Friday night football sees rock bottom Ipswich welcome high-flying West Brom, although Tom Carnduff fancies the hosts to get something.
Recommended bets
1pt Gwion Edwards to score anytime at 5/1
1pt Hal Robson-Kanu to be shown a card at 13/2
1pt Jay Rodriguez to be shown a card at 13/2
1pt Gwion Edwards and Freddie Sears 2+ shots on target each at 60/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Ipswich v West Brom (Portman Road, 1945 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event)
Despite a managerial change that has seen Paul Lambert brought into the club, Ipswich remain rooted to the bottom of the Sky Bet Championship table with just one win to their name.
High-flying West Brom come into this one on the back of a 4-1 hammering of Leeds, and while they should be full of confidence, their record away from home should give Ipswich a slight bit of hope.
The Baggies are odds-on here, but Ipswich provide good value at 9/4 in the Draw No Bet market given the opposition's struggles on the road.
While West Brom don't find themselves high up in terms of the disciplinary charts this season, it is interesting that they seem to accumulate cards in away games.
Three of their last four away have seen them shown at least three yellows cards, with their away defeat at Wigan last month drawing five yellows and a red.
Keith Stroud may not be the strictest referee in the division, but he has demonstrated on multiple occasions that he isn't afraid to show more than one card when it is required.
I wouldn't expect this to be a game with a high card count, but the value is still there in backing individual players to be shown a card given the fact that there should be at least a couple.
Jay Rodriguez can be found at 13/2 to catch the referee's attention, which looks generous given how he has committed more fouls than any other member of the West Brom squad, a total of 27 in 17 Championship games.
The 29-year-old has two yellows on his tally this season, both of which came in games away from home.
Hal Robson-Kanu also looks good value at the same price. He sits fourth in the foul count with 15, and picked up his second yellow card of the season in that 4-1 win last time out.
Robson-Kanu has shown that he can still be carded in games where they in control. Both cards came in games where they scored at least four goals.
The concern for this one would be whether Darren Moore elects to stick with the former Welsh international or bring Dwight Gayle back into the starting XI.
It is worth pointing out that he still did pick up a card in an appearance from the bench against Bristol City, so he can still pick up cards late into games.
I do fancy the draw here and would back Ipswich to find the net at least once in the 90 minutes. West Brom have kept just one clean sheet in the league this season, with the opposition scoring in every away game.
I'm a fan of Ipswich's Gwion Edwards. He's adapted well to the step-up in division given the position his side find themselves in, with four goals and two assists on his tally.
It's impressive when you factor in he hit the same amount in League One for Peterborough last season, although the Tractor Boys are playing to his attacking strengths by putting his as a winger as opposed to a wide midfield role.
He also provides decent value in the stats betting. My eye was caught by the 60/1 available on Edwards and Freddie Sears to have 2+ shots on target each.
It is a big ask, of course, that's why it is 60/1. However, Ipswich have had a number of efforts on goal in recent weeks with both Edwards and Sears seeing two shots on goal in that draw with Reading.
West Brom are a side who do concede shots away from home too. Hull managed 13 in their 1-0 win, while Wigan saw 11 and Sheffield Wednesday had 14.
It's a big price, but in my opinion it's worth a gamble with a small stake.
The temptation may be to back an away win with a glance of the standings. I'd be hesitant to do so though with that away record, and it'll be intriguing to see if those away troubles damage their promotion hopes in the long run.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-1 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bets:
- Gwion Edwards to score anytime at 5/1
- Hal Robson-Kanu to be shown a card at 13/2
- Jay Rodriguez to be shown a card at 13/2
- Gwion Edwards and Freddie Sears 2+ shots on target each at 60/1
Opta facts
- Ipswich have won just one of their previous nine league meetings with West Brom (D2 L6), however this will be the first such clash since January 2010.
- West Brom haven’t kept a clean sheet at Portman Road in league competition since November 1980, conceding on each of their last 19 trips there.
- Ipswich are looking for their first league victory at Portmand Road since April (1-0 v Barnsley), having failed to win any of their 10 such games since (D7 L3).
- West Brom have scored 37 goals in the Championship this term; the most by a team after 17 games of a second tier campaign since Southampton in 2011-12 (40).
- Ipswich striker Freddie Sears has scored in each of his last two league appearances, while he has never previously netted in three consecutive Championship games.
- West Brom have scored a league-high 28 goals in the second half of Championship games this season, while Ipswich have scored a league-low four goals in this period.
Odds correct as of 1220 GMT on 22/11/18
