Football betting tips: Super Sunday
2pts 28+ total shots at 23/20 (Unibet)
1pt Liverpool clean sheet at 17/5 (William Hill)
1pt Virgil van Dijk to score anytime at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
Has there been a more unpredictable team in Premier League history than Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur?
Heading into this weekend, only Chelsea (37) have scored more than their 36 goals and, rather surprisingly, only Liverpool (13) and Arsenal (15) have conceded fewer than their 19.
Spurs’ goal difference of +17 is the third best in the division, yet they're 10th.
That's in part a reflection of the tight nature of this season’s top flight, but in the main due to Tottenham’s consistent inconsistency.
In between throwing away two-goal leads to lose against Brighton and Chelsea they won 4-0 at Manchester City long before it was commonplace.
Fraser Forster's meltdown against Manchester United threatened to become the new nadir of Spursyness before Heung-min Son scored directly from a corner to complete the latest chapter in Postecoglou's 18 months of chaos.
From unplayable to unfathomable.
Are you not entertained?
"Are you not entertained? I know the studio is probably going in a meltdown over my lack of tactics" 😅
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) December 19, 2024
Ange Postecoglou reacts after a Carabao Cup classic against Man United 🎙️ pic.twitter.com/cnR8aOXHw7
What are the best bets?
Infuriating as Spurs may be, it's hard to disagree with their Australian manager; it's rarely boring.
Over 2.5 goals is 3/10, over 3.5 is 3/4 and both teams to score is 4/11 for the visit of leaders Liverpool, whose successive league draws have provided much-needed respite from the relentless monotony of Arne Slot wins.
His record remains a remarkable won 20, drawn three, lost one since replacing Jurgen Klopp; it's highly likely he collects his 21st victory on Sunday.
However, Arsenal were 6/4 to win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Chelsea were even money, so the 7/10 about Liverpool is possibly best avoided.
In normal circumstances, there is value to be had in going against the grain when the market has reacted so extremely. The difficulty with Spurs is that they are not normal. Not even close.
It's best then, when our money's at stake, to look at things from a LIVERPOOL perspective, with the 17/5 about them keeping a CLEAN SHEET advised.
The Reds have shown an extra level of defensive discipline against 'stronger' opponents this season, with six clean sheets in their past 13 matches coming against Manchester City, Aston Villa and in all four Champions League ties.
Additionally, Alisson Becker will play his third game since returning from injury.
With arguably the best keeper in the world starting in goal, Liverpool have kept seven clean sheets in 10 matches this season, conceding just four times.
With Caoimhin Kelleher, still a wonderful stand-in, it's six clean sheets in 12 matches, conceding 12 times.
Spurs have scored one goal or fewer on nine occasions this season, so it doesn't feel outlandish backing the best defence in the league to keep them out.
Postecoglou's side are certainly at a disadvantage too, playing less than three days on from a lung-busting encounter with Manchester United.
Take a shot
Despite an opening selection that opposes goals, it would still be an enormous surprise were this match not to be a thrilling end-to-end contest, making the 23/20 about 28+ TOTAL SHOTS eminently backable.
Tottenham's home matches against higher quality opposition have followed a fairly consistent pattern this season, continuing in Thursday's 4-3 win over United, a match that saw 29 shots in total.
There were 30 in the 4-3 home defeat by Chelsea, 28 in a 4-1 victory over Aston Villa and a staggering 42 in the 2-2 draw with Roma.
Only Spurs' 1-0 home defeat by Arsenal (22) - a match with the added complexity of being a hard-fought derby - bucks the trend.
Spurs' set-piece struggles
Jonny Evans' stoppage-time header on Thursday may have been nothing more than a consolation goal, but it was a continuation of a theme.
Since their 4-0 win at Manchester City on November 23, when Spurs still fielded a second-choice centre-back pairing, a succession of defensive injuries has seen Postecoglou forced to use variations of a patchwork back four, in front of a veteran goalkeeper who has barely played in two years.
It should come as no real shock that a team whose terrible record for conceding from set-pieces should then struggle further.
In the subsequent seven matches Tottenham’s only clean sheet came against a hapless Southampton, but it has been keeping opponents out at corners that has been a particular issue, with four different central defenders finding the net.
VIRGIL VAN DIJK, with nine goals for club and country across this season and last, simply must be backed TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/1.
Spurs look likely to be forced to continue with 18-year-old midfielder Archie Gray in central defence alongside the talented but inexperienced Radu Dragusin.
Marking Van Dijk is unlikely to be a job for which they'll be desperately volunteering.
Team news
Destiny Udogie is the only Tottenham player given any chance of returning to fitness in time for Sunday, with that likely to be the only change to the XI that beat Manchester United on Thursday.
Ben Davies, Cristian Romero, Vicario, Micky van de Ven, Mikey Moore, Richarlison and Wilson Odobert are all injured, while Rodrigo Bentancur is partway through a lengthy ban.
Liverpool are expected to revert to their full strength team after making plenty of changes for their midweek Carabao Cup win at Southampton.
Andy Robertson is back from suspension but Ibrahima Konate and Conor Bradley remain out injured.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham: Forster; Porro, Gray, Dragusin, Udogie; Sarr, Bissouma; Kulusevski, Maddison, Son; Solanke.
Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Szoboszlai, Diaz; Jota.
Match facts
- Tottenham won this exact fixture 2-1 last season, last winning consecutive home league games against Liverpool between 2008 and 2012 (a run of five).
- Liverpool have lost just two of their last 23 Premier League games against Tottenham (W15 D6) and have scored at least once in each of their last 17 against Spurs.
- Tottenham won this exact fixture 2-1 last season thanks to a 90th minute Joel Matip own goal. Indeed, this fixture has seen more 90th minute winning goals than any other in Premier League history (6).
- Tottenham have lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table, with both exceptions coming away against Manchester City (2-2 in August 2019, 3-2 in February 2022). They’ve lost all five home games in this run.
- Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 23 Premier League home games, a 4-0 win against Everton earlier this season. They’re winless in their last three at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (D1 L2), last having a longer run without a home win in November/December 2013 (4).
- Spurs have scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes of games than any other side in the Premier League this season (9), with five of those coming in their last two games.
- Having conceded just three goals in their first eight Premier League games this season, Liverpool have now conceded 10 in their last seven. Their last two games have been drawn 3-3 with Newcastle and 2-2 with Fulham, with the Reds last drawing three straight league games in the same season back in October 2015.
- Victory for Liverpool will see them top of the Premier League table at Christmas for the first time since 2020-21. However, the Reds have only won the title in one of the last seven top-flight campaigns in which they’ve been top at Christmas, doing so in 2019-20.
- Son Heung-min’s two assists against Southampton last time out took his total in the Premier League to 68 – the joint-most of any Tottenham player in the competition’s history (level with Darren Anderton).
- Mohamed Salah has been involved in 22 of Liverpool’s 31 Premier League goals this season (71%), by far the highest share of any player for a side so far this term. He has 13 goals and nine assists, and could become the first player in Premier League history to reach double figures for both before Christmas in a single campaign.
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (20/12/24)
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