Tom Carnduff's TV tips: Football best bets and predictions for Premier League, League One, National League & Bundesliga
Football betting tips: TV games
0.75pt Patrick Mainka to score anytime in Darmstadt vs Heidenheim (18:30) at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Already advised:
1.5pts Tottenham over 4.5 corners vs Arsenal (14:00) at 6/5 (General)
1pt Chris Conn-Clarke to score anytime in Bromley vs Altrincham (16:00) at 15/8 (bet365)
1pt Nottingham Forest over 3.5 corners vs Manchester City (16:30) at 7/5 (General)
Darmstadt vs Heidenheim
- Kick-off time: 18:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 23/10 | Draw 11/4 | Away 21/20
I'm rounding off the column in Germany, and the Bundesliga clash between Darmstadt and Heidenheim with neither having anything to play for.
Darmstadt's relegation could be confirmed this weekend – they may already be down by the time this game kicks off – as they won't make up the ten-point gap between themselves and safety at this stage.
Heidenheim sit comfortably in 10th, an outcome they will be absolutely delighted with following promotion last season.
I'm looking at this game as I gambled on a big-priced goalscorer in the previous meeting which delivered. He was 11/1 that day, make the 14s on PATRICK MAINKA TO SCORE ANYTIME well worth backing.
That may be the only game he's scored in this season but I have no issue backing him again here given the likely set-piece mismatch. Heidenheim are strong at attacking free-kicks and corners; Darmstadt struggle to defend them.
Mainka is a threat in the air and a tough one for opposition defenders to contain. He also had three shots for his two goals against Sunday's opponents back in December.
While he does see the majority of his chances coming in games at home, the value remains on the centre-back grabbing his third of the campaign here so we'll back him to modest stakes to round off a bumper TV weekend.
Football betting tips: Saturday TV games
Already advised:
1pt Ebou Adams to score anytime in Derby vs Carlisle (12:30) at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
0.75pt e.w. Danny Collinge to score first in Barnet vs Solihull Moors (17:30) at 28/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
1pt Ollie Watkins 2+ shots on target in Aston Villa vs Chelsea (20:00) at 6/4 (General)
This is the first of a regular weekly column which puts focus on those televised fixtures across the course of the weekend.
That is pretty much the only rule: as long as it's on TV, you could find it here. It's not simply a case of exclusively covering the big games either – we'll be going across the continent and your TV guide to find selections that catch the eye.
Four leagues are in focus on debut because I simply couldn't ignore a huge north London derby taking place on Sunday, but outside of the Premier League, there's so much still to play for.
The promotion race in Sky Bet League One is yet to be decided, while four teams are battling to make it beyond the play-off semi-finals in the National League.
Seven games are included in total - feel free to get in touch with me @TomCarnduff with any thoughts. So, let's begin...
Derby vs Carlisle
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 1/5 | Draw 11/2 | Away 11/1
Derby need a single point on the final day of the season to secure their return to the Sky Bet Championship.
A home game in front of the TV cameras against a side long relegated and 16 points adrift of safety – what could possibly go wrong?
Paul Warne's men are 1/5 to win and 1/40 to get at least the draw they require. While tempting to wonder 'what if', we're talking about a match-up where one side has nearly triple the points of their opponents.
As for a bet, siding with midfielder EBOU ADAMS TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals at odds of 7/1.
He scored the only goal of the game in the recent home win against Blackpool, and while naturally a defensive-minded player, he has the freedom to contribute in attack.
Ten of his 16 appearances for the Rams following his January switch have returned at least one shot, with a huge total of four in their most recent outing at Cambridge. That is the second time he's hit this figure.
Derby aren't huge shot takers in comparison with the other teams at the top but this should be a one-sided contest with the hosts on the front foot throughout. Adams looks excellent value to help them get the job done.
Barnet vs Solihull Moors
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Home 8/15 | Draw 10/3 | Away 4/1
Don't waste your time on a Premier League clash between teams safe from relegation, treat yourself to a National League play-off semi-final pitting two sides who could bully their way through to Wembley.
Solihull got the job done against Halifax in midweek – a 4-2 victory after racing into a 3-0 lead – but Barnet have been a constant threat at the top end of the table. That, of course, has to factor in Chesterfield's hilarious dominance of the division.
Not only is this a game of huge importance, but Barnet have Jordan Cropper at right-back, and this boy can throw a ball. His throw-ins are a genuine threat and can provide game-winning moments – go back and watch Grimsby's 21/22 play-off winning campaign (OK, I appreciate this is possibly asking too much) and you'll see for yourself.
So it's good news for us, the cherished viewer, but it's also been good news for DANNY COLLINGE, and taking an each-way play on him TO SCORE FIRST at 28/1 is certainly appealing.
He's a centre-back but has nine goals on his tally this season – that includes one in each of their final two games of the regular season campaign.
