Jake Pearson has profited by backing Tottenham in recent weeks - and he sees no reason not to continue that trend as reinvigorated Spurs welcome Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League on Thursday night.
Following Tottenham’s defeat by West Ham last month, Jose Mourinho hinted that winning the Europa League may be Spurs' best route into next season’s Champions League.
A recent upturn in form, however, means Spurs are now just five points behind fourth-placed Chelsea with a game in hand.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
TV channel: BT Sport ESPN
Spurs look to have turned a corner of late, winning each of their past four matches, and it is no coincidence that their recent good form has coincided with a return to the starting line-up for Gareth Bale.
Bale has been involved in nine goals in his last six matches, scoring six and assisting three, and the Welshman looks to be getting fitter and sharper by the match.
Bale’s impact has been visually obvious, but Spurs’ numbers have also shot through the roof of late, Mourinho’s side averaging 2xGF per match in Bale’s past six appearances, as opposed to 1.68xGF in their previous matches this season.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Despite the fact that Tottenham now look to be serious contenders for the top four, it is unlikely to mean they will take their foot off the gas in Europe, with Mourinho’s propensity for winning tournaments known to all, particularly at Manchester United and Porto, for whom he won this particular trophy.
Tottenham will likely have had mixed feelings about drawing Dinamo Zagreb in the last 16 of the Europa League. Undoubtedly, they have avoided some tougher opponents, but also perhaps a couple of easier ones as well.
Zagreb are unbeaten in the Europa League this season, finishing top of Group K with four wins and two draws, and they won both legs of their round of 32 tie with Krasnodar (winning 4-2 on aggregate).
Domestically, Zagreb are top of the Croatian First Division, two points ahead of their nearest pursuers with a game in hand, but this undoubtedly represents their biggest challenge of the season.
Tottenham are short-priced favourites to win this match, but they deserve to be, and there is a case to be made for them actually still representing value at their current price of 2/5.
However, we are not in the business of tipping up selections at those sort of prices, so it could be worth exploring just how many goals Spurs are likely to win by.
Tottenham have scored two or more goals in all but one of their eight Europa League matches this season, scoring three or more in six of those fixtures, and four or more on three occasions.
Mourinho’s men have averaged 2.875 goals per match in the competition this season, so it would stand to reason that they’d find the net at least once against Zagreb.
In fact, each match Tottenham have won in the Europa League this season has been by two or more goals, so the 11/10 available about the TOTTENHAM -1 HANDICAP makes plenty of appeal.
Tottenham v Dinamo Zagreb best bets and score prediction
- Tottenham -1 handicap at 11/10 (General)
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-0 Dinamo Zagreb (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (09/03/21)
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