Football betting tips: Premier League, EFL, Serie A
Saturday
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals in Lazio vs Atalanta (19:45) at 5/6 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Sunday
1pt Jordan Storey to score anytime in Preston vs Sheffield Wednesday (12:30) at 16/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
1.5pts Under 2.5 goals in Shrewsbury vs Northampton (15:00) at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 2.5 goals in Peterborough vs Barnsley, Salford vs Morecambe, Bradford vs Chesterfield & MK Dons vs Crewe (15:00) at 10.4/1 (William Hill)
1pt Southampton 15+ fouls committed vs Crystal Palace (15:00) at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Southampton 17+ fouls committed vs Crystal Palace (15:00) at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
Alright then, we're back to the weekend.
This weekend sees the Premier League continue with a couple of fixtures on Friday night before the next Matchday begins on Sunday.
The EFL is also back for another round on the same day, as is the Scottish Premiership, while Serie A do their round of festive fixtures over the next few days.
So, plenty of football to get stuck into during the, well, never-ending cycle of football to get stuck into.
As was the case in the last column, I won't be putting as many selections up because of the huge number of games over the next week or so. Warnock, disciplined, etc.
We begin in England's top-flight on Friday.
Lazio vs Atalanta
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Saturday
- Home 15/8 | Draw 23/10 | Away 11/8
Saturday night sees two of the best attacks in the Italian top-flight face-off as Lazio welcome Atalanta.
Atalanta have scored a league-high 42 goals after 17 games while Lazio are third in this area with 32. According to the underlying numbers, the expected goals (xG) has these as the leading sides.
It's why the 5/6 on OVER 2.5 GOALS is the bet to back.
No side has seen this be a winning selection in games more than Lazio this season - 14 of their 17 games seeing at least three scored.
In home games, it's a perfect eight from eight with the average standing at 3.6 goals. It's happened more times than not in Atalanta's contests on the road.
Even with that solid Atalanta defence, Lazio possess the quality in attack to find the net at least once. They're also looking to bounce back after a 6-0 thrashing by Inter in their last home game.
It's interesting they're not a particularly high shot volume side either, instead focusing on the quality of the chances by creating them closer to goal. It explains their high overall xG figure.
Lazio have managed just two clean sheets in their eight home games this season too. It looks a match-up with all the potential for goals at both ends.
Preston vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 29/20 | Draw 21/10 | Away 19/10
Confidence will be high for Sheffield Wednesday after they overturned a 3-0 deficit to draw 3-3 with Middlesbrough on Boxing Day.
They're a better team on the road it seems. The Owls have gained 16 points in games at Hillsborough yet 17 when the away side - they've played a game less in the latter too.
Preston have become a tough side to beat at home though as a 1-0 victory over Hull extended the unbeaten run to five - although four of those have been draws.
One issue Wednesday continue to have is defending set-pieces and I'm interested in the 16/1 on JORDAN STOREY TO SCORE ANYTIME here.
On a per game average, Danny Röhl's side are conceding a significant 0.47 expected goals (xG) from corners and free-kicks this season. That is the eighth-highest of all 92 teams in England's top four tiers.
Preston aren't prolific - they're 'upper mid-table' in this metric - yet the likely close nature of the contest means that a set-piece could prove to be the difference.
Storey found the net in the away defeat at Millwall in September and registered an assist in the home win over Watford the game after.
He's one of Preston's biggest aerial threats and has returned ten shots across 11 home league games this season.
Stoke's three centre-backs combined for five shots in their recent meeting with Wednesday, while Blackburn, Derby, Oxford and Preston in the reverse fixture have seen at least one defender have a shot in the Owls' games in December.
I'll back Storey to grab his second of the campaign at the prices available.
Odds correct at 1120 GMT (27/12/24)
Goals accumulator
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
We came within one goal of a successful over 2.5 accumulator in the Boxing Day column - Walsall's 2-0 win over Doncaster being the game which let it down.
And like Thursday, there are a number of games which deliver appeal for end-to-end action with the four games mentioned here a best price of 10.4/1 - anything around the general 9s is also fine.
We'll start in League One where the unpredictable PETERBOROUGH host BARNSLEY.
