Football betting tips: EFL, Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, National League North
Friday
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund (19:30) at 21/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Scarborough to score 3+ goals vs Farsley Celtic (19:45) at 2/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
Saturday
1pt Bochum & Holstein Kiel both to win (14:30) at 10.1/1 (bet365)
1pt Preston to take the most corners vs Luton (15:00) at 11/4 (Betfair)
1pt BTTS in the first-half of Hamburg vs Köln (19:30) at 11/4 (bet365)
Sunday
1pt Daniel James to score from outside the area in Leeds vs Sheffield Wednesday (12:00) at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Further tips may follow...
The midweek round of Premier League fixtures has complicated the look ahead to the weekend slightly, which is why I'm going to ignore it completely.
There's better action to be had elsewhere anyway. There always is. Last week's column took us to Germany and I'm fancying a return this time around.
It won't be exclusively from the German top-flight though and we do have action from elsewhere included. It's tough not to with some eye-catching fixtures on the schedule.
We begin on Friday night, with the usual trip to Europe's top league accompanied by a rare look down the English football pyramid.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 11/10 | Draw 11/4 | Away 2/1
The pressure is certainly on Nuri Sahin as Borussia Dortmund boss.
A shock 4-2 defeat to Holstein Kiel on Tuesday continued the season-long trend of poor performances in away games and those efforts, or lack of, on the road have left them ninth in the Bundesliga table.
The appearance of former Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag at recent games has been dismissed as nothing more than watching football alongside someone he knows well but the Dortmund board can't allow this to go on for much longer.
Even by Dortmund's own 'Spursy-esque' standards, this is bad.
Hosts Eintracht Frankfurt may well be without star forward Omar Marmoush as Manchester City look to bring him in during the January transfer window. Even then, they'll feel confident that they can close the five-point gap to second place Leverkusen.
At prices of 2/1 and slightly above, taking OVER 11.5 CORNERS is my approach here.
The home side sit third for corners taken in the Bundesliga this season and their style of play plays a significant part. No side in the Bundesliga attacks down their right side more.
Dortmund's element here is the likely game state. They took nine in Kiel and have regularly hit around the five marker when chasing as they're behind.
At the prices, it's worth backing with the teams involved.
Farsley Celtic vs Scarborough
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
- Home 7/1 | Draw 10/3 | Away 3/10
You may look at the National League North table and think that Scarborough's price for success here is a bit short but it's with good reason.
They're the 'away' side in the contest but then so are Farsley Celtic who have been forced to play their entire season away from their west Leeds home due to long-running work on their pitch.
It's staggering they're not in the relegation zone already and they somehow beat Curzon Ashton away a few weeks ago but it's been a chaotic week in an already very chaotic season.
Captain and the club's record appearance holder Chris Atkinson announced he will be departing, although he's been sidelined with injury, but he had been a part of the coaching staff.
Ben Atkinson and DJ Campton-Sturridge were two other players released from their contract and then came the big news - manager Pav Singh resigned.
Club Statement: Pav Singh#CeltArmyhttps://t.co/aqT93svkQ5
— Farsley Celtic (@FarsleyCelticFC) January 11, 2025
The whole situation is an absolute mess and it's worth siding with any opponent beating them and doing so comfortably this season. That starts with Friday's visit of SCARBOROUGH and taking their 2/1 price to SCORE 3+ GOALS.
Led by former Manchester United and West Brom midfielder Jono Greening, the fan-owned outfit sit 16th and find themselves on a five-match winless run.
In fairness, their last two defeats have been away at Kidderminster (who are top) and Darlington (who sit seventh) and this game presents them with a fantastic opportunity to get back on track.
Farsley only have four teams sat below them and yet they've lost their last two to those sides. Rushall (23rd) scored three in victory, as did Radcliffe (21st).
Just where they go from here is a mystery. In the short term, it's not going to be an enjoyable experience for those forced to follow their side on social media.
Bundesliga double
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
There are a couple of results which grabbed my interest across Saturday's Bundesliga action, and while both are 2/1 and above as singles, I'm willing to take the 10/1 on the double.
We'll start with the bigger of the two prices in BOCHUM TO BEAT LEIPZIG. Now a look at the league table may leave you wondering why but a few factors are at play here.
One of those is Leipzig's recent away form. Six of their last seven away games in all competitions have ended in the defeat - a run that includes a 4-3 loss at 16th-placed Hoffenheim.
HEIMSIEG! IST DAS WICHTIG!
— VfL Bochum 1848 (@VfLBochum1848eV) January 15, 2025
Wir schlagen St. Pauli durch den Hoffi-Treffer!💪😍 #BOCFCSP 1:0 pic.twitter.com/jyQnSiKLNu
And they were beaten away at Stuttgart in midweek. A game that not only saw them leave empty-handed but with red cards to forward pairing Loïs Openda AND Benjamin Sesko, who will now be suspended for this one.
Bochum may sit bottom of the Bundesliga table but they've won back-to-back home games against Heidenheim and St. Pauli, both of which to nil. The home record this season also contains a 1-1 draw with Leverkusen.
The one thing to consider is that they have suffered heavy defeats to Bayern and Eintracht Frankfurt, although performances have improved across the previous gameweeks.
