Matchday 4 of the Champions League could see some clubs knocked out of Europe. Tom Carnduff picks out five best bets for Tuesday.
Recommended bets
1pt Thomas Delaney to be shown a card in Atletico Madrid v Borussia Dortmund at 11/4
1pt Dan-Axel Zagadou to be shown a card in Atletico Madrid v Borussia Dortmund at 9/2
1pt Borussia Dortmund to beat Atletico Madrid at 17/4
1pt Virgil van Dijk to have 1+ shots on target in Red Star Belgrade v Liverpool at 15/8
1pt Luuk de Jong to score anytime in Tottenham v PSV at 13/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Red Star Belgrade v Liverpool
Group C, Rajko Mitić Stadium, 1755 BST, BT Sport 3
Liverpool could move five points clear of third with victory over Red Star Belgrade in Serbia.
The Reds may have lost their only away game in Europe so far this season (1-0 v Napoli), but they should be too strong for a Belgrade outfit who have conceded ten goals in their last two Champions League games.
They also beat Tuesday's opponents in their last encounter, with Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino all on target in a convincing 4-0 win.
There is value in backing other starters having opportunities on goal though, and Liverpool's 16 corners in their last two games should suggest that their centre-backs will be involved in the attacks.
Virgil van Dijk has been a star since his January switch from Southampton, and his aerial dominance means he wins the majority of his battles with the opposition.
The defender's ten shots on goal in all competitions this season, including two in their three Champions League games, highlights the threat he carries from corners and how he is capable of testing the Belgrade goalkeeper.
At a price of 15/8, there is value in backing van Dijk to have an effort on target, particularly in a game where they should be on top.
Belgrade are on the back foot in all of their European games. Their 39% possession in the game at Anfield being the most they've seen of the ball in their three games so far.
Factor in Belgrade's 25 corners against in those three games and it's clear to see how any Liverpool player will be eyeing up the possibility of adding to their tally on Tuesday night.
Best bet: Virgil van Dijk to have 1+ shots on target at 15/8
Opta facts
- Crvena Zvezda have won two of their three games against Liverpool in European competition, however did lose the most recent meeting (0-4 at Anfield).
- This will be Liverpool’s first away game against Crvena Zvezda in European competition since October 1973, when they lost 2-1 in the first leg of a Last 16 tie in the European Cup/Champions League.
- Crvena Zvezda are winless in their last five games in European competition (D3 L2), losing the last two in a row while conceding a combined 10 goals (1-6 v Paris Saint-Germain and 0-4 v Liverpool).
- Liverpool have only lost one of their last 11 group stage games in the Champions League (W5 D5), scoring 33 goals in total during this run (an average of 3 per game).
- Crvena Zvezda have suffered just one defeat in their last 14 home games in European competition (W7 D6), with their previous home game in the current Champions League campaign finishing 0-0 (v Napoli).
- Liverpool have scored 48 goals in the Champions League since the start of last season (16 games), the most of any team in the competition.
- Crvena Zvezda have conceded just five goals in their last 14 home games in European competition, keeping nine clean sheets in this run.
- Since the start of last season, Liverpool striker Roberto Firmino has been involved in 19 goals in the Champions League (12 goals and seven assists); the most of any player in the competition.
- Crvena Zvezda have faced conceded the most goals (10), faced the most shots (75) and most shots on target (36) of any team in the Champions League this season.
- Sadio Mané has scored 11 goals in his last 12 appearances for Liverpool in the Champions League, with the most recent of those coming against Crvena Zvezda in a 4-0 win for the Reds.
Tottenham v PSV
Group B, Wembley Stadium, 2000 BST, BT Sport 2
These two sides could be eliminated from the Champions League with a draw and an Inter victory at Barcelona, so both will be eager for three points to get their campaign on-track.
With just a single point, Tottenham will need a strong performance at home if they are to progress. The issue is that their two defeats at Wembley this season puts them 13th in the home Premier League standings.
PSV's extraordinary run of eleven consecutive league victories means that they will be tough for any team to beat, and one defeat in their last eleven away in all competitions shows they are a strong outfit on the road.
One player who has been thriving in PSV's current form is Luuk de Jong, with the forward scoring eight in as many games.
The 28-year-old has a tally of ten goals and four assists in 16 games this season which puts him top of the Eredivisie goalscoring charts. He's a player in full confidence and that will put him in a good place here.
A best price of 13/4 represents great value on him to score anytime against Tottenham. Mauricio Pochettino's side have managed just one clean sheet this season and that came against a poor Cardiff side.
Best bet: Luuk de Jong to score anytime at 13/4
Opta facts
- Spurs last hosted PSV in a European match in March 2008 at White Hart Lane in the UEFA Cup – they lost 0-1 to a goal from Jefferson Farfan.
