Title hopefuls only six weeks ago, Tottenham and Chelsea have been reduced to scrabbling for Champions League spots. Tom Carnduff fancies the Blues in Thursday's London derby.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals in the match at 15/8
1pt Chelsea to have 18+ total shots at 11/2
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Tottenham v Chelsea
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 5/2 | Draw 12/5 | Away 11/10
Tottenham's early-season hopes of involvement in the title race are gone. Sunday's defeat to Brighton highlighted how far they've fallen behind the rest, a dull performance with little to inspire, and they now sit outside the top four, level on 33 points with Chelsea.
Improvement has come in the short term for the Blues who have had to adapt to a change in style under Thomas Tuchel's guidance. The first two games allowed players to get minutes, with four points in return, but Tuchel should go for his strongest possible line-up here.
He could stick with some of those who beat Burnley but it's mostly a guess at this stage. That will be the case until we start to see a pattern emerge over the next few weeks. What we do know is that Chelsea are stacked with talent throughout and a top-heavy side means quality players will have to miss out.
It's a contrast to Spurs' situation with Harry Kane set for another week on the sidelines. Gareth Bale failed to step up when called upon but Carlos Vinicius at least had a positive second half at Brighton. They are a struggling side currently, though, after back-to-back defeats and Chelsea will hold confidence.
Jose Mourinho's management will come into question again as his team don't look like they will last the distance and the battle will now be about making the top-six. In defeats to Brighton and Liverpool, Spurs posted a combined xG figure of 0.55.
Chelsea had a much better 1.35 against Burnley and won comfortably in the end as they held off a bright Clarets start to the game. That game also brought 19 shots in their favour, an improvement on the 14 they had against Wolves. With the players in this squad, they should be leading the way when it comes to chances to score.
This flat Spurs side conceded 16 shots to Brighton and 14 in their home loss to Liverpool. It's a concern considering Fulham had 15 in their trip to North London while Leeds hit 18. Leicester, in their game just before Christmas, had 17 against Mourinho's men. Even Sheffield United had 15 in the 3-1 Tottenham win at Bramall Lane.
Tottenham's average shots conceded per game is currently at 13.5, the fifth-highest in the Premier League, but recent home games have gone above that line. At home, the average moves up to 13.7, that putting them third in this particular area.
Sky Bet offer 11/2 on Chelsea having 18 or more total shots here, with 15+ on offer at 7/4. Both are good value, but it's worth going for the higher price considering the contrasting form of the two teams heading into this game. It should be a Chelsea win, and a game where they see plenty of efforts on goal.
Rather than take Chelsea's 11/10 price, going for an away win with under 3.5 goals in the game comes out at 15/8 which is the other best bet in this game. Those Chelsea shots can be from anywhere so it doesn't necessarily mean we'll see a high-scoring game. The under 3.5 goals allows for Tottenham grabbing one and the result still being an away win.
Score prediction: Tottenham 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Tottenham v Chelsea best bets
Opta facts
- Tottenham have lost two of their past three home league games against Chelsea (W1), more than they had in their previous 11 (W5 D5 L1). They haven’t lost consecutive home league games against the Blues since a run of three between April 2004-August 2005.
- Chelsea are unbeaten in their last four Premier League meetings with Spurs (W3 D1), keeping a clean sheet in three of these games.
- Despite being the only side still unbeaten in Premier League London derbies this season, Spurs have won just one of their five such matches so far this term (D4).
- Last time out, Thomas Tuchel became the first Chelsea manager to keep a clean sheet in each of his first two Premier League games in charge since Rafael Benitez in November 2012. The last Chelsea manager to do so in his first three in the competition was José Mourinho in August 2004.
- Tottenham Hotspur lost their last home Premier League game versus Liverpool (1-3) – they haven’t lost consecutive home games since January 2019, while manager José Mourinho has never lost consecutive home games in the competition.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (03/02/21)
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