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Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets in Premier League, EFL & Bundesliga for August 30-September 1
- Tom Carnduff's Weekend Tips - Staked: 18.5pts | Returned: 12.88pts | P/L: -5.62pts | ROI: -30%
Football betting tips: EFL, Bundesliga
2pts Over 10.5 corners in Heidenheim vs Augsburg (14:30) at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Heidenheim vs Augsburg
- Kick-off time: 14:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports
- Home 11/8 | Draw 12/5 | Away 9/5
Heidenheim were an unsuccessful pick in last week's column but I'm happy to take a similar approach in their home contests.
They have qualified for the Europa Conference League - a remarkable rise in such a short space of time - and set-pieces have been a big factor behind their success.
You can get 11/8 on OVER 10.5 CORNERS in this contest and that's a price worth backing.
This should be a fairly competitive game. The previous meeting between the two sides here saw the visitors emerge as 5-2 winners - the scoreline sat at 3-2 at half-time.
Heidenheim took the fifth-highest amount of corners in the Bundesliga last season so there remains a reliance on making the most of these situations.
This is a bit of a game state play though, with this expected to be a close contest throughout - it may even become another high-scorer.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (30/08/24)
Already advised
0.75pt e.w. Jimmy Dunne to score first in Luton vs QPR (20:00) at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)
1pt Middlesbrough to score 3+ goals vs Cardiff (12:30) at 3/1 (General)
1pt Mainz 5+ corners vs Stuttgart (14:30) at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Preston to score 2+ goals vs Oxford (15:00) at 15/8 (General)
1pt Notts County to beat Swindon (15:00) at 29/20 (bet365)
It's been a tricky couple of weeks for this column with a number of near misses denying some good-priced winners.
I'm not overly concerned at this stage though given that we are only three weeks into the new season. I've been happy enough with the approach to some bets that the confidence remains certain paths are the right ones to go down.
At this early stage, there's been more of a 'gamble' on potential, going with trends we've seen to try and capitalise on the price before it disappears later on - this gave us the 8/1 goalscorer winner in the first week.
This week gives us the transfer deadline on Friday night. I am hopeful that any selections put up here won't be affected by this - it's not so much the incomings but the outgoings that play their part in the immediate aftermath.
So it's worth just double checking the deals that do go through in the final hours to check no star players have departed a club backed to do well here. Unless it truly does spring from nowhere (which rarely happens in this age of social media transfer reporting), I will have factored it in.
Plenty of football still to go and plenty of avenues to explore. This weekend's slate of fixtures is an interesting one and I'm jumping around the leagues to find the best value.
Luton vs QPR
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 4/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 3/1
Just three days after a Carabao Cup meeting, Luton take on QPR in the Sky Bet Championship with the location reversed.
The R's were successful on penalties at Loftus Road on Tuesday night but both sides opted for a few changes as you'd expect. In all honesty, the priority would have been on the three points on offer here.
There's a number of potential betting avenues for this game. The approach from both should favour corners, as will the likely game state, while a few names jump out in the goalscorer markets.
At 40/1, I'm happy to take to back JIMMY DUNNE TO SCORE FIRST as an each-way play.
A number of bookmakers go 16s or above on a goal at any stage across the contest, with Dunne priced up as a centre-back when that hasn't been the case under Martí Cifuentes.
Following his move to right-back in February of last season, only Ilias Chair (43) has taken more shots than Dunne (27), with nine of those on target. That has led to two goals, with one coming in the 2-2 draw with Sheffield United recently.
There's now an open play threat to go alongside their set-pieces, which is a big strength of Dunne's. He can bring a physical presence to these situations which only enhances his chances of finding the net.
And then factor in that QPR have demonstrated a clear preference to attack down their right side this season.
Nearly half of their attacks have been down that flank. It comes as no surprise with such a big number that it is the highest in the division.
What that means is Dunne has been getting into very advanced positions, presenting him shooting opportunities. With Alfie Doughty likely to get forward himself on the left, it should present space for QPR in behind.
The prices are very generous and the early season value comes in taking Dunne to strike.
Cardiff vs Middlesbrough
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 16/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 4/5
Middlesbrough were a team covered in the latest edition of the Notebook column.