- PSV’s 1-0 away win over Spurs in the 2007-08 UEFA Cup is their last away win in England – they’ve lost to Liverpool (1-3 in October 2008) and drawn with Manchester United (0-0 in November 2015) since then.
- Spurs are winless in five Champions League matches (D2 L3) – their longest ever winless run in major European competition.
- PSV have won none of their last 11 Champions League matches (D5 L6) since winning 2-1 against CSKA Moscow in December 2015.
- Spurs striker Harry Kane has the best goals per game ratio of any player in Champions League history to play at least 10 matches in the competition (0.85 – 11 goals in 13 matches).
- Only Crvena Zvedva (75) have faced more shots in this season’s Champions League than PSV (69), with the Dutch side facing at least 20 in each of their three matches.
- Three of the five English sides to achieve just one point or fewer from their opening three Champions League group stage games went on to qualify for the next round – Newcastle United in 2002-03, Arsenal in 2003-04 and Liverpool in 2007-08.
- PSV are the first Dutch club side to appear at Wembley since June 1971, when Ajax won 2-0 against Panathinaikos in that season’s European Cup final.
- None of Spurs’ 10 home Champions League group stage matches have ended as draws – they’ve won seven and lost three.
- Should PSV win, Spurs could become the second English team that the Dutch side have beaten more once in away European games – they’ve also beaten Leeds United twice.
Atletico Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
Group A, Wanda Metropolitano, 2000 BST, BT Sport Extra 2
Two sides who should progress from Group A meet in their final encounter at the Wanda Metropolitano as Atletico welcome Dortmund.
The hosts are odds-on for victory here, but there is huge value in backing a Dortmund win around the 17/4 mark considering their terrific form so far.
Lucien Favre's side have won all three Champions League games, including a 4-0 hammering of Atletico on Matchday 3, and sit top of the Bundesliga standings by four points.
They also have the second-best domestic away record, only bettered by Bayern, and their 30 goals scored is the highest of any German top division side by some distance.
Eight of their last nine games have also seen over 2.5 goals, and despite Atletico conceding just one in their five home LaLiga games this season, the Dortmund attack could provide goals and continue that trend.
The referee for this one is Luis Godinho and he can be considered as one of Portugal's stricter officials. He has shown 37 yellows and three reds in just six domestic games during the 2018/19 campaign and has recently been on international duty with the UEFA European under-17 qualifiers and under-20 Elite League.
In his solo European club game this season, Godinho somehow found a way to show three yellow cards in a 7-0 contest, all three coming after the 78th minute when NK Rudar Velenje were already 6-0 up in Europa League qualifying.
That could spell trouble for Thomas Delaney, with the Dortmund midfielder leading the way in fouls committed for his club in both the Champions League and the Bundesliga.
He also has two yellow cards on his tally so far, including one in their narrow 1-0 victory over Wolfsburg. The 27-year-old came off injured in that 4-0 win over Atletico, but he is back and should start in his regular position here.
Best bets:
Opta facts
- Atlético Madrid have won just one of their five games against Borussia Dortmund in European competition (D1 L3), including defeats in three of the most recent four meetings.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their previous two away games against Atlético Madrid in European competition (W1 D1), with their victory coming in the European Cup/Champions League back in October 1996 (1-0).
- Atlético Madrid haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their five games against Borussia Dortmund in European competition, with half of their total goals conceded against them (8) coming in the last meeting (4-0 at Signal Iduna Park).
- Borussia Dortmund have won their last three games in the Champions League, while they last won four in a row in the competition in November 2014 (a run of five under Jürgen Klopp).
- Atlético Madrid have only lost back-to-back group stage games in the Champions League on one previous occasion (in October 2009 under Abel Resino).
- Borussia Dortmund are one of just two teams yet to concede a goal in the Champions League this season (also Juventus), while only once previously have they gone four games without conceding in the competition (in October 2014).
- Since making his Champions League debut for Atlético Madrid in September 2014, Antoine Griezmann has scored 19 goals in the competition; 11 more than the Atlético player with the second-most (8 - Saúl Ñíguez).
- Excluding own goals, Borussia Dortmund have had more different goalscorers than any other team in the Champions League this season (7 players).
- Atlético Madrid have scored seven home goals in the Champions League since moving to the Wanda Metropolitano, of which Antoine Griezmann has been directly involved in 86% of them (six - four goals and two assists).
- Borussia Dortmund defender Achraf Hakimi has made three assists in the Champions League this season (all against Atlético Madrid); a joint-high in the competition, alongside Barcelona’s Jordi Alba.
Odds correct at 1610 BST (05/11/18)
