George Pitts has a 40/1 tip for Man City v Liverpool in the Champions League, while Paul Higham is confident Roma v Barcelona will be a low-scoring affair.
Champions League recommended bets
1pt Raheem Sterling to score first and Manchester City to win either 2-0 or 3-1 at 40/1
2pts Barcelona to win & under 2.5 goals at 4/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Manchester City v Liverpool (1945 BST, BT Sport 2)
A crazy first-leg tie has set us up for an interesting contest when Man City host Liverpool at the Etihad.
Very few would have predicted Liverpool’s 3-0 rout at Anfield last week, where City were well and truly stunned. It saw their odds to win the competition drift as far as 16/1 at the time of writing.
Mo Salah, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Sadio Mane all netted inside the opening 31 minutes as the world of football watched on in disbelief.
If that game did something to the Citizens’ confidence, surrendering a two-goal lead to lose 3-2 against Manchester United on Saturday was the last thing they needed, especially as it meant delaying their Premier League celebrations and missing the opportunity to humiliate their rivals.
While Liverpool would clearly have taken this lead when the draw was made, such a situation can be a dangerous one to take into the second leg. We all saw how PSG capitulated after leading Barcelona 4-0 in the last-16 first leg last season and if any team is capable of producing a similar performance, it is City. You might even say that if any team is capable of blowing such an advantage, it would be Liverpool.
It will be interesting to see Jurgen Klopp’s approach, especially in the opening half hour. The Merseysiders have improved defensively in recent months, showing they have more than just a gung-ho approach in their locker, and may rely on thay here.
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City need to go all out though and that could play to Klopp’s counter-attacking style. While the opening goal is of course important (City are 4/9 to score it, Liverpool 9/4), the second would be enormous in the event that the hosts have bagged the first. An away goal would surely be enough for Liverpool, but if City get as far as 2-0, a place in the last four would be tantalisingly close.
City can be backed at 9/2 to qualify but a better bet could lie with the full-time result and both teams to score market. You can side with Man City and BTTS at just above evens and there's plenty of mileage in that price.
Sergio Aguero meanwhile was a big miss in the first leg and he returned from injury at the weekend – you can back the Argentine to score first at 3/1, to score two or more at 4/1 or in a score-and-win double at 6/5, all of which come under consideration.
However, given the circumstances it may pay to take a chance to small stakes at a bigger price with Raheem Sterling fancied to get one over his old side, giving his new employers an opportunity. Playing some speculative scorecasts based around the England man offers an interest with little downside.
The nature of this tie means there should be plenty of entertainment and goals, likely at both ends. Whatever happens, City should be good enough to make a game of it and are fancied to win on the night.
Prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 10/1) (George Pitts)
Best Bet: Raheem Sterling to score first and Manchester City to win either 2-0 or 3-1 at 40/1
Alternative: Sergio Aguero to score and Man City to win (on the night) at 6/5
Roma v Barcelona (1945 BST, BT Sport 3)
Barcelona have one foot in the semi-finals after a commanding 4-1 victory at Camp Nou last week, with Edin Dzeko’s goal just doing enough to keep the tie ever so slightly alive.
Any hope Roma have is in the fact they are unbeaten at Stadio Olimpico and have four clean sheets to their name – while Barcelona have not travelled so well in the Champions League.
Ernesto Valverde’s men have won just two of their last eight on the road in the competition with their last three resulting in draws, which means 10/3 for a stalemate is worth considering.
This version of Barcelona are a much better defensive unit than the preceding free-flowing attacking versions, so they’ll have few concerns with going to Roma to simply close the tie out.
Saying that, with the likes of Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi as dangerous as ever they’re always likely to get an early goal that would totally kill off the Italians.
Valverde managed to rest the likes of Andres Iniesta, Samuel Umtiti and Sergio Busquets for the weekend’s LaLiga win over Leganes, where Messi scored yet another hat-trick.
Fresh legs and superior firepower lead me to think that this could be a comfortable night’s work for the Spanish league leaders despite Roma's previously excellent home record, and we'll take them to kill off the tie early and be content to coast to victory in a low-scoring encounter.
Prediction: Roma 0-2 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 9/1) (Paul Higham)
Best Bet: Barcelona to win & under 2.5 goals at 4/1
Alternative: Barcelona to win to nil at 5/2
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Odds correct as of 1705 BST 09/04/2018.
