Jake Pearson looks ahead to Tottenham's home fixture with Fulham on Wednesday, analysing the match and providing his best bets.
Football betting tips: Tottenham v Fulham
1pt Tottenham to be leading at half time at 6/5
0.5pts Tottenham/Draw (HT/FT) at 18/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
PLEASE NOTE: THIS GAME WAS CALLED OFF ON WEDNESDAY
Tottenham v Fulham
- 18:00 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video
- Match Odds: Home 11/20 | Draw 3/1 | Away 5/1
Romain Saiss’ late equaliser on Sunday means Tottenham are now winless in four Premier League matches, and they really could do with regaining the winning thread against a Fulham side who are going through their own barren spell in terms of victories, a 0-0 draw with Southampton on Boxing Day meaning Scott Parker’s team are now without a win in five.
This is a difficult game to assess from an outright betting point of view, Spurs are worthy favourites, but Fulham's performances really have picked up of late. The bookmakers seem to have priced the win-draw-win market pretty accurately, so it's probably best to look elsewhere for value.
Things looked pretty dour for Fulham when they lost five of their opening six matches, but the recent showings of Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and in particular Ademola Lookman, have given fans of the west London club reasons to be optimistic.
Fulham are winless in five, yes, but they are also unbeaten in four, picking up draws against Liverpool, Brighton, Newcastle and Southampton.
Scott Parker missed the Southampton game as someone in his household tested positive for Covid-19, but he will have been reasonably pleased with his team’s performance. The Cottagers dominated for large spells, creating more chances than the visitors.
Tottenham have been pretty partial to a draw themselves this season, and there could be something in this game for Fulham, but a fast start for Spurs could also make their task all the more difficult - and that is what we’re banking on.
Spurs' counterattacking approach had the country purring when they pulled off measured victories against Manchester City and Arsenal, thrashed Manchester United, and held an in-form Chelsea 0-0 at Stamford Bridge. But their lack of expansiveness has now become something of a bugbear for fans, particularly against the Premier League’s lower-rung teams.
Jose Mourinho himself expressed his displeasure at his side’s lack of second-half ambition against Wolves, sitting deeper and deeper until the Old Gold bagged an inevitable equaliser.
Tottenham’s form in the second half of matches has been poor all season, losing seven of their 15 second-half duels, but they have been incredibly strong in the first half of matches. No team would have amassed more points than Spurs had matches been 45 minutes long.
Mourinho’s team have been leading in eight of their 15 games when the half-time whistle was blown, trailing on just one occasion.
Only Liverpool have scored more first-half goals than Tottenham, while no team can boast a better first-half defensive record, particularly at home, where they have conceded just once in the opening period.
It is interesting then, given Spurs' propensity to perform much better in first than second halves, that they are as short as 1/2 to win over 90 minutes, but odds against to lead at the break.
This becomes even more interesting when analysing the market for first-half Tottenham goals.
Pinnacle – whose prices are about as accurate as you are likely to get – are currently offering just shorter than 8/11 for Spurs to score over 0.5 goals in the first half, and, given their defensive aptitude in the first 45, particularly at home, the 6/5 available on Tottenham to be leading at the break begins to look a little too big.
That is where most of our money will be heading, but, given just how poor Tottenham have been in the latter stages of matches this season, a half time/full time play could be worth a small-stakes bet, and Tottenham/Draw looks the way to go at 18/1.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Tottenham v Fulham best bets
Tottenham to be leading at half time at 6/5
Tottenham/Draw (HT/FT) at 18/1
Opta facts
- Tottenham have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games against Fulham, losing the other 0-1 at White Hart Lane in March 2013.
- Since a 2-1 home win in November 2008, Fulham haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 13 Premier League meetings with Tottenham (W1 D2 L10), netting seven goals in total in this run.
- Tottenham are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League London derbies (W3 D4) since losing 1-2 at Chelsea in February.
- Tottenham have lost their final league game in just one of the last 11 calendar years (W7 D3), with that defeat coming at home against promoted side Wolves in 2018 (1-3).
- Spurs lost their last home league game 0-2 against Leicester – they’ve not lost consecutive home league games since January 2019, while manager José Mourinho has never lost back-to-back home league games in his entire managerial career.
- Fulham have earned four points from their last three Premier League away games (W1 D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 13 on the road in the competition (W1 D1 L11).
Odds correct at 11:00 GMT 29/12/20
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