Football betting tips: North London derby
2pts Arsenal to win at 7/5 (Unibet)
0.5pt Gabriel to score anytime at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pt William Saliba to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 13/1
- Arsenal to win
- Bukayo Saka to score anytime
- Kai Havertz to be shown a card
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Home 15/8 | Draw 13/5 | Away 5/4
Mikel Arteta looked pretty smug in his pre-match press conference on Friday morning having just signed a three-year contract extension, gobbling up questions about Arsenal's so called injury crisis as if it were his daily elevenses and he'd skipped breakfast.
Maybe he has a really good pokerface, maybe it's that he looks sickeningly good for a man in his early 40s, or maybe, just maybe, he's pretty confident that he has an XI available to him that is plenty good enough to win the north London derby on Sunday.
The bookies certainly think so, with Arsenal generally 5/4 favourites to win at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and I'm inclined to agree.
What are the best bets?
Without digging into things a little further, it's easy to get lulled in and believe Spurs are a large price for victory at 2/1.
This fixture most recently took place in April, with Tottenham 10/3 and Arsenal 8/11.
I'm happy to back ARSENAL TO WIN at an inflated price, a 7/5 that is presumably a result of an overreaction in the market to their injuries and suspensions.
The only confirmed absentee for the Gunners from their last match is the suspended Declan Rice. Martin Odegaard looks likely to miss out but faces a late fitness test, while Mikel Merino wasn't available against Brighton and remains on the sidelines.
Over the past two years Arteta has built a squad with high quality depth, meaning it is likely Thomas Partey and Jorginho will start in central midfield, with Jurrien Timber the most likely starter at left-back if Riccardo Calafiori misses out.
In pursuit of that extra depth Raheem Sterling was signed on loan on transfer deadline day and could make his debut, a fact that strengthens, rather than weakens Arsenal from a fortnight ago; overlooked in the rush to overhype the crisis.
Tottenham and Ange Postecoglou are not without their own issues.
Dominic Solanke, signed for £65m from Bournemouth in the summer, has missed their last two matches with an ankle injury, Richarlison is out until October and Micky van de Ven is doubtful with a knee injury after missing both the defeat at Newcastle and the international break.
The team who adorn black shirts for Arsenal for the very first time in a north London derby will be more than good enough to beat a Tottenham team who either side of their 4-0 win over a pitiful Everton have struggled to make spells of dominance count in terms of meaningful opportunities, drawing at Leicester and losing to Newcastle.
Arsenal have not lost since April 14 and were only denied a ninth-straight league win by Rice's early red card against Brighton, a huge factor in providing Albion with the momentum for an equaliser.
Set-piece mismatch
Another factor in the Gunners' favour is their ability at set-pieces and Tottenham's distinct inability to defend at them.
Arsenal scored the most Premier League goals from set-plays last term (22) while Spurs were one of the worst at stopping them, allowing 16. Only Sheffield United, Luton Town and Nottingham Forest conceded more.
For that reason splitting our stake and backing both GABRIEL and WILLIAM SALIBA to score anytime at 12/1 and 16/1 respectively. The duo scored six league goals between them last season, with the former contributing the lion's share (4).
- CLICK HERE to back Gabriel to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back William Saliba to score anytime with Sky Bet
Derbies are often tight, hard-fought matches. It would be no surprise if a set-piece goal decides this one.
Team news
Tottenham striker Dominic Solanke hopes to have recovered from an ankle injury in time to play but team-mate Richarlison is definitely out. Mickey van de Van is also touch and go.
Declan Rice is suspended and Arsenal look likely to be without captain Martin Odegaard and Riccardo Calafiori too. Raheem Sterling is expected to make his debut, more than likely from the bench.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Udogie; Sarr, Bentancur; Kulusevski, Maddison, Son; Solanke.
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Havertz, Partey, Jorginho; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli.
Match facts
- Tottenham have lost five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal (W1 D1), more than they had in their previous 16 against their north London rivals (W6 D6 L4).
- Arsenal have won their last two Premier League away games against Tottenham, as many as in their previous 17 such visits (D6 L9). They last won three consecutive away north London derbies between January 1987 and September 1988.
- Arsenal against Tottenham is the fixture to have seen the most penalties awarded (26) and scored (24) in Premier League history. Indeed, of all Premier League fixtures to have seen at least 100 goals scored, the north London derby has seen the highest percentage netted from the spot (12.9% - 24/186).
- Arsenal vs Tottenham has seen both teams score more often than any other fixture in Premier League history (43), while it’s also the fixture to see the team score first fail to win more often than any other (29 – D19 L10).
- Tottenham have conceded an own goal in each of their last three Premier League meetings with Arsenal (Hugo Lloris in January 2023, Cristian Romero in September 2023 and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg in April 2024). No team has ever put through their own net in four consecutive meetings with an opponent in the competition before.
- Just one of Tottenham’s last 49 Premier League home games has been drawn (2-2 v Man Utd in April 2023), and none of the last 22 (W15 L7). Of all grounds in Premier League history, the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has seen the lowest percentage of draws (9% - 9/101), while it’s hosted more games without ever having a 0-0 than any other (101).
- Arsenal have won nine of their last 10 Premier League away games (D1), keeping eight clean sheets in that run. They’ve won each of their last five on the road, last having a longer such winning run between March and September 2013 (8).
- Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has scored eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions; in the history of the fixture, only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have netted more than the Korean.
- Bukayo Saka scored home and away goals against Tottenham in the Premier League last season. The only Arsenal players to score in 3+ consecutive north London derby appearances in the competition are Emmanuel Adebayor (5 between 2006 and 2008) and Robert Pirès (4 between 2002 and 2004).
- Raheem Sterling could make his Arsenal debut in this match – he would be the first player to make his Gunners bow in a north London derby since Isaiah Rankin in December 1997. Having scored against Spurs at White Hart Lane (with Liverpool) and Wembley Stadium (with Man City), he could become the third player to net a Premier League goal against them at all three of their home grounds, after Jamie Vardy and Aleksandar Mitrovic.
Odds correct at 1540 BST (13/09/24)
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