Michael Carrick's side have been so wasteful in front of goal. In terms of the quality of chances and the underlying numbers, Middlesbrough rank as the best team of the 72 so far yet they've only found the net three times.
I'm backing them to finally start converting against this Cardiff side, making the 3/1 on MIDDLESBROUGH TO SCORE 3+ GOALS a bet worth consideration.
They've already achieved this in the opening few weeks, although that did come in the Carabao Cup away at Leeds with both sides making plenty of changes.
The set-up impressed though, and if they'd matched the sort of chances they've been creating then they'd have done it on a couple more occasions as well.
On the opening day against Swansea, they won 1-0 but created 2.86 xG. They failed to score in defeat to Derby despite returning 1.55 xG. Two goals against Portsmouth came from 2.90 xG.
I'm not going to focus too much on that shock 5-0 defeat to Stoke in cup action in midweek. The starting line-up was a changed one and I'm glad I waited until then before deciding if I wanted to get involved with their goals line. Even so, they created 1.95 xG.
Cardiff were perhaps somewhat unfortunate to concede five to Burnley in their trip to Turf Moor recently but facing those expected to be towards the top-end of the table looks set to be a problem for them throughout the course of the campaign.
In the 12 games against those who finished in the top six last season, Cardiff conceded at least twice in nine. It's worth backing Boro to add another given their start.
Stuttgart vs Mainz
- Kick-off time: 14:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 8/13 | Draw 3/1 | Away 19/5
Mainz were an unsuccessful inclusion in last week's column, yet they should have delivered had they not wasted a golden opportunity in the final moments to secure victory.
I am a believer in the long-term though and I'm more than happy to stick with them, although with a different approach this time around.
Given they are outsiders in the betting as they travel to Stuttgart, I'll side with the 13/8 available on MAINZ 5+ CORNERS.
Since Bo Henriksen took charge, Mainz have averaged 5.64 corners taken. We, of course, have to exercise some caution with averages and understand the reasons why when it comes to corner betting.
But their approach was often something that led to corners anyway, while the game state also benefitted as they looked to find ways back in.
Away at Stuttgart, there's a good chance they are behind, but there's a competitiveness about this side which means they should always be in a game.
Even if they're not, there's not simply going to be a case of stopping. They took seven corners when hammered 8-1 by Bayern last season - five of those coming in a second-half which saw the hosts score the same tally.
This is a low enough line at a nice price to get my interest.
Oxford vs Preston
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 2/1
Preston come into this game as the outsiders, but a change in the dugout does give them a chance of leaving with all three points.
Paul Heckingbottom's arrival delivered a 1-0 victory over promotion hopefuls Luton, following that up with a 5-0 thrashing of League Two outfit Harrogate in the Carabao Cup.
What was interesting in the latter is the change of system given their level of opposition. If they stick with it, the 15/8 for PRESTON TO SCORE 2+ GOALS may appear to be good value.
Heckingbottom opted for a switch to a back-four, setting up in a sort of 4-4-2/4-2-3-1. We have to factor in the team they were up against usually play at a lower level, but it may have been a switch to try and solve their goalscoring problems.
North End sat 14th for goals scored in the Championship last season yet 23rd in the xG metrics - only Rotherham below them.
Without the funds available to go and spend big on getting a striker, it's down to Heckingbottom to set them up in a way to encourage goals. Tuesday could have been a trial run for this with a hugely successful result.
Against an Oxford side who have conceded chances across their games so far, the visitors can strike.
Odds correct at 1750 BST (28/08/24)
Swindon vs Notts County
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/10
Notts County come into this contest on the back of a 4-1 victory over Grimsby. Hardly a surprise when we consider their performances before that.
Stuart Maynard's side have created chances worth 8.55 expected goals (xG) across their four games so far (including the Carabao Cup) - nine goals coming and it could have easily been more.
This is a team built with an attacking mindset and it's starting to pay off following a slow start. It's worth taking the 29/20 on NOTTS COUNTY TO WIN.
I was originally considering backing the 10/11 on Notts to score two or more goals, but Swindon's form so far has been bad enough to convince me to just go with the win.
They've failed to score in either of their last two games, with the equaliser at Chesterfield the only league goal they've netted so far.
Even worse is the fact that they're struggling to create chances too. It may be a case of one goal being enough for the away side.
Odds correct at 1750 BST (28/08/24)
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