No side in England's third tier has seen this as a winner more than Posh (16 from 21) while Barnsley sit fourth in this area (15 from 22).
Into League Two and MORECAMBE are unexpectedly gaining results on the road - that sets up a potentially entertaining clash when they go to SALFORD.
Three of Salford's last five home games in all competitions have seen over 2.5 goals, with the two games which fell short being 2-0 victories.
Morecambe, meanwhile, have found the net in four of their last five on the road.
Elsewhere, we're looking at BRADFORD's clash with CHESTERFIELD. This has been a winner in four of the Bantams' last six league games at home.
For Chesterfield, seven of their 11 away league contests have seen over 2.5 goals - that is the third-best record for it in the fourth tier.
And finally, despite wanting MK DONS banned from all future editions of This Week's Acca I have no issue having them involved here considering their unpredictable nature.
That has meant goals with five of their last seven at home in all competitions delivering at least three. CREWE have found the net in each of their last ten away league matches.
Odds correct at 1155 GMT (27/12/24)
Crystal Palace vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 19/10
I'm going to go for a repeat of what was ultimately a winning approach in Southampton's clash with West Ham on Boxing Day.
The point made in the last column was that Ivan Jurić's Torino sides would always rank low on tackles completed but high for fouls committed.
In 23/24, they were 20th for tackles and eighth for fouls. In 22/23, it was 20th for tackles and fifth for fouls. In 21/22, it was 17th for tackles and first for fouls.
So in Jurić's first game at the helm, the Saints returned 15+ FOULS COMMITTED and I'm willing to take the 7/2 on a repeat performance here.
This is a bet that I will be looking to in the coming weeks if it either wins or goes close. It's something worth taking while the value is available.
The fact that Southampton hit the fouls line in the last game - we took them for 14+ at 10/3 - suggests that Jurić is getting his philosophy across despite only being there for less than a week.
If you want a slightly different approach, one player of interest is Lesley Ugochukwu who finished the game with three fouls. The midfielder is available at 11/4 with 365 for a card.
And again, with the prices available, I'll also back 17+ FOULS COMMITTED at a price of 9/1.
They are the visitors in this one, and with Palace expected to be on the front foot, there is a chance of the fouls line going high.
Shrewsbury vs Northampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 19/10
Shrewsbury secured a much-needed victory over Lincoln on Boxing Day and the fixture list presents them with an opportunity to make it two-in-a-row when they host Northampton.
The visitors have conceded at least three goals in each of their last four outings - no surprise that all of those ended in defeat.
Do Shrewsbury have the attack to seriously punish them? I'm not entirely sure. It's why I'm interested in the 10/11 on UNDER 2.5 GOALS here.
Only Burton and Stevenage possess a worse attack than Northampton, according to the underlying expected goals (xG) numbers, while Salop have failed to go above 1.00 xG in each of their last three.
Three of Northampton's four games against those also in the bottom six have seen under 2.5 goals land as a winner, with contests against Burton and Cambridge both ending 0-0.
This certainly won't be my go-to game for viewing.
Already advised
Friday
1pt Brentford 5+ corners vs Brighton (19:30) at 13/10 (BetVictor)
Brighton vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Friday
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 8/13 | Draw 16/5 | Away 18/5
You may think that Brighton are a short price to win this game considering their recent form.
That's not a bad opinion to have at all but it's not exactly like the Brentford price is particularly appealing either given their horrendous showings on the road.
Thomas Frank's side are the best home team in the division but the worst away. They've gained one point from a possible 24 in away contests this season.
Just stay clear of the match market here to be honest.
Instead, the styles of the two sides involved and the likely game state means that the 13/10 on BRENTFORD 5+ CORNERS is worth considering.
The Bees have achieved this in each of their last three away games in all competitions with the game before that seeing four in the 0-0 draw with Everton.
It's hardly a surprise when we consider that they are often chasing the game when they're not in front of their own supporters. That is always a strong factor for corner betting.
Brighton's own defensive style leaves them open to conceding corners, as they have been doing in recent weeks. Teams do have space available on the counter attack and it often leads to the ball being deflected behind.
With Brentford a side not afraid to use their width too, I'll side with them hitting a low enough corner marker for some interest at the price.
Odds correct at 0940 GMT (27/12/24) unless otherwise stated
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