Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Under 3.5 goals at 10/11 (General)
BuildABet @ 11/1
- Chelsea to win
- Under 4.5 goals
- Dejan Kulusevski to be carded
Pressure is mounting for Ange Postecoglou after Thursday’s 1-0 defeat at Bournemouth.
The attack minded manager insists he usually wins trophies in his second season but his side are already out of the title race.
Tottenham currently sit in 10th and are as close to Southampton in 20th as they are to leaders Liverpool (15 points).
The loss on the South Coast was their seventh of the season and third across their last six as they have taken just four points from the last 12 on offer domestically from games with the Cherries, Fulham, Ipswich and Manchester City.
Chelsea have only lost four times all season, their last was in October, and since then they have won five of their seven games.
They are rightful favourites on Sunday.
What are the best bets?
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/3 with Sky Bet which implies a 75% chance of at least three goals being scored in North London.
I’m not so sure though, not at those prices.
Enzo Maresca said he would trade the Blues' chaos for control and control certainly looks like it has been coached into this side.
Excluding a couple of crazy games at the beginning of the season (6-2 Wolves and 4-2 Brighton), the Blues have been measured.
There has to be an asterisk around the 5-1 win over Southampton in midweek as well. For one, it’s Southampton, and they only had 10 men.
Aside from those three results, five of the Blues' other 11 games have seen under 2.5 goals click and all 11 have seen UNDER 3.5 GOALS which is the bet at 10/11.
Team news
Tottenham have a shortage in central defence.
Ben Davies became the latest in the treatment room joining Micky van de Ven (thigh) and Christian Romero (toe). The latter may make Sunday’s game but if not young midfielder Archie Gray may be forced to fill in defence.
Spurs are also without Rodrigo Bentancur, Guglielmo Vicario, Richarlison, Mikey Moore and Wilson Odobert.
Chelsea will be without Wesley Fofana and Reece James. Maresca should opt to bring Pedro Neto and Nicolas Jackson back into the starting line up, replacing Christopher Nkunku and Joao Felix.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham: Forster; Porro, Romero, Dragusin, Udogie; Kulusevski, Bissouma, Maddison; Johnson, Solanke, Son
Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Disasi, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Madueke, Palmer, Neto; Jackson
Match facts
- Tottenham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Chelsea (D2 L8), picking up a 2-0 home win in February 2023.
- After a run of just two wins in 13 Premier League away games against Tottenham between 2006 and 2018 (D5 L6), Chelsea have now won four of their last five visits to Spurs (L1).
- Chelsea have won 35 Premier League games and scored 116 Premier League goals against Tottenham, more than they have vs any other opponent. It’s also the most goals Spurs have conceded against a side, while they’ve only lost more against Manchester United (39).
- Tottenham Hotspur were unbeaten in their first four Premier League London derbies under Ange Postecoglou (W2 D2) but have lost seven of their last 13 (W4 D2). Five of their six London derby wins under the Australian have been at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, however.
- Chelsea have won five of their seven games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in all competitions (D1 L1), the most wins any visiting side has picked up at the ground since Spurs moved there in 2019.
- Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 22 Premier League home games (4-0 v Everton this season), a run which started with a 4-1 loss against Chelsea last November. Indeed, since the start of November 2023 no side currently in England’s top four tiers have recorded fewer home league shutouts than Spurs.
- Tottenham’s Ange Postecoglou has lost each of his two league games against Chelsea but has only lost his first three top-flight league meetings with three clubs: Adelaide City (1996-97) and Sydney United (1996-97) when he was South Melbourne manager and also against FC Tokyo (2018-19) when he was at Yokohama F. Marinos.
- Nicolas Jackson has scored four goals in his two Premier League games for Chelsea against Tottenham, netting a hat-trick in this exact fixture last season.
- Tottenham’s Brennan Johnson has scored three goals across his last five home appearances in the Premier League, more than across his previous 24 outings at home in the competition for Spurs and Nottingham Forest (2 goals).
- Among teams he has played 1,000+ minutes against, Tottenham forward Son Heung-Min’s worst minutes per goal rate in the Premier League is against Chelsea, netting just twice in 16 appearances and 1,061 minutes of action versus the Blues (531 mins per goal).
Odds correct at 1530 GMT on 05/12/24
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