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Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets in Premier League, EFL, Bundesliga for August 24-25
- Tom Carnduff's Weekend Tips - Staked: 10.5pts | Returned: 11.38pts | P/L: +0.88pts | ROI: 8.4%
Football betting tips: Premier League, Bundesliga, EFL
Sunday
1.5pts Heidenheim to take 5+ corners vs St. Pauli (16:30) at 5/4 (bet365, Sky Bet)
0.5pt Patrick Mainka to score anytime in St. Pauli vs Heidenheim (16:30) at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
I think the best word to describe last weekend's column is 'frustrating'.
Bayern hit the required four goals in their cup fixture on Friday night, but City fell one short against Chelsea, while Bolton's Eoin Toal somehow missed a close range header with most of the net to go at.
Backed Eoin Toal anytime at 11s in the latest column and I've only just seen this chance ffs. pic.twitter.com/cD2sBf4GRm
— Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff) August 19, 2024
I'm TOTALLY FINE ABOUT IT THOUGH as we move on to the next round of fixtures, with a rare midweek off top level domestic matches.
I did get my football fix by attending Guiseley's 0-0 draw with Blyth Spartans in the Northern Premier League on Tuesday night at least. And who was the Blyth boss? Nobby Solano - there's your random fact for the day.
Anyway, here's a few games that have caught my eye across the next few days.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 16/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 3/4
Arsenal's title-aiming campaign began with an expected victory over Wolves, while Aston Villa were successful in their trip to West Ham.
Confidence will be high in both camps ahead of a contest which could go either way. Villa, under Unai Emery, have already demonstrated their ability to not only compete with but beat the best.
It's been a summer of some change for the hosts as they look to build a squad which can compete on multiple fronts. As you'd expect, some adjustments have been made.
MORGAN ROGERS has been a strong performer since his arrival in January, with 6/4 on 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET value worth considering this weekend.
He's been operating in an advanced midfield role, but his versatility means that he can play anywhere across the forward line.
Against West Ham last week, Rogers posted two shots with one of those on target. In the eight games he started last season, he averaged 0.62 shots on target per 90 - take away the Brighton game where he went off injured in the first-half and the number increases slightly to 0.65.
Villa won't see plenty of opportunities in this game but Rogers should be in the right area for when they arrive. The prices available deliver enough appeal.
St. Pauli vs Heidenheim
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/10
St. Pauli enter the new Bundesliga campaign as a bit of an unknown.
Fabian Hürzeler departed for Brighton after a season which saw them not only gain promotion but do so as the best side in the second division.
Alexander Blessin has been named as his replacement and they've enjoyed a solid pre-season - that followed by an away win in extra-time against fourth tier Hallescher in the cup last weekend.
Heidenheim surprised many last season and their threat from set-pieces caused their opponents plenty of problems. It's worth siding with them to see 5+ CORNERS here at odds-against prices.
They sat fifth for corners taken in the 23/24 Bundesliga, a clear strength meaning they're looking to win them in order to capitalise. They ranked fourth for shots taken after set-pieces and seventh for big chances created.
PATRICK MAINKA's a good player to target here, with 18/1 available for the centre-back to SCORE ANYTIME. He's a huge threat in these situations.
He sat fourth for shots taken in this Heidenheim side last season, averaging 0.85 per 90.
Already advised:
1.5pts Mats Wieffer 3+ tackles in Brighton vs Manchester United (12:30) at 5/4 (Sky Bet) - VOID
2.5pts Mainz to score 2+ goals vs Union Berlin (14:30) at 5/4 (General)
1pt Gillingham to beat Fleetwood (15:00) at 21/10 (Betfred)
1pt Morgan Rogers 1+ shots on target in Aston Villa vs Arsenal (17:30) at 6/4 (General)
Brighton vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Home 29/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 8/5
Brighton were very impressive in their opening weekend victory over Everton; Manchester United improved despite some concerns in a home win against Fulham.
The Seagulls will be full of confidence ahead of Saturday's early kick-off and not too many will disagree with them being made the favourites for all three points.
They continue to recruit, with big money being spent to secure the best talent in their category. Remarkably, it doesn't look like slowing down before the deadline either.
One of the new faces is MATS WIEFFER, with the midfielder one of the standout performers in their last contest. Odds-against prices on 3+ TACKLES certainly appeals.
He returned four successful tackles at Goodison Park, which is hardly a surprise when we consider what sort of player he is. He averaged 2.9 successful across 29 appearances for Feyenoord in the Eredivisie last season.
This should be a game in which the midfield battle is busy. He's also the most 'defensive-minded' of their group in this area, meaning he will be the one to cover when they're committing bodies forward in attack.
Fulham's Sasa Lukic had three at Old Trafford on Friday, a player with a similar role to Wieffer.
This feels like a pick where the value is there to be had now before it inevitably disappears when he posts good numbers on a more regular basis.
It's worthwhile backing Wieffer to have involvement in Saturday's early kick-off.
Mainz vs Union Berlin
- Kick-off time: 14:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 19/20 | Draw 9/4 | Away 29/10
The Bundesliga returns this weekend, although we have seen some competitive football already with the DFB-Pokal.
Mainz may have lost Brajan Gruda to Brighton this summer - the talented forward going for a £25million fee - but they will remain optimistic that they can kick on and secure a top half finish this season.
When Bo Henriksen arrived in February, he inherited a side led by Jan Siewert (not Martin from Wakefield) which sat 17th in the Bundesliga table and four points adrift of the relegation play-off spot - nine from complete safety.
They finished 13th following his 13 games at the helm - two points clear of the bottom-three.
It was a remarkable turnaround and they were performing as a side who would be sat among the European places during that period. Odds-against prices are available they beat Union Berlin on Saturday, but I'll take the 5/4 for MAINZ TO SCORE 2+ GOALS.
The 23 goals Mainz scored under Henriksen ranked them 7th in Germany's top-flight, with the xG figure of 22.35 placing them 6th.
They were also 6th for shots and 10th for efforts on target. Mainz may have conceded 16 goals during this period but EIGHT of those came in one contest away at Bayern.
It's annoying that bookmakers don't offer any other 'top finish' markets than the top four because I'd be interested in the prices on Mainz qualifying for Europe this season - being one of the four best teams is a big ask.
I'm happy enough to side with them enjoying a positive opening weekend though.
Fleetwood vs Gillingham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 5/4 | Draw 9/4 | Away 9/5
This was a game Jimmy and I disagreed on in the latest episode of the This Week's Acca podcast, so I'm fully expecting to see Fleetwood appear somewhere else on this site.
Prices of 2/1 or so are available on a GILLINGHAM win which I think represents a good bit of value at this stage of the season.
Mark Bonner's side have started the campaign in great form, thrashing Carlisle 4-1 on opening weekend and following it up with an away win at Morecambe.
They've built a strong squad and find themselves as favourites now with a couple of bookmakers to win the league outright - that giving me further confidence on the back of the early showings.
Charlie Adam has done well at Fleetwood but this is all about Gillingham. I don't think we'll be seeing this price that often if their season plays out as expected.
Odds correct at 1450 BST (22/08/24)
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