Football betting tips: Premier League, EFL, Scottish Premiership
Sunday
1pt Liam Scales to score anytime in Celtic vs St. Mirren (15:00) at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Hearts 6+ corners vs Dundee United (15:00) at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Mohamed Salah 1+ assists in Liverpool vs Manchester United (16:30) at 21/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
The busy period of festive football has reached its conclusion, with the first weekend of 2025 bringing back some normality to the schedule.
The Premier League and Sky Bet EFL take centre stage on Saturday, with Liverpool's contest with Manchester United headlining Sunday's action.
It's another weekend where it's worth keeping an eye on the weather. Snow, ice, rain and wind are expected in parts of the country which will inevitably play a part in the fixture list.
Hopefully, the games selected here all survive the cold snap.
Celtic vs St. Mirren
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 1/9 | Draw 7/1 | Away 18/1
I don't think many people saw that Celtic performance coming in their 3-0 defeat to Rangers on Thursday.
In fairness, their Glasgow rivals were excellent but it was so unusual to see a Celtic side so convincingly outplayed in a domestic game.
Sunday gives them a chance to get back on track and the clichéd 'you fear for St. Mirren' comes into play. Brendan Rodgers' side will be out to make things right.
It's not surprise that they are an incredible home side with eight wins and a draw to Aberdeen on their tally. Celtic have scored 29 and conceded just twice.
Four of those games have seen them winning by at least four goals too. It should be a contest which only goes one way and value is present in the set-pieces.
The 8/1 on LIAM SCALES TO SCORE ANYTIME is certainly eye-catching given St. Mirren's issues defending corners and free-kicks this season.
No side has conceded more than the 13 goals they have from set-piece situations this season. They also rank second for expected goals (xG) allowed in this area.
Celtic sit third for the xG created here and they should really run up the corner count with them expected to be on the front foot throughout.
Scales is a significant aerial threat and has three goals on his tally across all competitions so far. Five of his last six league games have seen him returning at least one shot.
The hosts have taken the most corners in the Scottish Premiership by some distance and the figure is higher in home games than it is away.
It could easily become a game where Celtic run up the score and Scales should see some chances to strike.
Odds correct at 1005 GMT (03/01/25)
Dundee United vs Hearts
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 19/10
Dundee United come into this contest in high spirits after Sam Dalby's late goal secured a 2-1 winner over rivals Dundee on Thursday.
It extended their winning run to three games and it puts them in a good spot against an inconsistent Hearts outfit.
What Hearts are good for though is corner betting and the 11/8 on HEARTS 6+ CORNERS is a solid bet on Sunday.
There's a couple of reasons for this and that is their style of play and the game state they often find themselves in.
In 21 Premiership games this season, Hearts have conceded the first goal on 13 occasions. In ten games on the road, the number stands at a significant eight.
And then there's the fact they love to use the width and cross the ball. They lead the way for crosses attempted in the Scottish top-flight by some distance, that leads to the ball being deflected behind.
Backing this would have been a winner in four of Hearts' last five away league games - the one game that fell short being the five they took at Ross County.
With Dundee United grabbing the first goal more often than not in home games (seven in ten), it looks set up to be another game where the visitors are chasing.
Odds correct at 0920 GMT (03/01/25)
Liverpool vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Away 8/1
Manchester United fans will be dreading this fixture and honestly, who can blame them?
The appointment of Ruben Amorim has done nothing in the short term beyond a lucky win away at Manchester City and they were completely outplayed in defeat to Newcastle last time out.
It's not a case of 'will Liverpool win' but rather 'how many will Liverpool win by?'.
The hosts are odds-on to find the net at least three times and the openness of this United side means it's a real possibility.
MOHAMED SALAH should star once again and it was a surprise to see a price as generous as 21/10 on 1+ ASSISTS.
That applies to the odds of around 7/4 in most other places. The winger has 13 assists in the Premier League this season - 17 in all competitions.
He's averaging two chances created in each league outing and Sam McGuire's excellent piece - which you can read here - outlines the changes Arne Slot has made to allow Salah to become this effective.
Look, there's no point in saying much else. You like football, you'll be aware that Salah is quite good at it.
But he's seemingly hit another level this season and when prices of 2/1 or so are available in this market in a home game, we have to hold some interest.
It could be a comfortable Liverpool win. If it is, Salah will surely have involvement.
Odds correct at 1055 GMT (03/01/25)
Already advised
Saturday
1pt Over 2.5 goals in Swansea vs West Brom, Stoke vs Plymouth & Notts County vs Swindon (12:30) at 4.82/1 (William Hill)
1pt Grimsby to score 2+ goals vs Bradford (13:00) at 13/5 (William Hill)
1pt Southampton 15+ fouls committed vs Brentford (15:00) at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Southampton 17+ fouls committed vs Brentford (15:00) at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Max Wöber to score anytime in Hull vs Leeds (15:00) at 14/1 (General)
1pt Japhet Tanganga to score anytime in Sheffield Wednesday vs Millwall (15:00) at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Goals accumulator
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
I put up three of these over the festive period and two of them came within a goal of success.
That has given me hope that it's a potential path to profit so I'm going to be including them in the next few editions of this column.
There's also three games involved in the early kick-off which have caught my eye, the first being SWANSEA vs WEST BROM.
The Baggies haven't been involved in high scoring games typically this season but that was under Carlos Corberan who has since departed for Valencia.
In the three games since, over 2.5 goals has been a winner twice, with the one game which fell short being a 1-1 draw at Sheffield United.
