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Tom Carnduff's tips: Goalscorer value on opening Sky Bet EFL weekend
Football betting tips: Sky Bet EFL
Saturday
1pt Jordan Shipley to score anytime in Stevenage vs Shrewsbury (17:30) at 9/1 (General)
The second edition of the new season column has some actual games of football to focus on - last week's delivered a few outright picks that caught my eye.
What sort of bets will you be finding in here across the next few months? I'm not entirely sure to be honest. It'll change on a regular basis due to a variety of reasons. Hopefully, they all represent decent enough value regardless of what happens.
I love the early weeks of the season. Uncertainty often delivers bigger prices than usual and that is particularly true in the goalscorer markets - pre-season gives a good indication of potential position changes.
So this is what you'll find this time around. Games where a player is worth backing to strike based on what we've seen across the past few weeks.
Four are discussed in total, with all three league's, and kick-off times, across the EFL on Saturday covered. And, all four games can be watched on Sky Sports.
Stevenage vs Shrewsbury
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 3/4 | Draw 9/4 | Away 10/3
I won't spend too much time talking about this game because I don't think many will be going to it in the Sky Sports+ selection.
When scanning through the markets, my eye was caught by the 9/1 on JORDAN SHIPLEY TO SCORE ANYTIME given his role in the Shrewsbury side.
Salop have been opting largely to go with a 4-2-3-1 under Paul Hurst so far, with Shipley playing more centrally behind the striker.
It's either there or he's out in his more natural role on the left. Shipley scored three following Hurst's return last season - that being the second-most of any player within the squad.
His 26 shots was also second to Daniel Udoh - the striker at the time who has since departed for Wycombe. A lot of his efforts do come from distance but he has demonstrated the ability to strike.
In a contest between two teams expected to be battling at the wrong end of the table, the appeal comes in siding with a big price on a goalscorer.
Already advised
1pt Ryan Giles to score anytime in Hull vs Bristol City (12:30) at 12/1 (General)
1pt Pascal Struijk to score anytime in Leeds vs Portsmouth (12:30) at 8/1 (bet365)
1pt Joe Tomlinson to score anytime in MK Dons vs Bradford (15:00) at 11/2 (General)
Leeds vs Portsmouth
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 19/5 | Away 7/1
Daniel Farke's Leeds side look to bounce back from their disappointing defeat in the play-off final last season with promotion success this time around.
They are clear favourites for the title, and a home tie against newly-promoted Portsmouth sees them unsurprisingly a short price to secure all three points.
Mateo Joseph at 6/4 is a solid goalscorer bet considering he's likely to be the starting striker in this one, but I'm intrigued enough to gamble on the 8/1 for PASCAL STRUIJK TO SCORE ANYTIME.
I do think Leeds were a solid enough set-piece side last season despite the lack of goals coming from them - they threatened enough and created an average of 0.28 xG per game from set-pieces.
So this was on my radar anyway, and then my colleague George - check out the videos he makes for us on TikTok and his own personal Hinge profile - went to the final pre-season friendly against Valencia and pointed out how good they were from corners.
This featured in the latest edition of the Notebook column so read more about it there, but both Struijk, defensive partner Joe Rodon and substitute Max Wöber all had chances to strike.
Expect Leeds to see plenty of corners in this contest given the expected outcome and their style of play. That will give the defender opportunities to score.
Leeds go LEVEL 🟡🔵
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) December 26, 2023
Struijk scores from the penalty spot 💥 pic.twitter.com/5bKGHoyOuu
Not only that but Struijk also has history as their penalty taker, a particular point to consider now that Crysencio Summerville is gone. Mateo Joseph and Wilfried Gnonto were on the pitch when he struck against Preston last season.
Some bookmakers have gone as short as 7/2 (!) on this pick, with a variety on offer across the market. I wouldn't personally be going near it if it's that short. At a stretch, 5/1 and 11/2 are fine.
Hull vs Bristol City
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 11/5 | Away 2/1
Hull are an interesting side this season. Do I think they'll be good? No. Do I think their games could be quite entertaining? Yes.
Tim Walter's style is based on attack and it can be creative enough for chances. The problem is it leaves them exposed to be played through on the counter attack.
This is based on watching their pre-season performances so things could change but they may have some issues against a Bristol City side whose price is shortening every time I look.
Instead of gambling on the uncertainty of the match market, I'll side with the 12/1 available for RYAN GILES TO SCORE ANYTIME.
This is another pick which has the variety of pricing with it but eight bookmakers go 10/1 or bigger - all of which is fine given the positional change we could see.
It looks as if they've priced him up as a left-back, but during pre-season games he's been playing on the left wing. Far more advanced than the odds suggest.
Ryan Longman may be missing through injury, while Liam Millar's move surely comes too late for involvement from the off on the opening weekend. That should mean Giles is placed in attack.
He may well still join Middlesbrough despite signing permanently for Hull this summer - that part of the loan deal which took him to the club from Luton in January - but there remains a chance of early involvement.
I'll give it a go at the prices available.
MK Dons vs Bradford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home evens | Draw 23/10 | Away 11/5
MK Dons are fancied by many (myself included) to secure the Sky Bet League Two title this season.
The play-off campaign against Crawley was a disaster but they had clearly been one of the best teams in England's fourth tier under Mike Williamson's guidance prior to that.
They've recruited well and look strong. The campaign can start with a home victory over Bradford.
JOE TOMLINSON looks value at a general price of 11/2 to SCORE ANYTIME in front of the main TV cameras.
Following Mike Williamson's arrival in October last season, only Max Dean and Alex Gilbey posted more shots than the left wing-back. He scored seven goals across this period.
Tomlinson saw 41% of his shots on target too - a solid percentage. With the expectation that MK have a strong season, the odds available on their home games will get shorter as the weeks go by.
I'll take this 11/2 while it's available.
Odds correct at 1610 BST (08/08/2024)
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