Danny Collinge back amongst the goals ✨#BarnetFC🐝 pic.twitter.com/UxVeHr4T4I
— Barnet FC 🐝 (@BarnetFC) April 16, 2024
We've seen the same sort of goal multiple times. With the initial reaction to a throw-in or a cross coming in the centre of the box, Collinge makes runs towards the back post, able to react to any flick-ons to convert from close range.
He sees a good quantity of chances too considering his position on the pitch. Across the National League campaign, he's averaged 0.9 shots per game.
This is well worth backing at the price.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 11/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 21/10
Tottenham may hold two games in hand over Aston Villa but Saturday night's home game with Chelsea is a great opportunity for Villa to apply further pressure on their top-four rivals.
Unai Emery's side are closing in on the Champions League next season – they are 1/4 to secure that top-four finish heading into this game.
Chelsea's embarrassing 5-0 defeat at Arsenal has left them in a battle just to end the campaign in the top half and they should leave Villa Park empty-handed.
OLLIE WATKINS to have 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET is 6/4 with multiple bookmakers and that's marginally preferable to backing Villa at a shade of odds-against.
The forward has taken at least two shots (not necessarily on target) in 88% of his Premier League appearances this season, with a shot on target and a goal when these sides last met.
Watkins is averaging 1.4 shots on target per game this season, with the figure increasing slightly to 1.5 in home games.
With Chelsea seeing an average of 16.1 shots conceded per away league game, and Villa taking 14.9 at home, we can expect Emery's side, and particularly Watkins, to create opportunities on Saturday night.
BuildABet @ 12/1
Both teams to score in both halves
Ollie Watkins to score anytime
Cole Palmer to score anytime
SUNDAY
Tottenham vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 10/3 | Draw 3/1 | Away 8/11
Spurs have their own battle to finish in the top four, but they'd love nothing more than to derail Arsenal's bid for the Premier League title.
It's still in the hands of Manchester City and anything less than victory for the red side of north London could be disastrous for their hopes of dethroning Pep Guardiola's side.
Spurs have been good at home, winning 12 of 16 in front of their own supporters, while they have secured draws away at Arsenal and City. They also thrashed Villa 4-0.
The odds still favour Arsenal with 7/10 available on an away win but it's too short to be backing. Tottenham, for all of their issues, have won eight of their last nine home league matches.
With an intense atmosphere expected, siding with TOTTENHAM OVER 4.5 CORNERS at odds-against is much the better bet.
Corner betting is about the game and the game state itself and both favour the possibility of the home side hitting a marker they've reached on multiple occasions this season.
It's 2/1 that one of the Spurs corners comes in the first 10 minutes (bet365), which also appeals as a fast start will be expected from the hosts, but there's also a real possibility they are behind and chasing the game at some stage.
That usually leads to plenty of corners and they can clear what looks like a low bar.
Bromley vs Altrincham
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Home 23/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 2/1
Like Saturday, the scheduling of the National League play-off fixtures makes this a more appealing watch than the Premier League offering.
Altrincham outperformed their pre-season odds significantly by finishing in the top seven – our National League expert Lewis Tomlinson tipped them a 12/1 to do just that – and they are a real threat to go the distance.
But Bromley are strong too. They finished four points ahead of Sunday's opponents after 46 games and enjoyed a very strong home record – they were beaten just four times in 23 outings.
While Altrincham are the outsiders, it was a surprise to see a price as big as 15/8 available on CHRIS CONN-CLARKE TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Conn-Clarke will be an EFL player next season, whether or not Altrincham make it through. He should have a host of clubs chasing him when the transfer window opens.
Alty level! Of course it's @ClarkeConn 🤷#TheVanarama | #NLTV | @altrinchamfc pic.twitter.com/Znsf0fbFxt
— The National League (@TheVanaramaNL) January 16, 2024
The midfielder has 22 goals alongside a further six assists on his tally and provides a threat from a number of situations.
He has previous with penalties too but Regan Linney has since taken those responsibilities. However, he may well get a spot kick if the striker isn't on the pitch.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 9/1 | Draw 9/2 | Away 2/7
While there is a one-off shootout for a spot in the Promotion Final in the National League, Sunday's second Premier League game is significant at both ends of the table.
The title remains in the hands of Manchester City, while Forest are battling to avoid the drop. The less said about that statement following the defeat to Everton the better.
I'm willing to gamble on the 7/5 available for NOTTINGHAM FOREST OVER 3.5 CORNERS, even in a game City will expect to dominate.
Luton took six in their home league game against City, while backing the hosts for four or more been a winner in three of their last four on the road in all competitions.
Forest have been contributing in this area anyway, taking at least four in five of their last seven at home – that includes ten against Wolves in the most recent.
There's also a strong possibility of Forest trailing throughout and four seems an achievable target for a side with pace on the break and everything to play for.
BuildABet @ 23/1
Both teams to score
Murillo to be carded
Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded
Odds correct at 1445 BST (26/04/24)
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