's William Collum in charge. He's shown 79 yellow cards and four reds in 22 games this season, with ten of those yellows coming in his two games in this competition.
Carlos Soler is a player who has enjoyed midfield battles this season, being the most fouled player and the player who has committed the most fouls for Valencia in La Liga.
He has six yellow cards on his tally, including two in this competition, showing how his playing style is catching the attention of the officials.
I'd expect this to be a game where Valencia are on the back foot and could commit those challenges that draw cards. Given the referee appointment, Soler should work his way into the book.
Best bet: Carlos Soler to be shown a card at 13/5
Opta facts
- The only previous meeting between Juventus and Valencia came on matchday one – the Italians winning 2-0 in Spain thanks to two Miralem Pjanic penalties.
- This will be Valencia’s first away game in Italy in any European competition since December 2009, when they won 2-1 vs Genoa in the Europa League.
- Juventus have lost just three of their 32 previous home games against Spanish opponents in all European competition (W19 D10), though one of these was in their most recent such game (0-3 vs Real Madrid in April).
- Juventus lost their last home match against Man Utd – they’ve never lost consecutive home games in all European competition in their history.
- Juventus have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six Champions League group stage games, with the exception being their 1-2 loss against Man Utd last time out.
- None of Valencia’s last seven away Champions League games have seen more than two goals (W2 D3 L2), with the Spanish side scoring four and conceding five in that time.
- Juventus’ Cristiano Ronaldo received his first ever Champions League red card in the reverse fixture against Valencia in September.
- Juventus’ Cristiano Ronaldo has scored against 32 different opponents in the Champions League. If he scores against Valencia, he’ll equal Raul’s competition record of having scored against 33 different teams.
- Carlos Soler has been directly involved in 75% of Valencia’s four Champions League goals this season (1 goal, 2 assists).
- Juventus’ Paulo Dybala has scored five goals in his last five Champions League games – as many has he’d scored in his first 24 appearances in the competition.
Odds correct at 1610 GMT (26/11/18)