This has also been a winner in nine of Swansea's last ten games.
Elsewhere, we'll side with STOKE vs PLYMOUTH seeing action at both ends. This will be Mark Robins' first game at the helm for the hosts.
Plymouth's first game of the post-Wayne Rooney era was a 2-2 draw with Bristol City and there may be more intent to attack given the need for points.
Moving down to League Two and NOTTS COUNTY vs SWINDON has goals potential. It's certainly been the case in recent weeks.
Five of the Magpies' last six games have gone over 2.5 - the game which fell short being a 2-0 win at MK Dons - with seven of Swindon's ten league games under Ian Holloway hitting the marker.
Bradford vs Grimsby
- Kick-off time: 13:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 3/1
An intriguing game takes place in an earlier slot on Saturday with Bradford welcoming Grimsby. Both must hold some aspirations of a top seven finish given their positions at this point in the season.
The Mariners were beaten by Accrington on New Year's Day but could have held a commanding lead based on first-half chances.
I'm going to revisit what was a successful tip that day though and take a bigger price of 13/5 on GRIMSBY TO SCORE 2+ GOALS.
Backing this has been a winner in five of the Mariners' last seven games and they put three past Morecambe in an away game during this run.
They also scored twice in the loss to Accrington and David Artell has an attack which looks to have been clicking in recent weeks. There is also the likelihood of Danny Rose coming back into the forward line.
Bradford have been on the slightly better side of average in terms of defensive showings but they did concede twice at Barrow last time out.
They've also failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last four contests - a total of seven goals allowed across this period.
Andy Cook is a huge injury blow for the hosts but I'm not entirely sure if I want to back an away win based on some defensive performances. I'd feel more comfortable taking a slightly shorter price on goals.
There's also a chance looking at the weather that this game is called off due to a frozen pitch - we're hitting below 0 in terms of the temperature in the day/night before - so sorry if I've wasted your time.
Southampton vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 17/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 7/5
I'm going to repeat a winning strategy from the columns over the festive period.
A price of 7/2 is still available on SOUTHAMPTON 15+ FOULS COMMITTED. That's great value based on their early showings under Ivan Jurić.
The original reason for getting behind this pick previously was that Jurić's Torino side would always rank low on tackles completed but high for fouls committed.
Against West Ham, the Saints committed 15 fouls and away at Palace the figure was 19. Jurić has already got this element of his style of play across to the squad.
The season average stands at 12.4 but that will increase by the end of the season should they carry on in this way. It's a value play at the prices.
And that includes the 9/1 on SOUTHAMPTON 17+ FOULS COMMITTED, which they achieved last time out.
This is another bet worth targeting while the price remains available.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Millwall
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 21/10 | Away 5/2
This game, and in particular the selection, was discussed heavily with Jimmy before we published our columns. He insisted I included it here - how kind of him.
I've spoken previously of Sheffield Wednesday's issues defending set-pieces and it continued with both Derby centre-backs in Curtis Nelson and Nat Phillips registering shots in the 4-2 defeat at Hillsborough.
You can get 25/1 on Millwall's JAPHET TANGANGA TO SCORE ANYTIME which is a good value play, as is anything really from 14/1 upwards.
We await to see what Millwall's set-pieces are like under Alex Neil but it's been a strength throughout the campaign and Tanganga has had opportunities to strike.
The defender has been the subject of some transfer speculation for the January window and it's not a surprise when you consider his performances this season.
He has returned at least one shot in each of his last 11 league outings with goals coming against Oxford and Leeds. Tanganga brings a significant aerial presence.
And that is increasingly important with Jake Cooper unavailable through injury. They're looking at Tanganga more in terms of the attacking set-piece threats.
In terms of the underlying numbers, Wednesday have allowed the highest expected goals (xG) from set-piece situations in the Championship and sit second in this metric in the entire EFL.
They should continue to struggle against a side who know this is a strength.
Hull vs Leeds
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 19/4 | Draw 3/1 | Away 8/15
Leeds will have been disappointed to throw away a late lead gained in a draw with Blackburn but it turned out to be a positive day for them given a draw for Burnley and defeat for Sheffield United.
Daniel Farke's side are 1/40 in places to be promoted (I've tripled checked that because what?) and it's clear that they are the best side in England's second division.
Leeds at home is a big game for Hull though, but anything less than three points will leave the visitors feeling annoyed.
Farke's done a great job of rotation and keeping players fit over the busy festive period and the one change you'd expect here is MAX WÖBER to come in at left-back in place of Sam Byram.
I don't know if it's the novelty of being a centre-back playing out wide but Wöber loves to get forward. He found the net in Leeds' win over Derby last month.
Max Wober doubles Leeds United's lead on the stroke of half time! ⚪ pic.twitter.com/N8fhtJYiZy
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) December 7, 2024
It's 14/1 with multiple bookmakers on a GOAL ANYTIME which is certainly appealing given the strength of this Leeds attack.
With Manor Solomon likely to be on that side and wanting to cut inside using his right foot, Wöber will need to get forward to provide the more natural left-footed option.
That means he'll have to get forward but Leeds demand that of their full-backs anyway.
He's returned a total of nine shots across his previous three appearances but it's worth noting that the only game he started in that run was the home win over Middlesbrough.
It looks like Wöber has been priced up as a centre-back but he'll be in a far more attacking role if he's involved.
Odds correct at 1120 GMT (03/01/25)
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