Tottenham can secure a top-four spot with victory, although Tom Carnduff thinks Bournemouth can capitalise with their attention elsewhere.
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2pts Joshua King 2+ Shots On Target at 4/1
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Bournemouth v Tottenham
- Vitality Stadium, 1230 BST, Sky Sports Main Event
A victory for Tottenham here will secure Champions League football once again next season, although they will likely get it regardless considering the recent efforts of the chasing pack.
While Spurs have lost two of their last three in the league, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United have all failed to win over the same period which has seen them fall behind.
Despite five (yes, five) consecutive away league defeats for Tottenham, they still boast the third-best away record in the Premier League. While it would usually be a concern, they could still carry some confidence in the fact that Bournemouth have failed to win in their last five in front of their own supporters.
Spurs' attention will undoubtedly be on their trip to Amsterdam after this game with Mauricio Pochettino's side looking to overturn a 1-0 deficit against Ajax in their Champions League semi-final.
That will give Bournemouth a chance. The away side may be tempted to keep Son Heung-Min out of the side so he is fresh for midweek, while centre-back Jan Vertonghen will miss the game with a head injury.
Fernando Llorente is likely to lead the line, with potential involvement for Vincent Janssen too. It'll be interesting to see which team they opt to play while top-four isn't secure, ultimately though you know their attentions will fully be on their current exploits in Europe.
For the hosts, they'll be hoping that the attacking duo of Callum Wilson and Joshua King can fire them to victory, with the latter being the one to watch when it comes to the stats market.
King leads the way for shots taken in this Bournemouth side and has eleven goals to his name, a decent return from 33 Premier League appearances.
He's also posted a total of nine shots in their last three games and I'm intrigued by the 4/1 on offer with Sky Bet than King has two or more shots on target in this one.
Considering his tally this season, it feels like he is due a goal given the fact that it is now five without one. He had a quiet game in their recent home encounter against Fulham so you imagine he'll be looking to put that right here.
Given Spurs' Champions League involvement, I'd avoid backing them to win this game at an odds-on price. Instead, the value in terms of outright markets may be in the even money available on Bournemouth/Draw.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Joshua King 2+ Shots On Target at 4/1
Opta facts
- Bournemouth have lost six of their seven Premier League meetings with Spurs (D1), netting just two goals in those matches.
- Tottenham have won two of their three Premier League away games against Bournemouth, winning 5-1 in 2015-16 and 4-1 last term. The other match finished 0-0.
- Tottenham average 3.1 goals-per-game in the Premier League against Bournemouth (22 goals in seven games), their best such record against any side in the competition.
- Bournemouth are winless in five Premier League home games (D2 L3), losing the last two in a row. They last lost three consecutively at the Vitality Stadium in April 2016.
- Bournemouth have never lost their last home Premier League game of the season, drawing one and winning twice. The last time they lost their final home game in a league campaign was in 2010-11 in League One (1-2 vs Rochdale).
- Until the end of January, Tottenham had won more away games (11), more away points (33) and scored more away goals (30) than any other Premier League side this season. Since then, they’re one of just two sides not to earn a single point on the road along with Huddersfield (L5).
- Tottenham have lost 12 Premier League games this season, last losing more in a single campaign in 2008-09 (15). Only two teams have ever lost more than 12 Premier League games and still finished in the top four – Chelsea in 1997-98 (15) and Everton in 2004-05 (13).
- Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has scored five goals in his last four Premier League games against Bournemouth – against no side has he scored more in the competition (also five vs Watford).
- Christian Eriksen has either scored or assisted a goal in six of Tottenham’s seven previous Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (3 goals, 4 assists). The only game in which he didn’t ended 0-0 in October 2016.
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has been directly involved in 10 goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting four.
Odds correct as of 1555 BST on 02/05/19