The other game we're looking at is HOLSTEIN KIEL TO BEAT HOFFENHEIM in a massive game at the bottom end.
Kiel gained a much-needed, and surprise, 4-2 victory over Dortmund last time out to move them within three points of Saturday's opponents, who were hammered 5-0 by Bayern.
⚠️Here is Hoffenheim’s Andrej Kramaric and his interview with us on @ESPNFC after their 5-0 defeat at Bayern.
— Archie Rhind-Tutt (@archiert1) January 15, 2025
“This is one big shit season”
“If I want to say the things on my mind about the club, I will probably get the biggest fine in the history of the Bundesliga.” pic.twitter.com/QrYyjWCkbv
The incredible interview given by Hoffenheim forward Andrej Kramaric summed up just how bad things have been going for a side not expected to be involved in the relegation battle back in August.
“It was clear from the start that this was going to happen," he stated.
"This is the picture of the whole season, this is one big shit season, I’m going to be honest.
"I’m still soft as if I want to say the truth and somethings which are on my mind about the club and the current situation, I would probably get the biggest punishment in the history of the Bundesliga."
This is a club in a bad way and those words are far from ideal going into this crucial clash. All three of Kiel's home wins have come against sides sat 10th or lower.
Luton vs Preston
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 11/5 | Away 12/5
Luton are looking to get their season back on track with the appointment of Matt Bloomfield as their new boss - he replaces Rob Edwards.
The Hatters are 20th in the Sky Bet Championship table and need results; they need them fast too. Just two points separate themselves and the drop zone going into the weekend.
While I do think the home side could gain victory, the best bet comes in the 11/4 on PRESTON TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS. The prices of 2/1 and above available with the majority of other bookmakers are more than fine too.
Luton sit fourth for corners taken in the Championship this season but that was under previous management. A look at Wycombe's campaign so far suggests that this may no longer be the case.
Despite being an attacking side who sat at the top of the League One table, the Chairboys were actually down in 15th for corners taken. That could well be down to their lack of crossing.
They rank 20th for crosses attempted at this stage and this may become a game where the overall corner count is actually quite low.
Preston aren't a team for attempting plenty of crosses either but they do at least look to their width. No team has attacked through the middle third of the pitch on fewer occasions.
The game state may also play a factor as the visitors look for a way back in. While a speculative punt on what Luton may be like under new management, it's one worth taking at the prices, although we must remember the element of the unknown still.
Hamburg vs Köln
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Saturday
- Home 29/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 7/5
A meeting between two clubs who should be in the Bundesliga. In fairness, that may well be the case next season.
Although this is Hamburg. A massive name who have been stuck in the second tier of German football. This is their seventh consecutive season featuring in the 2. Bundesliga and their lowest finish across that period is fourth.
Twice have they come close to a top-flight return and twice have they been beaten in the promotion play-off. Both of those games coming in the last three years too.
The average attendance last season was 55,889 - a sold out 57,000 crowd were there for the 2-2 draw with Schalke at the end of November with 54,786 in for the 5-0 thrashing of Fürth just before the winter break. The pressure is huge and they've been held back by a number of home draws.
But what they have done is make fast starts in front of their own supporters with 68% of their home goals coming in the first-half.
In the opening 30 minutes, it's a significant 52% of their total home goals. While they may have conceded just once, Köln's own first-half showings give this game the potential to have end-to-end action throughout.
They've seen 67% of their away goals scored before the break and that's why the 11/4 on BTTS IN THE FIRST-HALF is a particularly appealing selection.
Those with a Betway or William Hill account should note that they are offering 10/11 on Hamburg 1+ goals, which is another bet well worth consideration.
Some bookmakers go as short as 5/4 on Over 3.5 goals in the game, with 2/5 available on BTTS. It's a game where the expectation is that the goal counter runs high.
And that's not a surprise when seven of Hamburg's nine at home have seen four or more scored - the 11 in 17 across all venues is also the highest in the league.
Considering the fast start the hosts usually make, it's worth siding with goals at both ends before the break.
Leeds vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Kick-off time: 12:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event, ITV1
- Home 1/3 | Draw 19/5 | Away 15/2
Leeds shouldn't be in a battle at the top of the Championship and yet here we are, although their home form isn't the reason why they haven't managed to break clear.
Sheffield Wednesday are the visitors on Sunday and their decision to hold their annual supporters forum has, once again, not ended with a positive vibe.
Nothing good comes from it and they're instead left feeling angered and annoyed by the things that have been said. The owner saying you can find a buyer for me, I have future plans but you can't know as it doesn't affect you and the recruitment team not bothering to present anything the particular highlights.
Hardly ideal preparation.
Leeds are 1/3 for success but there is far more appeal in taking the 14/1 on DANIEL JAMES TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX.
The winger - who is a best price of 12/5 to score anytime - has scored six times in 20 appearances for Daniel Farke's side.
What is interesting though is that, while only one of those may have come from outside the box, James does see a high volume of efforts from distance.
An eye-catching 52% of his total shots this season have been from outside the area - 35% of which have been on target.
No side averages more shots in home games than Leeds' 18.4 with 6.2 of those from outside the area. In a game where they're expected to be on the front foot throughout, James can strike.
Odds correct at 1545 GMT (16/01/25) unless otherwise stated
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